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Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

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Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#181

Post by abirch »

ryanSrich wrote: post #121
grey-area wrote: post #112

A global recession is coming against a backdrop of the Fed raising rates, that is going to be very painful. A lot of people here don't seem to realise this is the case or are in denial. This is a bubble bursting, this is serious. Lots of companies are laying off workers or at least freezing hiring because they anticipate earnings cratering, or are already seeing it happen. They haven't reported on it yet, but they wi…

> A global recession is coming against a backdrop of the Fed raising rates I believe we're going to double dip. We already dipped before the holidays. We'll see one more very painful quarter, which may not be Q1, but Q2 or Q3. From what I've seen, Series B+ is essentially impossible right now unless you're in the top 0.0001% of companies. Even then, if you're that operationally efficient, you might even hold off on f…

Elon did in the words of Peter Drucker, amputation without diagnosis.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#182

Post by lumost »

htkibar wrote: post #171
idopmstuff wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There will not be a soft landing. The reality is we cannot see the future of our incredibly complex, ever-changing economy. Sure, this hasn't happened in the past, but on the other hand the economy today is vastly different than it was even fifty years ago. Not to say we couldn't end in a recession - of course that is a distinct possibility - but the reality is that we don't have a ton of history to draw on when it…

End goal seems to be the eradication of newly emerging middle class, and to tilt the scale to workers' disadvantage. Huzzah. /s

Tbh it does feel This way. The fed seems to be pursuing a policy where asset prices cannot fall and wages cannot rise. This is a path to feudalism.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#183

Post by themitigating »

RC_ITR wrote: post #139
idopmstuff wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I can tell, layoffs seem concentrated among high-earning folks - I can definitely see how anyone browsing HN would think we're headed straight for a recession. But it seems like overall, and especially in lower-wage jobs, employment is still humming along and people are very much not getting laid off. That actually really gives me hope for a soft landing - those high-wage folks are much less likely to have…

One interesting concept is that falling inequality will look exactly like this. Wealthy people have gotten used to increasing the gap and therefore assume that trouble at the top is much worse below. But what’s actually panning out is that Internet technology is great at replacing white collar jobs and awful at replacing blue collar jobs (I don’t think electricians are losing sleep over ChatGPT).

But technology is replacing entry level jobs Self checkout, food delivery robots, robotic waitresses, etc.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#184

Post by californical »

idopmstuff wrote: post #153
notch656c wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I wonder if you've shorted the equities markets to the greatest degree practically possible given your financial situation? If not, then I think you're phrasing things with too great a degree of absoluteness. The equities market doesn't have great correlation with the common pleb's job outlook so it makes no sense to short the equities market based on these kind of predictions.

The prediction was that we are guaranteed to go into a recession. Are you suggesting that we might have a recession in which the stock market doesn't decline? Bear in mind that this is a situation in which we can be sure the Fed will not prop it up, since they're the cause of it going down in the first place. If we're making predictions about recessions based on history, then it seems pretty clear that the result of…

I think the issue is that we’re already in a recession, everyone has been talking about this for months, and the stock market has taken a giant turn downward already last year. It could stay at its current level for a year or two before rising again, but the stock market has already been expecting a recession and that’s likely why it’s this low already.

It doesn’t have to drop more in a recession because it already has! People losing their jobs and spending less is already predicted by Wall St.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#185

Post by silisili »

themitigating wrote: post #180
grey-area wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it seems like overall, and especially in lower-wage jobs, employment is still humming along and people are very much not getting laid off. There will not be a soft landing. When has there ever been a soft landing and how would raising rates into a recession ever result in one? Raising rates takes 1 year to come through to the real economy - we haven't even seen the impact yet, only on stock prices which foreshado…

"Unemployment is the goal of this Fed policy - that is the point - cause unemployment so that inflation goes away." Why would this be a goal?

The end goal is to reduce inflation. The goal of policy is to increase unemployment, which itself is a tool used towards the end goal.

This isn't conspiracy speak, JPowell has made this very clear.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#186

Post by themitigating »

ryanSrich wrote: post #126
warent wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EDIT: Thank you all for generously sharing your time in writing up such thoughtful answers. -- Would love to hear more on your perspective / insight. This is all intentional, right? My understanding is that the fed is leaning into this particularly hard in order to dislodge the stubborn housing bubble. For an individual (someone who isn't a current business owner), does this basically mean we should continue stockpil…

2008 lasted nearly 17 months. The hard part is deciding when the recession actually started. The media and government is in denial, so they'd tell you we aren't even in a recession yet. But the rule of thumb is typically two negative quarters of GDP growth, which we hit this summer. If you run a VC backed business my suggestion is 24-30 months of runway is a good starting point. As far as individuals go, it's not a b…

"The media and government is in denial, so they'd tell you we aren't even in a recession yet."

There are costant headlines about layoffs. Also you said that a recession has a defintion, if that hasn't happened how is the media and government in denial?

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#187

Post by yebyen »

themitigating wrote: post #180
grey-area wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it seems like overall, and especially in lower-wage jobs, employment is still humming along and people are very much not getting laid off. There will not be a soft landing. When has there ever been a soft landing and how would raising rates into a recession ever result in one? Raising rates takes 1 year to come through to the real economy - we haven't even seen the impact yet, only on stock prices which foreshado…

"Unemployment is the goal of this Fed policy - that is the point - cause unemployment so that inflation goes away." Why would this be a goal?

The idea is I think that inflation is caused by too much money supply in circulation, caused by overemployment, and the only cure for that is less employment. It's a lot like how inflation and deflation are two sides of the same coin, but you wouldn't "root for deflation" because that's just the opposite extreme – Fed doesn't want everyone to lose their jobs, "just a healthy amount"

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#188

Post by lmm »

dougSF70 wrote: post #117
lmm wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think easy money is coming back. There's still a bunch of wealth that doesn't know anywhere to find returns, that hasn't changed.

But with inflation driving up interest rates, that wealth will appreciate sitting as cash.

High inflation means it's all the more important to find a return. You don't get interest from holding cash, you get interest from lending it out; on a personal scale maybe you can do that by lending to your bank but for those looking for a return on large amounts of capital it's not that simple.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#189

Post by oxfordmale »

coffeebeqn wrote: post #132
idopmstuff wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I can tell, layoffs seem concentrated among high-earning folks - I can definitely see how anyone browsing HN would think we're headed straight for a recession. But it seems like overall, and especially in lower-wage jobs, employment is still humming along and people are very much not getting laid off. That actually really gives me hope for a soft landing - those high-wage folks are much less likely to have…

Even more it still seems like it’s mainly companies who doubled their headcount since COVID started because someone extrapolated the madness to last forever? I sure hope the first in line for layoffs are the people who thought that was a great idea

Unfortunately, CEOs have the privilege of sacking other people if they don't do their own job properly.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#190

Post by mdorazio »

abirch wrote: post #179
jupp0r wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unemployment is at a record low. US economy added 223k new jobs in December. US Q3 GDP increased annualized 3.2% over Q2. Some companies are doing layoffs (mainly those that overhired during COVID), others aren't. Look at the data instead of clickbait headlines and everything looks much less bleak. If you are really certain you can forecast how the economy is going to do with high accuracy, get a job at some hedge fu…

Have you seen housing? https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2022/12/01/real-estate-... it's going to get hit even harder. Unemployment is low due to a lot of early retirement/retirement. It is obvious we're headed for a recession, the question is how bad will it be. Will China's housing market collapse?

Which part are you referring to? Price increases slowing and stalling? Because that’s not exactly the end of the world for the housing market.
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