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Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

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Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#181

Post by quickthrower2 »

mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

Get someone you know to call the builder for a quote. Maybe they know you really want it so jacked up the price.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#182

Post by the-dude »

sgt101 wrote: post #171
sneak wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I imagine the better way is to hire an experienced GC to go and check on it every day for you. It’s only “better” in terms of time (and perhaps experience), though.

I think that this is the way to go because it's really hard to catch all of the things that can go on on site if you're not a professional. I built (ok got fellas in to build) an extension many years ago and I didn't catch that the drainage was inadequate until after they had completed and left - so I had to get that done separately and it wasn't cheap. Every builder I've talked to since has given me the impression t…

> that they would have spotted this upfront

Of course they say that. What would you think if they said the opposite?

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#183

Post by skybrian »

teekert wrote: post #168
Fiahil wrote: post #166

What bothered me the most during this whole episode, is that the prices also skyrocketed, here, in Europe. We had nowhere near the same need for wood as north-american constructions.

Because the markets are connected? If you have lumber, why sell it on the cheap to Europeans when you can get more from the Americans?

Transportation costs seem high:

> It’s difficult to ship lumber overseas cost effectively: lumber is (or was) one of the least expensive materials on the planet. At $300 per 1000 board feet (the average price over the last 25 years), a 20 foot shipping container holds just $4500 worth of material. The cost of transporting a container across the ocean is $1700 dollars or more.

https://constructionphysics.substack.com/p/lumber-price-faq

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#184

Post by TeMPOraL »

donjoe wrote: post #160
throwaway984393 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm picturing a web developer in 2023 wondering why everything is slightly tilted in his DIY house even though he used the poured slab as reference

Well, u can always transform: rotate(X°) in the end ;-)

"You asked about that stick by the side of the house? Yes, it applies a style to the house, keeping it straight. No, don't pull it out! Consequences will be... cascading!"

(I'll see myself out)

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#185

Post by dougmwne »

hellbannedguy wrote: post #37
mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

My stepdad was a software engineer and built our house growing up. The house was fabulous. The construction took 15 years of hard labor as a full time second job.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#186

Post by renewiltord »

mrcode007 wrote: post #125
renewiltord wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> None of the mills started expanding or engaging in capital programs to try and take advantage of the increased prices. Oh, nice call out. I wish there was a way for me to get information on stuff like this in general. That is the proxies for the future like you say. Doesn’t have to be profitable. It could be stuff everyone trading lumber futures already knows. Just for curiosity and so I can validate my news source…

This is false, the mills were expanding and the increased throughout increased supply and prices crashed (along with construction work backing out) https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/canadian-news/canada... This was predictable and extremely profitable trade. I made a lot of money this year from this alone. The price increase was a result of a usual 90 day delivery for new contracted lumber and nobody anticipati…

Oh, very interesting. Honestly, I have no problem receiving the information after all its trade value is exhausted. Not looking to trade in this area. Is expired info available for free somewhere?

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#187

Post by quickthrower2 »

nebula8804 wrote: post #174
99_00 wrote: post #159

Lumber prices peaked the day after a story about Lumber prices made the front page of hacker news. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27788549

Your link leads to a blank page

You need to be logged in with the show dead profile option to see it.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#188

Post by Fiahil »

teekert wrote: post #168
Fiahil wrote: post #166

What bothered me the most during this whole episode, is that the prices also skyrocketed, here, in Europe. We had nowhere near the same need for wood as north-american constructions.

Because the markets are connected? If you have lumber, why sell it on the cheap to Europeans when you can get more from the Americans?

Shipping is so expensive, if you start shipping wood instead of sourcing it locally, then no wonder the price is going to go up even faster.

What should have been a good alternative here, is to prevent/taxe massively exports of wood from EU to NA. Prices would have stagnated near a peak in NA and we would have kept our wood supply at a moderated price, here.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#189

Post by jdgoesmarching »

tayo42 wrote: post #25
mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.

Asset managers, banks, property developers, and just general commercial construction are all hiring mostly the same trade professionals as residential. The former are snapping up a lot of homes.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#190

Post by mellavora »

kebman wrote: post #176
Aloha wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Notice how that building collapse in Florida is a vanishingly rare event? That's part of why. Also some rent seeking in there. We used to have weak building codes, more buildings fell down.

I get the need to safeguard condominiums and high-rises, but what is that to single or duplex home owners?

There is some really interesting history here. When we started moving into the prairies after the civil war, we also invented the modern timber-frame house which was shipped via railroads.

We soon learned that a simple timber frame with paneling on both sides meant the whole house was a collection of chimneys, which meant any fire would very quickly overwhelm the entire house.

So we came up with some building codes which said that the timber frame needed more side-trusses to act as firebreaks.

Note that this applies mostly to single and duplex home owners.

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