Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst • Hacker News Board

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#181

Post by the_af » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 1:37 PM UTC

grugq wrote: post #170

secondaryacct wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I found it interesting for the purely operational aspect: management ask for analysis without context, doesnt like answer so force better number, bubbles up for months to the top, war is declared on the basis of analysis, all is fucked because analysis was devoid of meaning. Now, need to fix the shit and Z stands for Nazi, Zelensky is war hero, Chechens dont understand why they were erased even before killing one civ…

Creating a long fake is riskier than a short fake. Making mistakes is a risk, and so the more content the more risk. As for the “reality” of working as an analyst in FSB it seems pretty accurate. Even if not true, it carries a certain truth. The general analysis is consistent with what most people I’ve spoken with think. Russia is in a bad spot. They need to turn the narrative on Ukraine (one idea we thought of was a…

> Creating a long fake is riskier than a short fake. Making mistakes is a risk, and so the more content the more risk.

But this isn't really a long piece. It's very short in actual content, only padded with prose.

And what exactly is the risk anyway? That someone will identify it as Ukrainian disinformation? That's very low stakes, which we know because it has already happened with other bits of "info".

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#182

Post by tylergetsay » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 1:37 PM UTC

the_af wrote: post #142

gorgoiler wrote: post #32

Verified by two anonymous sources, according to a “Bellingcat exec director”, who in turn has been verified by Twitter (which amounts to what, I do not know — verified their name? Their job? That they are competent at their job?) A little tenuous, but maybe this Bellingcat employee is super famous and renowned? It would be interesting if people here can come up with a better chain of verification. Until then, it’s ce…

It's interesting that otherwise smart people here believe that it must be true because two anonymous and unverified sources also say it's true. And this is purportedly intelligence information coming from the FSB! I mean, military intelligence, what could go wrong with trusting sensitive intelligence of an ongoing war that someone posted on Twitter or Facebook?

Has bellingcat made any big mistakes? They're kind of a big name in OSI

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#183

Post by paganel » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 1:38 PM UTC

cuteboy19 wrote: post #153

varispeed wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read about it like two weeks ago. They are desperate to find a justification for their war crimes. Given that Putin himself has been caught saying multiple lies, there is no point giving any credibility to them. Their "special operation" is not going to plan and they will be trying to use any trick to find some support for their atrocities.

It is perhaps history's most justified war. (In that it has so many contradictory justifications) 1. Ukraine is run by the first Jewish Nazi president. So obviously they needed to be denazified 2. Russia does not want a NATO country on it's borders. That is why it invaded a country with four NATO borders 3. Ukraine has WMDs! 4. Ukraine is actually just a part of Russia, and the Soviet Union just messed up and drew a…

> Russia does not want a NATO country on it's borders. That is why it invaded a country with four NATO borders

Not commenting on the other points but I think the general idea was to create a border state between Russia proper and said NATO countries, maybe out of the whole Ukraine with a Russian puppet as president, or out of several Ukrainian statelets. If it matters I do live in one of those NATO countries bordering Ukraine.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#184

Post by grishka » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 1:40 PM UTC

mongol wrote: post #21

It is unfortunte that discussion about the Ukraine war is so absent from HN. I understand that it is a complex topic that may drown HN's real purpose, but the HN readership use to have really insightful takes on most topics.

For me, it's hard to realize that while my world is on literal fire with everyone panicking, some other people in other places are living as usual.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#185

Post by paganel » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 1:41 PM UTC

gorgoiler wrote: post #32

Verified by two anonymous sources, according to a “Bellingcat exec director”, who in turn has been verified by Twitter (which amounts to what, I do not know — verified their name? Their job? That they are competent at their job?) A little tenuous, but maybe this Bellingcat employee is super famous and renowned? It would be interesting if people here can come up with a better chain of verification. Until then, it’s ce…

> Bellingcat exec director

If it's true then that should give it more credibility, as most probably Bellingcat is a CIA-cover organisation itself, so I suppose they do know their direct field adversaries.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#186

Post by 01100011 » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 1:42 PM UTC

mongol wrote: post #21

It is unfortunte that discussion about the Ukraine war is so absent from HN. I understand that it is a complex topic that may drown HN's real purpose, but the HN readership use to have really insightful takes on most topics.

I think SWEs are some of the worst when it comes to projecting one's domain knowledge into other areas.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#187

Post by paganel » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 1:45 PM UTC

the_af wrote: post #155

praptak wrote: post #105

Side note: if they really thought of sending "politically undesirables" to the front, they must be desperate. And in Russia, of all places! Don't they know what happened when frustrated soldiers came back from the front?

Well, some [1] news are reporting Ukraine is either sending or considering releasing people from prison to fight the Russians. [1] non Russian news outlets, if you google you'll get many hits

It was on the news 4-5 days ago, didn't hear anything new about that, maybe they reconsidered? Not sure.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#188

Post by daqhris » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 1:46 PM UTC

KaiserPro wrote: post #131

onemanstartup wrote: post #49

3 days to Blitzkrieg? - Fake.

Thats how blitzkriegs work The first 3 days are critical. You need to smash a hole deep in the defence. Then gather logistics to carry on. however you are horrifically exposed until you shore up your flanks. if you don't break the spirit of the defenders then you're in deep shit. for what its worth, the german invasion of france almost failed, because the entire column got bunched up in the Ardennes. Had the french a…

That is how they work..."in theory". Reality can be swiftly influenced by a single actor, acting at their own whims, then end up changing the pace of the confrontation.

Blitz or not, the destruction of wealth occuring in Ukraine will make it easily enter the club of thrird-world countries whose existence is sustained by international donations. The harsh sanctions on the invaders will make more cumbersome the task of trying to extract value from the conquered land. This will not impact negatively on UKR rebirth. RU may win the battle, but the longer the resistance lasts, they'll have on their hands a worthless asset, internal powerfights and regional humanitarian crises.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#189

Post by praptak » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 1:46 PM UTC

the_af wrote: post #155

praptak wrote: post #105

Side note: if they really thought of sending "politically undesirables" to the front, they must be desperate. And in Russia, of all places! Don't they know what happened when frustrated soldiers came back from the front?

Well, some [1] news are reporting Ukraine is either sending or considering releasing people from prison to fight the Russians. [1] non Russian news outlets, if you google you'll get many hits

The context matters. Do they send prisoners against their will, or offer a deal?

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#190

Post by perlgeek » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 1:50 PM UTC

sss111 wrote: post #2

It could just be my ignorance, but is world hunger really as inevitable as they say. Couldn't other countries step up production or tap into their grain reserves? >World hunger is unavoidable... I can't tell you what the higher ups were thinking when they decided to go through with this operation

> Couldn't other countries step up production or tap into their grain reserves?

Stepping up production isn't easy, since most arable land is being used for food production already. You'd have to increase farming efficiency. (Which is possible, but not easy; nobody wants to do inefficient farming, so if, as a farmer, you haven't raised efficiency, it's likely that you don't know how, or simply cannot, due to other constraints, such as availability of machines and fertilizer).