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There is no A.I.

newyorker.com

181–190 of 523 posts

Re: There is no A.I.

#181
post #68

The elephant in the room in these discussions of AI is the concept of the corporation. Most of the things people are worried about AI doing are things corporations already do. Deceptive marketing, exploiting customer information, conspiring to keep prices high, creating distractions from things companies are doing, setting up monopolies, lying to customers - the usual. With AI, this can be automated. Most of this is…

LLMs are linguistic mirrors, after all.

We have no idea what they are. Their emergent properties remain unexplained, so soundbites like "linguistic mirror" are like saying "brains are organs, after all".

Re: There is no A.I.

#182
post #68

The elephant in the room in these discussions of AI is the concept of the corporation. Most of the things people are worried about AI doing are things corporations already do. Deceptive marketing, exploiting customer information, conspiring to keep prices high, creating distractions from things companies are doing, setting up monopolies, lying to customers - the usual. With AI, this can be automated. Most of this is…

We should not try to achieve consumer protection via laws, like GDPR, that bureaucratically regiment private interaction. Consumer protection should be promoted through technological means, e.g the EU could have funded development of fingerprintless browser technologies, zero-knowledge proof based identity verification, etc, instead of through GDPR.

(Largely) fingerprintless browsers exist: Just use Firefox and enable the "resist fingerprinting" setting.

If you do, you will find that large parts of the web become unusable, with CAPTCHAs and challenges everywhere, some of them too difficult for even a human to solve.

That's why we need laws.

Re: There is no A.I.

#183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GDP is measured both as production and as consumption. The figures have to be the same, within a "statistical discrepancy". The consumption is final consumption: goods and services used by households. You are asserting that households will each have 100 times the income that they do now (and be spending the same proportion of income as they do now). Edit: I believe that if most companies, or even a significant minori…

I'm saying that many things that cost $100 in 2020 will cost less than $1 for the exact same thing in 2028. It is already happening in 2023. How much would it cost in 2020 to get a 2000 word essay written at a 10th grade level? What is the cost of the same service today? When a service costs goes down 99% that 99% goes directly into GDP growth.

There may well be the occasional service that drops 100x in price, but that would apply only to a small fraction of GDP. Most goods and services are already pretty well optimized. Amdahl's law applies and means that claims of rapid order of magnitude GDP growth are completely ridiculous.

Disruption is likely, yes, but we're talking about different orders of magnitude here.

And GP has a point. AI affects the supply side of the economy, but sustained development depends on the demand side. Given the overall political climate, the effect of AI on the demand side is far from clear.

Re: There is no A.I.

#184

This article initially seems to be arguing over semantics, saying that AI isn't AGI, which most people would agree with. Then talks about data dignity, which is interesting but a bit of a tangent. My understanding of the concern over AGI, or even an all-powerful "AI" isn't that it's not truly self-aware, but rather that it's motives are not in line with humanity's motives. It doesn't matter if it trains on data by hu…

> This article initially seems to be arguing over semantics

This article is conducting the same goal post shift operation that happens every time machines reach another fraction of human capability. Ironically, we're maybe a year or so from the day when one can generate an issue of The New Yorker given a handful of recent event headlines and a few photos.

Re: There is no A.I.

#185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jaron has an amazing publicist. I challenge anyone to read Wikipedia’s history of VR ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_reality#History ) and assess him to fairly be called a founder. There was serious work being done for over a decade before he even started his firm; VPL never came close to being a standard and the VR tech today has hardly any relation to his “post symbolic” language. He’s certainly a very sm…

It's absolutely ludicrous nonsense. It's like saying someone invented the idea of 'wondering what would happen if the sun blew up'. VR is a trivial idea that pretty much everyone has thought about at some point. It's implementation is hard to do, and if I had to point to anyone there, it'd be Carmack who's probably done the most.

> VR is a trivial idea that pretty much everyone has thought about at some point.

I agree, but to be fair, grandiose misattributions are just how the field of philosophy works. Plato is commonly credited with the idea that humans have an immortal soul. I'm 100% sure that idea is tens of thousands of years old, and when I hear academics attribute it to him, I immediately discard everything else that comes out of their mouths because such claims just demonstrate a complete lack of critical thinking.

Re: There is no A.I.

#186
post #89

All of these arguments seem to think that the brain isn't also generating a statistical ordering of semantic words and actions. Obviously the brain has a way more complex network of subsystems with various specialties than the artificial models we have today and is able to generalize language, math, and positional reasoning and mix it with the older parts of the brain for reward and training mechanisms and it can do…

To me, the reason is rather simply: you cannot solve a problem you don't understand. And we don't understand how we understand, period.

Evolution didn't understand a darn thing, and yet it created us.

Re: There is no A.I.

#187
post #68

The elephant in the room in these discussions of AI is the concept of the corporation. Most of the things people are worried about AI doing are things corporations already do. Deceptive marketing, exploiting customer information, conspiring to keep prices high, creating distractions from things companies are doing, setting up monopolies, lying to customers - the usual. With AI, this can be automated. Most of this is…

> Once AI systems can outperform CEOs Random number generator can outperform more than half of the CEOs. That's not why we have CEOs. Gamblers are a superstitious bunch and they love their lucky monkeys. So they put into law that they are entitled to one lucky monkey per corporation.

I don't know why you are getting downvoted. You speak the truth. My only nitpick is that it is a pseudo random number generator.

Actually, I do know why you are getting downvoted. You speak the truth.

Re: There is no A.I.

#188
post #68

The elephant in the room in these discussions of AI is the concept of the corporation. Most of the things people are worried about AI doing are things corporations already do. Deceptive marketing, exploiting customer information, conspiring to keep prices high, creating distractions from things companies are doing, setting up monopolies, lying to customers - the usual. With AI, this can be automated. Most of this is…

We will always need a charismatic human being to be the figurehead of an organization, so I don’t think AI will ever replace CEOs. They will wind up making the important decisions though.

... perhaps, but the "embodied Turing test" has already become the typical term to describe the new goal post in most ML papers - meaning that (since the usual Turing test was already completed and surpassed by large amounts several years ago) the new goal is to be able to have a system that given the choice between a real human in front of them, and a humanoid robot that looks like a human in front of them (think Westworld), humans are incapable of determining which is which (using proper statistics).

This terminology is becoming widely used by prominent AI researchers at e.g. Deepmind (Botvinick et al), Stanford (Finn et al), MIT, Northeastern, Meta, etc. as we have to switch to a new goal in lieu of the new advancements that have been coming up in that past few years. Importantly, this shift has been happening behind the scenes independent of this 'OpenAI' craze, although it's obviously made a select portion of the advancements made accessible by the public. There is much more going on than just the GPT series that few people are engaging with, but much is hidden in the literature.

To your point - it's of course extremely strange to conceive of - but while the quirks of human forms may be a useful tool at the moment, there isn't anything necessarily fundamental that requires it for long term.

Re: There is no A.I.

#189

GPT4 appears very intelligent when you discuss program code with it. It simply crazy; it can write SNOBOL4 code to extract a field from /etc/passwd. When you discuss other things, it goes off the rails a lot more. For instance, I have had it quote some passages of classic English poetry to me, stating blankly that those passages contain certain words. The passages did not contain any traces of those words or even rem…

> That's not where the goalposts are for the definition of AI.

We've well past that goalpost, like decades ago, if you haven't realized.

The simplest form of AI is just a series of if-else statements (expert system). A highly sophisticated network of conditional statements can make fully informed decisions way faster and more accurate than any human mind.

Re: There is no A.I.

#190

Just another poor person in a stage of grief. LLMs are effective at both memorization and reasoning. They are inevitable in the same way trains were inevitable. Let's just figure out how best to use these and move forward as we always have.

Great, when are they going to start solving hard problems? So far what we have is a rather unreliable collater.
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