South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew • Hacker News Board

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#181

Post by slowhand09 » Wed, Dec 22, 2021, 9:01 PM UTC

endisneigh wrote: post #31

nostromo wrote: post #13

The panic surrounding Omicron is absurd. Take a look at these two charts. Omicron cases spiked in SA. Deaths didn't budge. At all. https://i.imgur.com/TgRmz4F.png [1] Omicron is a good thing, if your baseline is Delta. But I'm still waiting for the US media stop hyperventilating about it. 1. https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-m...

I concur. It’s amazing how well anti vaxxers have taken over the narrative. Literally all data has shown that omicron is a non-issue for triple vaxxed individuals, with a baseline being the standard flu. If someone has data showing that triple vaxxed people are dying at rates similar to March 2020 I’d love to see.

Seriously?

If someone vaxxed and boosted dies of COVID, the media spins it as "Look how deadly..."

If someone is on Ivermectine and dies of COVID, they're villified as spreaders.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#182

Post by katmannthree » Wed, Dec 22, 2021, 9:01 PM UTC

toolz wrote: post #125

nostromo wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm glad it's more contagious than Delta, because Delta is much worse than Omicron. Sure, I'd rather we didn't have Covid at all, but that's not been a realistic option for quite some time now.

I can't wait until public opinion seems to catch on to the fact that we will never eliminate covid. It blows my mind that we see 100% vaccinated universities going back to online-only learning. What exactly are they waiting on?

There are many places where that's a perfectly rational decision.

COVID was never going to be completely managed by states less than willing to take draconian measures, the purpose soft-lockdowns was instead to lighten the load on our healthcare system so that we didn't need to invest in field hospitals and a bunch of field-trained doctors and nurses. If we had done that instead not only would the optics be worse (not just many more people dying, think front page photos of them dying in muddy tents), it would also dilute the market capture of the existing entrenched healthcare system.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#183

Post by endisneigh » Wed, Dec 22, 2021, 9:02 PM UTC

jedberg wrote: post #174

endisneigh wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, because there are still restrictions as a result of them, even though most people in the USA have been vaccinated. In other words policies that affect the super majority are being formed due to the actions of a small group.

Only 20% of Americans are triple vaxxed.

Yeah, about 60% double and 70% single. Anyone can get more vaccines for free.

Not sure why people support restrictions at this point. If someone doesn’t want to be vaccinated that’s fair enough, but let the rest of us be free.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#184

Post by zerocount » Wed, Dec 22, 2021, 9:02 PM UTC

starik36 wrote: post #176

cdrini wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That chart is misleading; the rise/spike in deaths is always delayed from the rise/spike in cases. It does seem like Omicron is less deadly than Delta. The big concern is that because it's so significantly more contagious, that even though a smaller percentage of infected people will require ventilators, the absolute number will be high enough to overwhelm hospitals. Sources: Dr. John Campbell, Dr. Larry Brilliant (W…

Didn't the doctor who discovered and documented Omicron state that it results in mild disease? Therefore, it won't require ventilators and thus won't overwhelm hospitals?

Yes, but nobody in a position to affect a country with Covid lockdowns and laws believed her. It seems like money and politics are running the show.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#185

Post by systemvoltage » Wed, Dec 22, 2021, 9:02 PM UTC

cdrini wrote: post #64

nostromo wrote: post #13

The panic surrounding Omicron is absurd. Take a look at these two charts. Omicron cases spiked in SA. Deaths didn't budge. At all. https://i.imgur.com/TgRmz4F.png [1] Omicron is a good thing, if your baseline is Delta. But I'm still waiting for the US media stop hyperventilating about it. 1. https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-m...

That chart is misleading; the rise/spike in deaths is always delayed from the rise/spike in cases. It does seem like Omicron is less deadly than Delta. The big concern is that because it's so significantly more contagious, that even though a smaller percentage of infected people will require ventilators, the absolute number will be high enough to overwhelm hospitals. Sources: Dr. John Campbell, Dr. Larry Brilliant (W…

False. Even accounting for the delay it's not as dangerous, check and numerous news channels today: https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/south-africa

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#186

Post by joshuahedlund » Wed, Dec 22, 2021, 9:03 PM UTC

gammarator wrote: post #169

joshuahedlund wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> because it's so significantly more contagious, that even though a smaller percentage of infected people will require ventilators, the absolute number will be high enough to overwhelm hospitals. This is a legitimate theoretical concern, however empirically it looks like South Africa's hospitalizations are peaking at slightly more than half their previous wave, with deaths on pace to peak even lower[1][2] [1] https:/…

SA severity may not be representative because of greater prior immunity and a younger age skew.

Exhibit B will be the UK. Their cases started spiking about two weeks ago. So far their hospitalizations haven't budged and are even a bit lower than they were a month ago, less than a quarter of their pandemic peak[1]

[1]https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#187

Post by SideburnsOfDoom » Wed, Dec 22, 2021, 9:04 PM UTC

toolz wrote: post #105

volkse wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has been discussed many times before - the issue with the SA data is that 80% of the population have been exposed to the virus (either had it or have been vaccinated) so the deaths not budging there can be very misleading for countries with lower vaccination rates.

South Africa is well under average vaccination rate globally. Also what do you mean by they've been exposed to the virus? Of course they've been exposed to the virus, that's exactly why it's interesting to see how their deaths follow cases. There's no indication that the first world, with much higher vaccination rates won't fare better than South Africa, which seems to be faring exceptionally well relative to other c…

> Also what do you mean by they've been exposed to the virus?

"have been exposed to the virus" usually means something like "immune system isn't totally unprepared, but has had contact with this virus before (or a proxy via vaccination)".

In South Africa, it is mostly via getting COVID-19 in the Alpha or Delta waves.

Yes, over 70% of South Africans have had it:

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bloomberg/news/2021-12-14-ove...

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#188

Post by awb » Wed, Dec 22, 2021, 9:04 PM UTC

smm11 wrote: post #158

In other news, heart disease is still the number one killer in the US.

You could go down the rabbit hole and say that misinformation, poor decision making, logical fallacies, mental health issues, etc. are the actual catalysts.

My point is that COVID and heart disease are largely preventable at an individual level if you have ability to eat healthy foods and take the vaccine and/or practice social distancing.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#189

Post by davidw » Wed, Dec 22, 2021, 9:05 PM UTC

toolz wrote: post #125

nostromo wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm glad it's more contagious than Delta, because Delta is much worse than Omicron. Sure, I'd rather we didn't have Covid at all, but that's not been a realistic option for quite some time now.

I can't wait until public opinion seems to catch on to the fact that we will never eliminate covid. It blows my mind that we see 100% vaccinated universities going back to online-only learning. What exactly are they waiting on?

> What exactly are they waiting on?

The thing that needs to not happen is filling up hospitals. People died where I live because they could not get access to 'elective' surgery due to the medical system being slammed during the most recent Delta wave.

Once that's not a factor, things will start getting more normal.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#190

Post by andybak » Wed, Dec 22, 2021, 9:06 PM UTC

starik36 wrote: post #176

cdrini wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That chart is misleading; the rise/spike in deaths is always delayed from the rise/spike in cases. It does seem like Omicron is less deadly than Delta. The big concern is that because it's so significantly more contagious, that even though a smaller percentage of infected people will require ventilators, the absolute number will be high enough to overwhelm hospitals. Sources: Dr. John Campbell, Dr. Larry Brilliant (W…

Didn't the doctor who discovered and documented Omicron state that it results in mild disease? Therefore, it won't require ventilators and thus won't overwhelm hospitals?

You seem to be talking in absolutes rather than probabilities.