Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade • Hacker News Board

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#181

Post by sorokod » Fri, Sep 16, 2022, 6:08 PM UTC

foobarian wrote: post #88

coldcode wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read a lot of these type of predictions, often you see some people say it's a great time to buy, and others it's a bad time to buy, and generally you will only remember the people who guessed correctly, so none of this helps you today at all. Every time those people who got lucky will appear in some future ad or article making a new prediction, and generally fewer will be lucky twice. In the long run, everyone is l…

Your comment makes me realize that in the medium term, after most of the unlucky predictors drop off, you are statistically likely to be left with a few really lucky ones (i.e. if a thousand people are tossing coins, you're likely to get one guy with a streak of 10 heads), and these individuals are perfect to put on pedestals as rare and brilliant talents.

Pretty much like the brilliant founders of successful startups.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#182

Post by seshagiric » Fri, Sep 16, 2022, 6:08 PM UTC

When drive into my neighborhood downtown areas, I still see 'hiring' boards at lot of places with a healthy % advertising higher than minimum pay hourly rate. At the same time I also over heard complaints at grocery & super markets on how things are getting costlier. An elderly gentlemen was complaining how he used to get 3 items but now gets only 2 for the same price. Even as a layman, I think the high employment rates and healthy housing/stock markets mean there is lot of money in the market which is driving demand which in turn driving inflation. With Fed tightening up interest rates, money may stop flowing into the market yet and hence ease the demand eventually inflation. A likely side effect is companies have no money to fund growth and hence recession (and job cuts etc.). Next one year is going to be tight.

However, its still a stretch to say the stock market will crash, stay flat etc. etc. I think these predictions are more media created (they are excellent click bait) than actual warnings from genius investors. For example, if you follow Michael Burry's tweet it's more of a rant or running commentary (combined with partisan view point) than doomsday predictions.

The bigger problem in my opinion is partisan politics is stealing attention from more important problems. Dems are wrong with the number of freebies being thrown in but Reps are also wrong ignoring climate change (or kicking up the abortion repertoire). The checks and balances thing is not working currently.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#183

Post by bigmattystyles » Fri, Sep 16, 2022, 6:08 PM UTC

Once you learn about Paul the octopus, it puts all off these predictions into perspective. Predictions have low reputations costs when wrong because the public will just forget about it. If he’s right, he’ll remind us at every chance he gets. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_the_Octopus

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#184

Post by deltree7 » Fri, Sep 16, 2022, 6:08 PM UTC

nprateem wrote: post #130

anm89 wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah some clowns named Ray and Warren also keeps crying wolf about how the economy has issues too. These guys have no idea what they are talking about! I don't think they even trade.

Buffett has also been predicting the mother of all crashes since 2016. Lesson: never listen to experts unless you discover one with a time machine. Like they say, more wealth has been lost trying to time the market than in crashes.

What? Buffett never predicts crashes.

His Mantra is keep identifying great businesses and keep buying it

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#185

Post by tunesmith » Fri, Sep 16, 2022, 6:16 PM UTC

nprateem wrote: post #132

lexapro wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but if you have a lump sum of money it's still better to invest everything at once if you plan to hold it for decades. Vanguard has a good paper on that titled "Dollar-cost averaging just means taking risk later". And as you get close to retirement, you need to be mindful about sequence of returns risk.

Got a link please? That surely depends on having a > 20 year time horizon

This one isn't bad:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/wpqsno/lumpsum_...

And here's a question. Say you have a windfall and you're deciding whether to lump sum or DCA it. And you decide to DCA. So therefore, why wouldn't you liquidate your entire investment portfolio and also DCA that the same way?

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#186

Post by greenhatman » Fri, Sep 16, 2022, 6:17 PM UTC

chiffre01 wrote: post #114

Looks like this guy's been making these kind of predictions for at least the last 10 years: https://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/04/druckenmiller-get-out-of-the... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4W58zLwdDzM https://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/03/stanley-druckenmiller-heres-... https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/busi...

He's going to be right eventually. Now seems like a likely time for him to be right.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#187

Post by jdhn » Fri, Sep 16, 2022, 6:22 PM UTC

mountainriver wrote: post #148

I have a very different position on this. I think we will see the most growth we’ve ever seen in the next decade and it will be powered by AI. I think most of these investors don’t really understand how close we are to have very useful AI and what it’s impact will be. We are roughly on the verge of another industrial revolution

>We are roughly on the verge of another industrial revolution

I was told that the "internet of things" would bring about unparalleled gains in manufacturing, and then that very quietly went away. I'm not holding my breath for AI to deliver on what IoT was supposed to do.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#188

Post by rufus_foreman » Fri, Sep 16, 2022, 6:23 PM UTC

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #82

rufus_foreman wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With dividends reinvested you get -25.096%, https://dqydj.com/dow-jones-return-calculator/ . S&P 500 is -3.745%.

So one of the worst long-term periods in history - the S&P was still ~50% better than cash. What else is a passive investor gonna do?

10-year treasuries, coupon payments reinvested, would have returned 18.156% adjusted for inflation over the same period, https://dqydj.com/treasury-return-calculator/.

They returned over 36% in 1982 alone!

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#189

Post by aaroninsf » Fri, Sep 16, 2022, 6:30 PM UTC

No one knows what the hell is going to happen, the only certainty is that compared to the long slowly-eroded geopolitical and economic stability of the late 20th century for the capitalist world, black swan events are much more likely and their impact much greater.

The next few years may see Russia collapse. Or Russia use nuclear weapons to prevent ceding Crimea. We may see accelerated catastrophic climate change and knock-on effects like mass migration or as the Thai floods only a few years demonstrated, that knock out of critical infrastructure for our globalized economy is only one bad storm away. We may see low-level domestic terror campaigns in the USA dressed up as "civil war" or, we may see a de facto internal balkanization with erection of internal regulatory barriers to interstate commerce and logistics. We may see China's economy collapse with calls for historically-enshrined dynastic change resulting in internal chaos. We may see next-wave pandemics.

Or maybe none of these things and the ship rights and we sail quickly forward into renewed economic prosperity.

No one knows, least of all Stanley.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#190

Post by dkrich » Fri, Sep 16, 2022, 6:32 PM UTC

llampx wrote: post #170

bidirectional wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ackman said hell was coming, was appropriately hedged using instruments which would appreciate when hell did indeed come, and made $2bn on his hedge which offset the losses in his equity positions. He didn't net profit $2bn.

He appeared on TV crying while his firm was unrolling their hedges and buying stock for the rebound. Never trust media.

Ackman has a very mixed track record and has not had particularly great returns. To believe that he somehow predicted the entire sequence of events is being incredibly generous. Earlier this year he laid out an unbelievably lazy bull case for Netflix when it was around $350/share and said he had accumulated over a billion dollar position only to sell it a month later a massive loss saying the story had changed.