Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Nothing about building software, especially innovative software is predictable. This is basically exactly the point. It's incredibly difficult to predict building 'large software'. So, lets try a few things to help make it a little bit more predictable by trying to predict smaller increments. > Why do we need predictable deliveries? Say I'm building a piece of software - maybe an app the audience would use - for th…
This argument comes up a lot but this is a very narrow case. Neither you nor I are building software for the super bowl, and if we were building something with such high stakes we should start way, way early and concentrate on core functionality first. There's no real deadline for the feature we decided we needed last week.
I think this sort of thing - where what you're building has external hard-to-move dependencies - comes up more often than you think. Those election visualisations on NYT didn't build themselves. There's often a bunch of less-hard-but-still-inconvenient dependencies as well - you're building software for hardware, or there's advertising campaigns in planning/motion.