181–190 of 774 posts
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Thanks, I wish people could speak clearly.
RIF is an industry standard term with a long history. The problem isn’t others speaking unclearly. It’s assuming others are in the wrong rather than being happy to learn something new.
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And no evidence inflation is under control + future rates increases are anticipated as well. I'd love to get a flash poll of the finance industry and see how much people believe 1-8% interest rates are possible over the next 5 years. I bet a lot in the market think 3% interest rates are just not gonna happen.
You mean rates won't get that high? Or that they will be much higher?
Some of the strongest tech companies were built during a downturn (PayPal if I remember correctly). It's a great time to build, but probably not the best time for fundraising.
It's rather that founders with a proper vision build companies regardless of market swings. During a boom cycle there's abundant founding, even for trash projects. Markets aren't as efficient as many assume, especially not in the short term. Now we're at the end of a boom cycle and everything gets battered but that's just the valuation changing, nothing else. It's speculation. In the public eye quality projects will…
Software is pliable. You will have a network of middlemen running at cost.
A lot of these companies have very reasonable P/E ratios now. Microsoft is sitting at around 27, Apple 25, and Facebook 15. None of those strike me as "inflated". Those are normal values for the stock market (20-25). Are investors just panicking?
Out of those I think Microsoft is the only one that isn’t sort of inflated. If Facebook disappears the world will hardly notice. If Apple does it’ll be hard to find a good laptop that can keep battery for 9 million years and it’ll be hard to find a “tech works out of the box so well that if you buy your grandmother/mother an iPad you’ll never need to do tech support again”, but still, it’s just a luxury brand. If Mic…
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In what market? In the SF bay area 99% of houses appraise, even if they go 50% or $0.5m over asking
Boring Midwestern City that's not even a 3rd-tier tech hub. Other boring Southern city that's also not even a 3rd-tier tech hub. Buyers are having to take on the risk of having to cover any extra over appraisal in cash, consistently, while that used to be rare (and, yes, usually for "I am super invested, emotionally, in getting this particular house" reasons). My unremarkable suburban house in a boring city that's be…
Let the cash buyers suffer the losses. You'll thank yourself later.
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Across every investment class there has been a trend of buyers needing to become more financially irresponsible in order to participate in the market. Need to buy a house? bid 20% more than asking, if you don't - someone else will.. in cash. Need to build a ride-hailing app? prepare to pay people to ride indefinitely. Need to own a growth stock? prepare to pay upwards of 100x multiple on revenue. All around, there ha…
This is also a central banking fail in so far that there's that much liquidity in the market that can't find a productive outlet. There's a lot of money, but also not enough concentrated in one spot to do really useful ventures like large infrastructure projects. So instead the money is distorting everything. Imagine if lending was less cheap for home owners but it was still cheap for governments or really large comp…
How many dead unicorns can the industry withstand?
If everyone's a unicorn, no one is.
A lot of these companies have very reasonable P/E ratios now. Microsoft is sitting at around 27, Apple 25, and Facebook 15. None of those strike me as "inflated". Those are normal values for the stock market (20-25). Are investors just panicking?
The implication is that if you bought them outright, they are going to generate the present level of profits for 25 years before you pay off your investment.
How many tech companies have lasted 25 years? How many will last 25 more?
25 makes sense for a startup with potential for explosive growth, not for an established company.