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Busting the 10x software engineer myth

swarmia.com

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Re: Busting the 10x software engineer myth

#183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, this is an important point when thinking about it from an organization perspective. I've been at places where they "only wanted to hire rockstars" which was beyond stupid. By definition 10x developers are rare and are going to have a lot of options when it comes to where they work. So if you depend on some member of the team carrying a hugely disproportionate amount of the work, then you are in for a rude awake…

The problem I have is they always want me to train someone as insurance for if I leave. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy when you make me work and train mediocre people. I just want to build great things and be left alone.

This blog post has some really interesting thoughts on that point: https://applieddivinitystudies.com/2020/10/15/bus-factor/

Re: Busting the 10x software engineer myth

#184
post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can a 10x marathon runner finish 26 miles in less than 1 hour? That’s the wrong analogy because marathon runners are already the 10x-ers of movement. The average person could cover the distance of a marathon, but it would take them many days of walking and resting. A marathon runner can finish a marathon in around 5 hours. That’s an order of magnitude faster than an average person, so yes, they are 10X-ers. Most pe…

I think your comment inadvertently illustrates how much of this comes down to how you define the baseline. I think the comparison for a world-leading marathon runner shouldn't be someone who _never_ exercises but someone who's actually put some effort into fitness (say, an amateur runner) — yes, they're faster but it's nowhere near 10x[1] — just as our baseline for a 10x developer shouldn't be someone who's never wri…

I think it is probably much, much less harder (as a young, healthy person) to get from relatively unfit to running a marathon in 4:20 compared to getting from that 4:20 to the 2:10 that the elite marathon runners do. It's probably a lot more than 10x harder to go from 4h to 2h, I think. I gained a lot of respect for them when I realized that my gym treadmills' maximum speed (20Kph, which I have never managed to hit for any significant length of time) is less than the average speed to hit the current world record times.

Re: Busting the 10x software engineer myth

#185
post #97

This article is pure clickbait written to sell in this stupid Swarmia startup. :) 10x developers exist just like 10x musicians, 10x marathon runners, or 10x chess players exist. It may take a world-class musician a week to write a masterful symphony but it would take me way longer. Perhaps I'd never produce anything great so that musician would be infinitely better at it than me. Great chess players beat amateurs at…

10x is real but I think the more compelling question is how low a bar of competency is allowed to work in the profession - and what is the average level of competency in the programmer market.

"Certifications" doesn't get there - too easy to just game a multiple choice test. I would like to see a formal education + testing requirement (ala Doctors, just not 10 years!) Essentially, a barrier of entry for serious programmers. That would ultimately come with a high minimum salary without having to get hired at faang.

College accreditation doesn't cut it either. I work w programmers with an MS in CS. Programmers are kinda impressed. Managers could care less.

The insanely high demand for labor and (always present) priority to reduce labor costs however encourages the entry of boot-camp you're hired on the low end of experience/competence.

Re: Busting the 10x software engineer myth

#186
post #3

I know "10x engineers" exist; some people are fakes and put forward things that look like they have high impact but are actually a bit shoddy. Some people like to be present and suck up. But some people really do just work hard, smart and have deep passion for what they're doing- and importantly: pride, which makes the quality of the content great too. Some of the best engineers I know "visit" bits of code or infrast…

Author here. There definitely are people, who perform better than others, even when the environment is not built to favor them and hinder others from performing well.

If we believe that the talent within a field follows the power law, as suggested by this study (http://www.hermanaguinis.com/PPsych2012.pdf) it means that only 20% people in the field are high-perfomers, and something like less than 5% exceptionally high performers. When you look it from the perspective of scaling an organization it means that getting these people to your company will be very hard. 80% of companies are hiring within the "average or below average" section. The truly high-performing people, who are passionate about their craft are very likely to move to companies that are at the at the top of XYZ, where XYZ is the topic within software engineering that they're especially passionate about, pay well, etc.

There was originally a section the article that tried to highlight "statistics", but I eventually left it out, because I did not find a good place for it:

"Statistically speaking, it is much easier to create a "10x engineer" by creating an organization, where most people perform poorly than actually hire and retain someone, who really is 10x better at software engineering than an average person."

In hindsight, I think there are a few things that could have been emphasized more, so the thrust of the blog post would have been clearer:

- The title could have been better frased around the topic.

- The context is companies that are growing fast and need to scale.

- You likely have a company full of close-to-average people.

Re: Busting the 10x software engineer myth

#187
post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess this all depends on your definition of 10x. It sounds like you are saying 10x the average person rather than 10x the average person who works in that field. I'm a 10x developer if we count non developers. I am not if we could people who work as developers. Likewise there are expert marathon runners who are 10X, or more, than the average human. But there are not marathon runners who run 10x faster than other p…

> But there are not marathon runners who run 10x faster than other professional marathon runners. It’s true that they don’t run 10 times as fast, but the marathon runner that is 1% faster will finish 10x more races before the slower one (YMMV depending on stdev). Similar in software development, picking a 1% better local solution often enough can make the global result 10x better due to the complexity of the systems.

This example holds true imo. There is a world of difference between a 2:10 marathoner and a 2:30 marathoner. Same as a 4 min miler and a 4:30 miler, etc.

Because of diminishing returns, improvement can still be seen as potentially some kind of multiple in many skillsets.

Re: Busting the 10x software engineer myth

#188
post #97

This article is pure clickbait written to sell in this stupid Swarmia startup. :) 10x developers exist just like 10x musicians, 10x marathon runners, or 10x chess players exist. It may take a world-class musician a week to write a masterful symphony but it would take me way longer. Perhaps I'd never produce anything great so that musician would be infinitely better at it than me. Great chess players beat amateurs at…

You missed the point that loudmouth braggarts thrive while 10x programmers are toiling in obscurity

Re: Busting the 10x software engineer myth

#189
post #3

I know "10x engineers" exist; some people are fakes and put forward things that look like they have high impact but are actually a bit shoddy. Some people like to be present and suck up. But some people really do just work hard, smart and have deep passion for what they're doing- and importantly: pride, which makes the quality of the content great too. Some of the best engineers I know "visit" bits of code or infrast…

My employer considers me a 10x developer. It's not a title I'd choose for myself. I'm the only software engineer to be on a bonus scheme, which is great. But it means I'm expected to be available constantly. I'm not a one-man team but I tend to be the first point of contact for people outside our Eng team. It gets a bit much sometimes.

Make sure your enployer isn’t just stroking your ego to make you work long hours and take on more responsibility. Make sure you get the compensation you think you deserve not future promises..

Re: Busting the 10x software engineer myth

#190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can a 10x marathon runner finish 26 miles in less than 1 hour? How about 10 minutes? There _are_ gaps between skill levels, but from personal experience, no one is substantially worse or better. We are after all just flesh and bone...

> Can a 10x marathon runner finish 26 miles in less than 1 hour? That’s the wrong analogy because marathon runners are already the 10x-ers of movement. The average person could cover the distance of a marathon, but it would take them many days of walking and resting. A marathon runner can finish a marathon in around 5 hours. That’s an order of magnitude faster than an average person, so yes, they are 10X-ers. Most pe…

There’s a much bigger difference in ability going from a 2:30 marathon to a 2:00 marathon than going from a 3:00 to a 2:30 marathon. It’s not linear. But it’s also not relevant to the point the OP is making.
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