I had always thought the supposed end of automaker dominance Detroit-style doomsday scenario was impossible for S.F., but turns out the normalization of remote work was all it took. The American software industry didn't need to end, it just had to go home.
NYC is doing great, as are quality-of-life focused cities like KC, Miami and Columbus. Maybe calling every critic in your town names and letting QoL go to absolute crap is the real driver of movement.
San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
181–190 of 622 posts
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#182From where I'm standing, productivity doesn't look so great. It's an open secret in my remote-heavy, North American west-coast social circle that everyone knocks off at 1-2pm when the east coast people are definitely logged off. Probably the east coast people are doing the same thing, but in the morning. Lots of happily phoning it in.
And many of these same folks have a propensity to being shut-ins. A few of the more outdoorsy types are out there living their best lives.
But from a large-scale, long-term economic competitivity standpoint, this arrangement doesn't feel sustainable. I pose myself the question: What will be the confluence of circumstances that will demand that we take our jobs more seriously?
Edit: speling
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#183Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#184Earlier quoted context omitted.
I also think there are a lot of people in California who don't want to RTO who aren't thinking about competing with jobs with people in a state with COL like Arkansas or Idaho. WFH is really going to depress wages for most tech workers.
Californians and the like are moving to Idaho, so the COL there will gradually increase towards parity. And perhaps Arkansas eventually? https://www.camdenarknews.com/news/2022/aug/31/will-climate-...
Everyone here is an avid Trump supporter and openly racist. They drive big pickup trucks everywhere. The mountains are too far away and horrible, everything here is terrible in every way no one should move here the entire state is terrible. The fish have 3 eyes and it is ugly as sin year round, again days 10 below are 0 are common and the roads are never taken care of. Thousands die every year trapped in their home from their houses freezing solid.
Again I warn you stay away Idaho sucks, tell all your friends. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1o33skCSN8
EDIT: Bug, bugs are everywhere, every horrible thing you have ever heard about any state multiple by 6 and Idaho is still worse. Everyone is carrying a gun everywhere, because you have to constantly shoot away wild animals and other people that try and maul you and eat you. If you've ever played a game in the Fallout series that is what all of Idaho is like. Idaho sucks tell all your friends.
EDIT EDIT: If you've already moved to ID it's not too late you can still escape to somewhere better, flee flee for your lives.
3rd EDIT: There is no shopping here either, Amazon can take over a week to deliver, we mostly barter at the country general store in potatoes, not to mention children are mauled by the dozens by bears just walking home from school, which is a one room school house 40 miles away. We have the worst schools in the country. Stay away if you value your children's future.
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#185Earlier quoted context omitted.
Free drugs of course, supported by the tax payer
I can't tell if you're being serious or not, but I feel it needs to be clarified. The reality is free drugs at safe injection sites, supported by the tax payer, is cheaper for the tax payer. Overdoses and emergency services for overdoses cost a LOT of money. "a period of 2 years and 3 months", "with a savings of over $2.3 million for the lifetime of the program"[0]. Roughly $1 MM per year for just the 1 city in this…
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#186Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#187Earlier quoted context omitted.
Drug use isn't associated with crime and filth until we make it so via harsh city policies. I would, however, like someone to clean the 4 different instances of poop I saw on my 3 block walk this morning.
You think drug use doesn't lead to crime?
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#188Residential crash is potentially already upon us, at least in the outskirts (East Bay for me). We've had our house on the market for over a month now, and nobody else in the neighborhood is selling either. Big changes from only 3 months ago, when sellers were closing in days.
I'd argue that a "crash" isn't really a "crash" if it comes after a 50% increase in 2 years. Anything short of a 20% correction is simply a reversion. If prices shot up 100% in 1 year, and then were down 3% in two months - no one would be talking about a crash.
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#189Earlier quoted context omitted.
I mean, SF residential prices are still super high, it seems like it oughta pencil out.
I think flooding the market in new living spaces would decrease demand, leading to lower rent.
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#190The city officials are asleep at the wheel. Blame it on remote work and pandemic as much as you want, but the reality is that the city was in decline even before that. It is too expensive to live in the city. It is too expensive to commute to the city. It is too expensive to feed yourself in the city. Crime is rampant. Drug use and filth is everywhere. Most importantly city has been hostile to tech and business owner…
FWIW, I know a lot of locals who graduated into tech or who were adjacent (EAs, front-office, etc.) and their lives are better for it, but there are lots who weren't appropriately positioned and missed the boat on the whole thing.