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Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

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Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#181

Post by godelski »

btilly wrote: post #180
godelski wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> so the guy who was President for the last 8 years leading up to the crash must be blameless. That's not the argument being made. The argument being made is that actions under a president outlast the president and have to be considered as part of their legacy. Bush isn't blameless but that also doesn't mean Clinton gets off Scot-free. The argument is about how attribution to current events doesn't solely lie upon th…

Saying "blameless" overstated the case. But the comment I was responding to said: > ...what led to the 2009 financial crisis was mostly done under the Clinton administration... That goes well beyond "Clinton doesn't get off Scot-free" all of the way to, "Clinton should get most of the blame." I'm firmly in agreement that Clinton contributed. But I'm going to need serious convincing that what he did was more important…

> "Clinton should get most of the blame."

I apologize, this was not my intent.

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#182

Post by mistermann »

latchkey wrote: post #167
mistermann wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, it isn't just the internet that's funny, overall society/humanity is this way - we are swimming in it daily, and complain about it endlessly. I sometimes wonder if the reason no one seems super interested in fixing things is because we've been living in it for so long, we instinctively write it off as being "just the way it is" &/or "there's nothing you can do about it".

Stuff is literally engineered to create that sort of thinking. Case in point: trying to find a contact number, is intentionally buried on websites.

Oh for sure....but I am speaking extremely broadly....society and culture (two things that cover pretty much everything humans do), both "Western" and international.

We live on a planet, that much seems mostly agreed upon...and, we do various things in a various way(s), "that's how it is"...and, it produces the results we see around us (which some people think are great, others not so much).

We could try doing things massively differently than the way we do now and see what results that has. Or heck, we could even imagine doing things other ways, and imagine what results that might produce. Of course, people typically lose control of their imaginations when doing this...but maybe we should try not doing that.

The reality runtime we are in seems to afford us substantial optionality for experimentation - I propose we take advantage of this option.

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#183

Post by mrguyorama »

dillondoyle wrote: post #69
jononomo wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

support for democracy and the rule of law also comes to mind

It's funny how 15 years ago, if we asked for this study, the perception of which party that description belongs to would likely be flipped. Well not funny. More sad and terrifying.

No I don't think it would. Republicans always say they are for law and order and democrats aren't. Democrats usually say that they are for some form of light reform to prisons or justice, but often vote for more aggressive policies to not be called "lawless" or some nonesense.

The difference is, republicans have always been lying about being the party of law and order. Whether through Nixon, or Iran-Contra, or everything that happened with trump (which most republicans just pretend didn't happen), they've always said that the law should apply, and then ignored it for their own.

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#184

Post by mrguyorama »

JadeNB wrote: post #144
dnissley wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've noticed there is a tendency among folks on the left (and for all I know it's also true of folks on the right) where people who do as you say are cast out and labeled "centrists", creating a dynamic where internal criticism is silenced. I speak as someone who self-identified as on the left for many years, but no longer feels comfortable doing so because of how incurious and closed off to criticism the left has be…

> I've noticed there is a tendency among folks on the left (and for all I know it's also true of folks on the right) where people who do as you say are cast out and labeled "centrists", creating a dynamic where internal criticism is silenced. As to whether the right also does it, Eric Greitens literally released an ad showing him "RINO hunting" with a rifle (RINO meaning "Republican In Name Only"). Leftists may infig…

>As compared, for example, to the 1960s and 1970s, where bombing was a much more common tool of the left.

I'm a youngin, can you provide examples you are thinking of when you say this?

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#185

Post by dnissley »

mrguyorama wrote: post #184
JadeNB wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I've noticed there is a tendency among folks on the left (and for all I know it's also true of folks on the right) where people who do as you say are cast out and labeled "centrists", creating a dynamic where internal criticism is silenced. As to whether the right also does it, Eric Greitens literally released an ad showing him "RINO hunting" with a rifle (RINO meaning "Republican In Name Only"). Leftists may infig…

>As compared, for example, to the 1960s and 1970s, where bombing was a much more common tool of the left. I'm a youngin, can you provide examples you are thinking of when you say this?

Most prominently https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_Underground

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#186

Post by vannevar »

Just looking at the charts, I'm surprised by how accurately the trends were identified by the public. What the authors call "misperceptions" are in many cases just systematic errors in the absolute numbers, which frankly I would expect. The vast majority of the trend slopes are quite close to actual. I feel like the authors are reaching a bit for a controversial conclusion.

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#187

Post by exo-pla-net »

eliasmacpherson wrote: post #121
exo-pla-net wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The need for representative sampling is something understood by first year undergraduates on first exposure to the concept. What you've written is the reddit equivalent of criticizing a study with "correlation does not imply causation". Yeah, scientists are familiar with the idea, believe it or not. Scientists in fact go to great lengths to ensure their sampling is representative, and studies published in good journa…

Without getting into a snark, that is not a particularly good book to recommend. https://slate.com/technology/2016/12/kahneman-and-tversky-re... "Taken all together, the chapters Schimmack looked at earned an average grade of C-minus."

Without getting into snark, your very own article bolsters my point:

> The replication crisis in psychology does not extend to every line of inquiry, and just a portion of the work described in Thinking, Fast and Slow has been cast in shadows. Kahneman and Tversky’s own research, for example, turns out to be resilient. Large-scale efforts to recreate their classic findings have so far been successful. One bias they discovered—people’s tendency to overvalue the first piece of information that they get, in what is known as the “anchoring effect”—not only passed a replication test, but turned out to be much stronger than Kahneman and Tversky thought.

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#188

Post by exo-pla-net »

JabavuAdams wrote: post #151
exo-pla-net wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The need for representative sampling is something understood by first year undergraduates on first exposure to the concept. What you've written is the reddit equivalent of criticizing a study with "correlation does not imply causation". Yeah, scientists are familiar with the idea, believe it or not. Scientists in fact go to great lengths to ensure their sampling is representative, and studies published in good journa…

Do you have any data or evidence to support your claim that workers on Mechanical Turk are a representative sample of Americans? This is an extraordinary claim, given the incentives of the platform. Think like a hacker, or a poor person in India or Nigeria.

Anchoring effect. Read the section in Thinking Fast and Slow on the anchoring effect.

Re: Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

#189

Post by erybodyknows »

martijnvds wrote: post #107
imgabe wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if you could get good survey data by disguising it as a Buzzfeed quiz on Facebook. Just make the title something like "Which Kardashian are you?", then ask whatever questions you want and randomly select a Kardashian at the end.

"You are Gul Dukat."

‘Keeping up with the Cardassians’
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