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AMD passes Intel in market cap

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Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#181

Post by unethical_ban »

adam_arthur wrote: post #121
unethical_ban wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bought at $5 and sold at 15 thinking I was so clever. Then I bought at 80 and held through 160, now it's at 96. I'm a long term bull on AMD, but I think the rocket left the atmosphere already. To me it's a blue chip. Intel nor AMD will ever go out of business, unless and until x86 itself dies and neither can pivot. AMD has a lock on consoles, it is the only competitor to Intel in x86, it basically can't go out of b…

Cloud vendors have been increasingly pushing their own chips. It's hard to see AMD having any pricing power in the long run, unless their chips are significantly better than what big tech can create on their own

The Gigacorps have done this, some of them. I have more interest in the ARM argument than in the "custom chip" argument, unless Amazon and co. decide to retail their processors.

Consoles, most OEMs, and all non-gigacorps will be buying off-the-shelf processors.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#182

Post by njarboe »

outworlder wrote: post #179
njarboe wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The top ten automakers have huge amounts of debt and pension liabilities. Tesla has neither. None of them are making profitable EVs at scale. Tesla has been hitting their goal of growing at 50% per year for a decade and plans to continue until they are making 20 million cars a year in 2030. Their gross margin on cars is the highest in the industry. The next 5 years are critical for the existing players and many will…

The P/E for Tesla suggest it is going to take decades(at the peak, over a century) for that valuation to make sense. Even if it grows to the point that it destroys all other automakers and become a monopoly, it's still too high. You can only sell so many cars. The valuation seems to be taking into account that Tesla is not only about cars, but also artificial intelligence, which would allow it to expand to other mark…

If Tesla does make 20 million cars that sell for an average of $50k and have net margins of 20%, their annual revenue would be $200 billion. If at that point they have the same PE as Apple has now (~25), that would be a market cap of $5 trillion. That would be a 6x gain from today just on regular auto sales. If the only side project that works out is Full Self Driving (which is the major focus of Tesla and occupies most of Musk's Tesla time) comes to pass, double that revenue would not be unreasonable. There are many things that could go wrong, but lots up possible upside.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#183

Post by BeetleB »

rapsey wrote: post #6
api wrote: post #4

One of the most destructive things you can do to a company is give them a near market monopoly for a while.

And put bean counters in charge.

This trope needs to be put to rest. Brian Krzanich was a tech insider and Intel fared poorly under him. The current CEO is as much of an insider, and it's still doing poorly under him.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#184

Post by noogle »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #135
rsp1984 wrote: post #125

Call me crazy but I think long term (10 years +) the Intel strategy of fabricating chips domestically is the correct choice. There's a ton of geopolitical pressure in this direction. The US simply doesn't want to be dependent on Taiwan for chips, for obvious reasons. Intel knows this and is trying to become the TSMC of the west. And frankly they're the only ones that can pull it off. I'd be surprised if 10 years from…

Spot on. Any large country that's NOT desperately building up fab facilities within the country right now is playing with fire. This stuff is the new oil. Insane how little of our modern life works without chips.

Is this about CPUs or all electronics?

Computer chips are in general a reliable hardware, and top-of-the-line CPUs are in general way more powerful than needed, so there is no need for cutting-edge manufacturing and also an embargo won't halt existing activities.

Simpler/embedded processors seem to be a generic product that can be manufactured by many countries, hindering embargo efforts.

Are chips more critical for a country than e.g. food? because many countries are not nutritionally self-sufficient.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#185

Post by spaceman_2020 »

noogle wrote: post #184
spaceman_2020 wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Spot on. Any large country that's NOT desperately building up fab facilities within the country right now is playing with fire. This stuff is the new oil. Insane how little of our modern life works without chips.

Is this about CPUs or all electronics? Computer chips are in general a reliable hardware, and top-of-the-line CPUs are in general way more powerful than needed, so there is no need for cutting-edge manufacturing and also an embargo won't halt existing activities. Simpler/embedded processors seem to be a generic product that can be manufactured by many countries, hindering embargo efforts. Are chips more critical for…

Both - CPUs, electronics, military gear, etc.

Strategic risks such as war, invasions, sanctions, etc. have to be dealt with on a decadal basis.

You have to ask: what's the current reality, and what's the trend?

The trend is pretty clear: our world is going to depend more on computers, not less. You have to prepare for a world where drones have replaced your fighter jets, where every citizen has a smartphone, and where your financial system will collapse without working computers and servers.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#186

Post by snird »

rsp1984 wrote: post #125

Call me crazy but I think long term (10 years +) the Intel strategy of fabricating chips domestically is the correct choice. There's a ton of geopolitical pressure in this direction. The US simply doesn't want to be dependent on Taiwan for chips, for obvious reasons. Intel knows this and is trying to become the TSMC of the west. And frankly they're the only ones that can pull it off. I'd be surprised if 10 years from…

Are you sure they will?

They seem to prefer dividend payouts rather than capex on new fabs[1]. Combined with them moving to FCF loss - I think that what you described here may be imaginary at best.

Given what they said in the last earnings call, a slow IBM-like death seems more likely.

1: https://semianalysis.com/intel-cuts-fab-buildout-by-4b-to-pa...

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#187

Post by adam_arthur »

unethical_ban wrote: post #181
adam_arthur wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cloud vendors have been increasingly pushing their own chips. It's hard to see AMD having any pricing power in the long run, unless their chips are significantly better than what big tech can create on their own

The Gigacorps have done this, some of them. I have more interest in the ARM argument than in the "custom chip" argument, unless Amazon and co. decide to retail their processors. Consoles, most OEMs, and all non-gigacorps will be buying off-the-shelf processors.

I'm pretty sure cloud and enterprise sales make up the bulk of their revenue and growth. Not consumer.

That being said there's likely still a few years of runway left for their growth. Even if cloud vendors don't push their own chips aggressively, they can use it as leverage to cut into AMD margins.

I don't see how ARM is an argument. AMD will easily be able to create competitive arm processors, there just wasn't a strong financial incentive to do it before

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#188

Post by oumua_don17 »

gumby wrote: post #35

This could give Intel room to maneuver. I suspect they were going to have a quarterly loss, or close to, no matter what so jammed as much future/high potential loss into that single quarter as they could as well. Now that they appear not to have a dominant position (Samsung sells more chips! AMD is worth more!) this will blunt some opposition to the juicy handouts just passed by the US Congress and may cause some opp…

>> as much future/high potential loss into that single quarter as they could as well

But Pat mentioned in the earnings call that they expect the next quarter to be even worse and are expecting (but in reality `hoping`) that they see turnaround in the final quarter. So by this account, they need more than one quarter to jam the potential losses.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#189

Post by SilverBirch »

marricks wrote: post #158
rsp1984 wrote: post #125

Call me crazy but I think long term (10 years +) the Intel strategy of fabricating chips domestically is the correct choice. There's a ton of geopolitical pressure in this direction. The US simply doesn't want to be dependent on Taiwan for chips, for obvious reasons. Intel knows this and is trying to become the TSMC of the west. And frankly they're the only ones that can pull it off. I'd be surprised if 10 years from…

You may very well be right, but it's a bit much to say that's Intel's explicit strategy. In the past 12 years the main thing Intel has done is make poor long term choices: going big on mobile too late, SSDs taking off but not for Intel, whatever is gong on with 10nm. Saying they're committed to fabricating in the US while they are, for the first time, relying on other companies to make chips for them over seas... rig…

Most of the failure you're stating there predates current leadership to be fair. It's difficult to see BK as anything other than a massive failure, betting the farm on alternative growth engines whilst failing on the core mission.

Reminds me of Facebook actually - if you tell the people who build your core product that they're lame, they're goign to leave, and your core business will fail.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#190

Post by SilverBirch »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #135
rsp1984 wrote: post #125

Call me crazy but I think long term (10 years +) the Intel strategy of fabricating chips domestically is the correct choice. There's a ton of geopolitical pressure in this direction. The US simply doesn't want to be dependent on Taiwan for chips, for obvious reasons. Intel knows this and is trying to become the TSMC of the west. And frankly they're the only ones that can pull it off. I'd be surprised if 10 years from…

Spot on. Any large country that's NOT desperately building up fab facilities within the country right now is playing with fire. This stuff is the new oil. Insane how little of our modern life works without chips.

I think this is completely wrong. Oil is compustible, at the end of the day you don't need a crazy supply chain to make use of it, just to make it. You couldd have 99% of a working supply chian for advanced eletronics, you're still fucked. It's far more fragile than oil.
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