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Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

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Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#181

Post by speedgoose »

trixie_ wrote: post #178
speedgoose wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you mean? For international transfers, I just write the account number and it's done for a small fee. It's also reversible. For national payments I can use the account number, the phone number, or simply the name of the person using an app (vipps). Everyone has it,also elderly people, and it's actually instant and verified transactions for real.

That’s great for you. Where I am I’m waiting for days for money to get into my account and days for money to leave my account. I’m also limited to how much I can send at once. What I’m saying is that crypto has this problem solved right now for the entire world.

Perhaps the entire world, but far from the entire population.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#182

Post by Jensson »

wickoff wrote: post #83
stickyricky wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How? You can't see if I own any NFTs right now. You can't see it in gmail. You can't see it on facebook. You don't get ads saying "rich NFT holders in your area!". No one knows or cares if you own an NFT.

Twitter is adding ownership verification for NFT profile pictures.

> Twitter is adding ownership verification for NFT profile pictures.

Twitter seems to have too many engineers.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#183

Post by Jensson »

koonsolo wrote: post #160
nuerow wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Those of us who have been here for a long time heard this story plenty of times before. Getting into a pyramid scheme early does not grant anyone any special insight onto how it is not a pyramid scheme. All they get is the benefits from getting in early, confirmation bias, and an irrational belief that not only past performance guarantees future results but also there is absolutely no growth ceiling.

I would love to be in a pyramid scheme where people keep sending me money. But that is not the case with crypto is it. Maybe take a look what pyramid schemes really look like. Here is the wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyramid_scheme

You are just looking at one specific type of pyramid scheme. See for example:

> Matrix schemes use the same fraudulent, unsustainable system as a pyramid; here, the participants pay to join a waiting list for a desirable product, which only a fraction of them can ever receive.

You pay dollars expecting to get a lot of dollars in the future. This is why most pay for bitcoin, and since it is impossible for everyone to make money it is a pyramid scheme. The future payoff can only happen if a lot of other people pay more dollars, which will be used to pay you. And since the system constantly extracts money to pay for all the hashing it is impossible for everyone to even break even, people will lose a ton of money in the end.

This is different from normal currency trading. When you buy dollars you are betting on the US government and the US market to be strong so the dollar gains value. Bitcoin however doesn't have any backing like that, it is a negative sum game.

Edit: The core concept of pyramid schemes is this, basically it is a business model which requires infinite new entrants to be sustainable. Bitcoin is like that, it only works as long as bitcoin enthusiasts continue to recruit new people to invest in bitcoin. Hence bitcoin is a pyramid scheme, even if there isn't any tax on sub transactions.

> Pyramid schemes are based on network marketing, where each person in the pyramid is tasked with bringing in their own subordinates and in turn profiting from their sales or recruitments. This fails because it essentially requires an infinite number of people to join the company.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#184

Post by Jensson »

trixie_ wrote: post #175
onion2k wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those "pain in the ass" parts are there for reasons like consumer protection and anti-money laundering. If you don't like them that's OK, but suggesting no one should have them seems a little presumptuous.

No it’s a pain in the ass because the technology is antiquated.

No, it is exactly as that guy said. Those transactions are illegal, you can't transfer money across borders without notifying authorities in most countries, and I am pretty sure you aren't notifying them when you do. If bitcoin ever becomes popular as a currency rather than just investment scheme then governments will come down hard on this and all transactions will get banned or made as inconvenient as bank transfers.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#185

Post by koonsolo »

jqpabc123 wrote: post #180
koonsolo wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm involved in crypto and I really don't care about Tether. Currently, people are coming in with their own USD and willing to buy Bitcoin at a price of 60K. That has nothing to do with Tether. It has everything to do with people willing to pay that price. I don't own Tether, so I really don't care.

That has nothing to do with Tether. It has everything to do with people willing to pay that price. It has everything to do with Tether. Tether is being minted with an illusionary value of $1USD and "loaned" to favored insiders which use it to buy Bitcoin and inflate the price. The fact that Bitcoin trades for $60k is the result of this being done in the past. The reason new investors pay $60k is their expectation it…

Ok, so please enlighten me.

> More than half of all Bitcoin trades involve Tether

So how much of this Tether is fake money?

When I buy crypto, I do that with fiat coming from a fractional reserve bank. So basically 1% is money the bank has now, and 99% is lended and "should be available at some point".

This all seems like a system that just begs for a cryptocurrency solution :p. Tether is part of the fiat system, not cryptocurrency. I would love to see someone making Bitcoins or Ethereum out of thin air. Because if Tether is creating dollars out of thin air as you say, that's a serious flaw in the fiat system.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#186

Post by atatatat »

riffraff wrote: post #80
paxys wrote: post #51

Michael Burry was also famously (and vocally) short TSLA for many years until he finally folded and closed his positions recently. I'm not crazy bullish on crypto myself, but it is pointless to hold the opinion of a few analysts/fund managers above the rest just because they made some good bets in the past. The one thing that the market has shown is that no one knows which way any security will go tomorrow – not Buff…

Michael Burry predicted 12 of the last 2 financial crisis.

Don't mock Burry for being naïve in still thinking there's legitimacy or justice in society.

Just feel bad...for us.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#187

Post by atatatat »

graeme wrote: post #149
yao420 wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can see what people own by their wallet address. The watch example is apt, similar to a Richard Mille being a flex that 99% of people won’t ever notice or understand it conveys status.

People are going to flash their wallet addresses at bars or at business meetings? We already have strong social taboos about flashing bank accounts. The whole point of status good is they convey wealth rather than tactlessly showing a total.

You've never seen where these brags occur?

See if this feels familiar:

Paris Hilton buys NFT of Hello Kitty! creator's DNA, says "crypto is the future"

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#188

Post by atatatat »

trophycase wrote: post #129
xenihn wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The exact same thing happened with Ethereum (and crypto in general) in 2017. But look how much it's rebounded after that crash. I still don't think it's a good long term investment, but it's been an amazing way for some people to make life-changing money. Sadly, I'm not one of them.

It's a good investment dude. I'm not trying to shill or anything here but Ethereum is literally the "internet" of finance. It democratizes and brings access to basic financial building blocks like we've never before seen in history and truly anything can be built on it. Unironically it's the future of finance. Don't listen to the Luddites and cynics here. Do the research yourself and try it out for yourself and it be…

Ethereum?

Or Ethereum2?

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#189

Post by koonsolo »

Jensson wrote: post #183
koonsolo wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would love to be in a pyramid scheme where people keep sending me money. But that is not the case with crypto is it. Maybe take a look what pyramid schemes really look like. Here is the wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyramid_scheme

You are just looking at one specific type of pyramid scheme. See for example: > Matrix schemes use the same fraudulent, unsustainable system as a pyramid; here, the participants pay to join a waiting list for a desirable product, which only a fraction of them can ever receive. You pay dollars expecting to get a lot of dollars in the future. This is why most pay for bitcoin, and since it is impossible for everyone to…

First of all, I didn't have to go into a waiting list to buy crypto.

Second of all, I didn't buy crypto because it will give me an infinite supply of money given to me by subordinates.

I buy crypto when I think it's undervalued. I sell when I think it's overvalued. Doesn't everyone????

I'm also not recruiting any subordinates. So sorry, but your pyramid scheme theory falls short.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#190

Post by dnautics »

imtringued wrote: post #146
dnautics wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Should disclose my broader views: I would not be surprised if we saw BTC 100k, soon. I am more optimistic now than I ever was that there is an endgame where BTC (or something) is some sort of international reserve currency, but I still think the likelihood is low. I am hoping for an economic system that stops stealing from the poor to give to the rich (I think taxation is about as effective way to redistribute wealth…

Bitcoin just creates a new class of rich people. It's still the using same mechanisms but it is happening faster. Asset has no holding fee and gets more expensive? People speculate with it at the expense of those who will have to acquire it later (the poor).

I'm not arguing to abolish rich people, I'm just saying we should stop stealing from the poor.
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