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U.S. interest rates have soared everywhere but savings accounts

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Re: U.S. interest rates have soared everywhere but savings accounts

#181
post #40

Serious question: inflation seems to only be getting higher (is it 8%+ now?) the Fed's increasing of the interest rate is causing a stock market crash. So if one puts their money into assets, those are decreasing in price due to the fed, and if someone is holding cash that's also going down in value due to inflation. What's the solution?

Inflation is high because of supply shortages and lower production, increasing rates would mean increasing the cost of setting up new supplies or production lines.

Manipulating interest rates works when under otherwise normal condition the government wants to prevent overheating economy or to provide stimulus during a down cycle.

It is not immediately clear if the rate increases is going to help increase production or stabilise supply chains, perhaps just the contrary.

Re: U.S. interest rates have soared everywhere but savings accounts

#182
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Americas anual GDP was $21t in 2020. Federal COVID relief funds were 4.6t over the span of 2 years according to https://www.usaspending.gov/disaster/covid-19?publicLaw=all That's just over 10% of the GDP. Not a small amount by any measure but our numbers are rather different. What am I missing?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL

The US Fed changed how M1 was defined in May 2020 - that's why the number jumped/changed (it spells it out right on that page

Re: U.S. interest rates have soared everywhere but savings accounts

#183
post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The yield on the 1 year t-bill has gone from 0% to 2% That’s where I’ll be keeping cash I’d otherwise keep at the bank, for now.

except rates are gonna keep going up, meaning your principle would decline in value.

If you're keeping it to term, the only issue is the 1 year of opportunity cost - you get your full principal back at the end. But if your alternative was to keep it in a savings account at a bank, there's no opportunity cost.

Re: U.S. interest rates have soared everywhere but savings accounts

#184
post #116
post #40

Serious question: inflation seems to only be getting higher (is it 8%+ now?) the Fed's increasing of the interest rate is causing a stock market crash. So if one puts their money into assets, those are decreasing in price due to the fed, and if someone is holding cash that's also going down in value due to inflation. What's the solution?

Consider buying stock in companies that produce real products that everyone needs. Food, cleaning supplies, toilet paper, hygiene, etc. It's hard to go wrong doing that.

These are called consumer staples.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerstaples.asp

Re: U.S. interest rates have soared everywhere but savings accounts

#185
post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The yield on the 1 year t-bill has gone from 0% to 2% That’s where I’ll be keeping cash I’d otherwise keep at the bank, for now.

Grabbing some I Bonds could be worth it.

I'm already maxed out at $10,000 for this year.

Re: U.S. interest rates have soared everywhere but savings accounts

#186
post #179

Real interest rates are still negative, with inflation being at 9%. So even if the yield is 3%, on the 5 year treasury, the real yield is -6%. What fool would lend someone 100 dollars to get back 94 dollars in 5 years? The biggest sucker is the person who owns a 30 year treasury, and if the Fed starts selling its treasuries, good luck getting a reasonable price for it.

Someone betting that we'll hit a deflationary recession/crash where inflation will plummet along with interest rates, making their locked in interest rate advantageous?

No post body was provided.

Re: U.S. interest rates have soared everywhere but savings accounts

#187

Real interest rates are still negative, with inflation being at 9%. So even if the yield is 3%, on the 5 year treasury, the real yield is -6%. What fool would lend someone 100 dollars to get back 94 dollars in 5 years? The biggest sucker is the person who owns a 30 year treasury, and if the Fed starts selling its treasuries, good luck getting a reasonable price for it.

No post body was provided.

Re: U.S. interest rates have soared everywhere but savings accounts

#188
post #40

Serious question: inflation seems to only be getting higher (is it 8%+ now?) the Fed's increasing of the interest rate is causing a stock market crash. So if one puts their money into assets, those are decreasing in price due to the fed, and if someone is holding cash that's also going down in value due to inflation. What's the solution?

Based on the market a lot of people believe “buy some real estate” is the solution. But that bubble IMHO is about to pop. Maybe look into interest protected bonds? https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/products/prod_ibonds_gl... Personally I have been just spending what I make assuming saving is moot right now (besides 401k and espp)

I-Bonds are getting a lot of attention lately, and with good reason. Still underexplored, and there's a cap on them ($10k/person with limited workarounds), but well worth checking out for everyone reading this.

Re: U.S. interest rates have soared everywhere but savings accounts

#189

Real interest rates are still negative, with inflation being at 9%. So even if the yield is 3%, on the 5 year treasury, the real yield is -6%. What fool would lend someone 100 dollars to get back 94 dollars in 5 years? The biggest sucker is the person who owns a 30 year treasury, and if the Fed starts selling its treasuries, good luck getting a reasonable price for it.

The obvious problem is that there is nowhere to hide.

All markets are overvalued by virtually any historical metric. At least if you take the -6% real hit, at least you can know and predict what the hit is.

Re: U.S. interest rates have soared everywhere but savings accounts

#190
post #89

I always wondered why there was seemingly no (marketed) business in foreign savings accounts. If I'm willing to ride the exchange rate risks, surely there's some bank in Honduras paying a higher rate on Lempira-denominated accounts. Compared to half the derivative products on the market, it's a straightforward offering, and it also feels an ideal product for flim-flam direct-to-consumer marketing-- backed by "governm…

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