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Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

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Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#181
post #24

It's been a while since they stopped innovating. Although Google, Maps, Youtube are of daily use they are monetized exclusively by advertising which is annoying and hated by many. It has been many years since Google has launched an innovative new product. I don't think ChatGPT will gain daily traction after this hype. Anyway we could say that MSFT and AMZN have demostrated more power to innovate with different busine…

>It has been many years since Google has launched an innovative new product. Stadia launched in 2019.

And it's dead.

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#182

The gaming of SEO has been quietly destroying the utility of search writ large as a mechanism for quite a while. Over the last year, its become palpable. Google has such utility in this regard that in some cases, a hallucinating lie-machine offers better answer than an index of what information is available on the internet. This issue with with Googles failure to respond to the deluge of SEO driven content in their s…

The quality of Google search has decreased so much over the last few years that I had to resort to using Yandex, a company that has a budget that is orders of magnitude smaller that the Big G and is under the control of a dictatorship.

Google search has two huge problems: SEO and censorship. Search for anything related to products/torrents/streams/politics on Google and your results will SUCK, due to one of the two reasons stated above.

The recent Yandex hack/leak has the cynic in me connecting the dots and, seeing how Google search seems to be facing REAL threats to it's dominance since it's creation... maybe some guys with the deepest pockets in the world are starting to enter WAR mode.

Destroying Yandex advantages on the SEO battlefield by way of divulging their parameters to the world would be the Franz Ferdinand assassination moment of the Great Search War.

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#183
I'm old enough that I remember switching between Yahoo, AskJeeves, AltaVista, and others, before abandoning them all for Google. I also remember experimenting with a friend to test the search engines, and I remember the question/query I used to perform the test: I had (at the time) a vague recollection that the level of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans near the Panama Canal is different; that in addition to raising ships over the isthmus, the canal has to raise them overall in one direction, and lower them in the other. That seems bizarre, since the oceans are connected south of South America, but that was my memory, so I asked the search engines. Google was the one engine that returned sites that confirmed my vague memory.

So of course, I just tried this with ChatGPT. It glitched mid-response, but here's the entire exchange:

Me: Is the level of the ocean the same on both sides of the Panama Canal?

ChatGPT: No, the ocean level is not the same on both sides of the Panama Canal. The Panama Canal is a man-made waterway that connects the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean, and its locks raise and lower ships to accommodate differences in sea level between the two oceans. -- Load failed -- I hit retry The Atlantic Ocean side of the canal is higher than the Pacific Ocean side, with a difference in elevation of approximately 26 meters (85 feet). This difference in elevation is compensated for by a system of locks, which raise and lower ships to the appropriate level for transit through the canal. The locks fill with water from the higher ocean and drain into the lower ocean, allowing ships to pass from one ocean to the other without having to navigate significant differences in sea level.

Me: Why is the level of the ocean different?

ChatGPT: The difference in sea level between the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Panama Canal is due to various geological and oceanographic factors.

One of the main reasons is the shape of the landmass and ocean basins. The Atlantic Ocean is relatively shallow and has a broader continental shelf, while the Pacific Ocean is deeper and has a narrower shelf. This shape influences the ocean currents and tides, and helps to maintain a difference in sea level between the two oceans.

Another factor is the prevailing winds and currents in the region. The trade winds in the Pacific and the prevailing westerlies in the Atlantic both play a role in shaping the sea levels on their respective sides of the canal.

Additionally, the location of the Panama Canal at the narrowest point of the Central American isthmus has a significant impact on the difference in sea level between the two oceans. The geography of the region funnels ocean currents and water into the narrow channel, leading to differences in water pressure and sea level on either side.

In summary, the difference in sea level between the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Panama Canal is due to a combination of geological and oceanographic factors, including the shape of the landmass and ocean basins, prevailing winds and currents, and the geography of the region.

-- comment -- Although ChatGPT is correct that the levels differ, it is wrong about the amount: it's nowhere near 85 feet. It gives believable reasons for the difference, but doesn't mention tides, which (as I understand it) are a significant factor. It also doesn't mention salinity, which (again, as I understand it) is also a factor. I gave it a chance to catch the error:

Me: Is the difference really 85 feet?

ChatGPT: The difference in elevation between the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Panama Canal is approximately 26 meters, or approximately 85 feet. However, it's worth noting that this figure can vary slightly due to tides, seasonal changes, and other factors. The exact difference in elevation can also depend on the specific location within the canal, as some areas may be slightly higher or lower than others. Nevertheless, the difference in elevation between the two sides is typically around 85 feet.

-- Comment -- No luck correcting that 85 feet number. I also asked about tides and salinity:

Me: Do tides or salinity contribute to the difference?

ChatGPT: Tides and salinity can contribute to the difference in sea level between the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Panama Canal, but the main factor is the shape of the landmass and ocean basins, the prevailing winds and currents, and the geography of the region.

Tides do have an impact on the sea level in the canal, as they can cause fluctuations in the water level on both sides. However, the impact of tides on the difference in sea level between the two oceans is relatively small compared to the other factors mentioned above.

Salinity can also influence the sea level, as differences in salinity can cause water to expand or contract, leading to changes in sea level. However, the impact of salinity on the difference in sea level between the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Panama Canal is also relatively small, as differences in salinity in the canal are primarily caused by fresh water inputs from rivers and rainfall, rather than differences in ocean salinity.

In summary, while tides and salinity can contribute to the difference in sea level in the Panama Canal, the main factor is the shape of the landmass and ocean basins, the prevailing winds and currents, and the geography of the region.

-- Comment -- Much has been made of ChatGPT's (sometimes unfounded) confidence. I don't know enough about the ocean-level subject to judge here. Clearly ChatGPT is confident, but is it correct? I don't know. Given that a quick Google search wasn't able to convince me that ChatGPT is wrong (apart from the 85 feet thing) I'm calling this even on the facts. The experience asking ChatGPT was clearly easier than Google.

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see this sort of comment a lot, and I honestly don't know what it's talking about. What are people expecting out of Google that it's not delivering? It can only index stuff that's on the Web. Stuff on the Web is, contrary to what is popularly asserted, only a tiny fraction of all human knowledge. I think people are forgetting how bad search was before Google. Google drove Web directories to extinction. Remember Yah…

I also challenge people’s memory of it being so much better. Was it really? Or just different?

It was mostly better.

The competition for many kinds of search terms is causing a race to the bottom. E.g. tech docs, lyrics, recipes, reviews.

That’s why Kago has a lense for “non-spammy recipe searches” — there’s just so much noise on popular, easily copyable material.

You don’t get the best site by popular vote like PageRank was known for, you get the one that generates the most ad revenue.

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#185

It's been a while since they stopped innovating. Although Google, Maps, Youtube are of daily use they are monetized exclusively by advertising which is annoying and hated by many. It has been many years since Google has launched an innovative new product. I don't think ChatGPT will gain daily traction after this hype. Anyway we could say that MSFT and AMZN have demostrated more power to innovate with different busine…

Some have postulated that this might be Google's Blackberry moment. On the flip side I wonder if its actually more like its Dropbox moment.

The press loves a David and Goliath story; the young disruptor versus the stodgy disrupted.[1] At that time, Dropbox was David, coming out of nowhere in a hurry and had a product that seemingly should be so obvious for Google to launch but hadn't - making Google seem antiquated and slow.

Fast forward a couple of years (aka a decade) and Dropbox is still going ok but Google Drive is by far more ubiquitous.

I guess only time will tell.

[1] Dropbox Versus The World https://www.fastcompany.com/3042436/dropbox-versus-the-world

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#186
post #7

I think it’s interesting to consider why touchscreen mobile phones won out over their predecessors. Touchscreens are the worst interface option. The feedback of feeling a button, or anything made for the job, is better than typing without specific feedback onto a screen. It won out because of you don’t have a set interface it’s bettor. Now for search, chat gpt will likely always be less reliable than a list of result…

>Touchscreens are worse than buttons Hottest take I've seen on here for a while. In a very specific, very limited set of mobile usecases, buttons may offer a more pleasant experience than a touchscreen. I only say that because there's usually exceptions to any statement, but I can't actually think of one. Touchscreens didn't win because of some lazy sheep-like consumerism, they won because the product is superior. If…

Trivial counterpoint: you cannot correctly operate a touchscreen without looking at it (unless the display is essentially one single interactive object). Trying to use a music player via a touch screen while running or cycling is basically impossible unless you look the screen. For this purpose, buttons are better.

When defining "better" you need to indicate the metrics you are using. LM's might be "better" when measured with certain metrics, but like most things are worse when measured using other metrics.

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#187

I don't understand this hype and I feel like I'm looking at different products than everyone else is. There are very few complaints I have about Google that I think this technology helps solve, and for most of my complaints, getting summaries of searches makes the situation worse, not better. To be completely clear: even if the AI was perfect , I don't know that I want even an actual human being to sit down and summa…

You know what it reminds me a lot of? CPedia. It’s basically the same concept, though, from the sound of it, much more capably executed.

I do see LLMs as potentially more useful for “fanciful” queries, like “what can I make with kale, tomatoes, and mushrooms?”

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see this sort of comment a lot, and I honestly don't know what it's talking about. What are people expecting out of Google that it's not delivering? It can only index stuff that's on the Web. Stuff on the Web is, contrary to what is popularly asserted, only a tiny fraction of all human knowledge. I think people are forgetting how bad search was before Google. Google drove Web directories to extinction. Remember Yah…

I also challenge people’s memory of it being so much better. Was it really? Or just different?

It was an honest attempt on the crawlers' part and it was a more level playing field. If you didn't find what you wanted on lycos, you could look on Yahoo or Alta Vista or WebCrawler or something instead. For a time there were meta Search engines that allowed you to search other search engine amalgamated results.

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#189
post #52
post #31

Microsoft's integration of ChatGPT with Bing is really bad. No-one wants a busy search page with a side-bar of ChatGPT; what's the point of that? The correct interface for ChatGPT + search is just...ChatGPT. But it can also show you a list of web search results, when it's appropriate. A super-clean interface, that always shows you exactly what you want. That would be a killer feature and represent a real threat to Go…

As someone else said, the problem is ChatGPT lies straight to your face, whereas at least Google's answers are based on structured data by someone. It's traceable, whereas I would not trust ChatGPT ever to tell me the correct temperature to cook a steak.

The correct temperature to sous vide a steak depends on the desired level of doneness. The following temperatures are guidelines for cooking steaks to different levels of doneness:

Rare: 120-125°F (49-52°C) Medium-Rare: 130-135°F (54-57°C) Medium: 140-145°F (60-63°C) Medium-Well: 150-155°F (66-68°C) Well-Done: 160°F (71°C) and above

It's important to note that cooking steaks at low temperatures for extended periods of time can result in a more tender and flavorful finished product, compared to cooking steaks at high temperatures for a shorter amount of time.

Looks great to me.

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#190
post #143
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their giant teams are an organizational failure then. Product reviews alone, whether it is enterprise software or sports clothing should be something that they can easily comb through by hand, as humans, and uprank sites that are putting out more than affiliate link assemblies.

Absolutely: the challenge is that any signal that you use to identify "good websites" from "bad websites" will be adversarially optimized by incredibly motivated people. You are dealing with a moving target that has a huge financial incentive. It's a very difficult problem.

I don't agree. You start whitelisting good content manually. If babygearlab is the best result for baby gear, you start hardcoding it. If seriouseats is the best result for recipes, you hard code it. If someone better comes along, they get moved up the priority list.

You figure out a way to crowdsource certain decisions and establish who you can trust. Ask them questions with right and wrong answers. You start to tackle it one product category at a time. Instead of pagerank, which was a web of who linked to who" you start figuring which voters you have who consistently turn in good feedback.

This is some form of metamoderation that slashdot tried to implement.

If you are going to be a tastemaker, stop hiding behind "the algorithm" having some mind of its own that cant be controlled.

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