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The Ransomware Problem Is a Bitcoin Problem

lawfareblog.com

181–183 of 183 posts

Re: The Ransomware Problem Is a Bitcoin Problem

#181
post #178
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“But the "loses 100% of the value per century" doesn't really seem to be a hindrance to our real-world financial needs. Lenders are capable of understanding this risk and extending 30+ year mortgages and even those weird century-plus infrastructure bond products.” We are going to have to disagree on this point. To me inflation is taxation without representation. It is theft of purchasing power by Central Banks. It di…

>To me inflation is taxation without representation. It is theft of purchasing power by Central Banks. I guess, in the end, I see central banks as "indirectly representative". While they have some free hand in day-to-day policy, in the end, their leadership has to answer to elected officials. If they drive the economy into a ditch, the head of the Federal Reserve/Bank of England/ECB will get fired. So the decisions t…

“It's not hard to build a very conservative investment portfolio that beats managed competent-Western-central-bank inflation. Hell, you could just buy something like TIPS or Series I savings bonds and be done with.

From that perspective, it's less "robbing savers of purchasing power" and more about converting savers from "dragons sitting on top of a pile of gold" into actual investors participating in the real economy.”

I will concede that one could build an investment portfolio that beats typical western consumer price inflation rates but I don’t think it is right to force savers (read unsophisticated investors) to risk their life savings just to earn a positive inflation-adjusted return. To me, more choices for individuals is generally a good thing. Governments around the world are starting to consider or even implement negative interest rates. I for one believe Bitcoin should exist as a counter to such things as forced negative interest rates, which I referenced earlier as theft by central banks.

Since the 1933/34 when the US, Canada and the UK all simultaneously dropped the gold standard (and confiscated their citizens gold by force) there has been no option for a citizen to store their savings in a bank while earning a positive return net of inflation. Store your money in a bank and you are guaranteed to lose purchasing power over time. That has been true nomatter what the inflation rate is at the time. Bank yields on savings always trail inflation.

With Bitcoin individuals finally have an option that, while volatile in the short term, has a high likelihood of retaining purchasing power relative to inflation over the long-term. As such I find it difficult to understand why so many are so quick to ban such an instrument simply because it could also be used for criminal purposes.

On a side note, one of the greatest inventions of the cryptocurrency revolution is the availability of positive real yields on stablecoins. With USDC, an individual has multiple options to earn 8-13% nominal annual return on a stablecoin that is pegged to the US Dollar. For the first time since 1933, an individual has an option to store their life-savings in a stable currency which maintains it’s purchasing power over time - try that with a bank.

Re: The Ransomware Problem Is a Bitcoin Problem

#182
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not sure I understand, has BTC ever lost 99% of it’s value? If I understand correctly, the value of Bitcoin has only gone up over the past 11 years. While the purchasing power of the US dollar has fallen in real terms every single one of those years.

BTC is up 100x from a couple years ago, is that desirable for a currency?

It is desirable for a reserve asset and a store of value - which are use-cases for a currency. It is obviously not great to have a deflationary currency as the only option for spending. However, luckily we still have fiat currencies which are ideal for spending as well as Bitcoin which is the superior savings vehicle.

Bitcoin has only been around for ~11 years and by all accounts it is still in price discovery mode. Eventually it’s value will stabilize and it may serve as a better unit of account.

Until then, spend your fiat and Hodl your bitcoin.

Re: The Ransomware Problem Is a Bitcoin Problem

#183
post #167
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "how much value it loses per century" time scale is unimportant for most applications. You need a currency to be "not 1923 Germany", because it becomes impossible to plan for anything past your next meal. But the "loses 100% of the value per century" doesn't really seem to be a hindrance to our real-world financial needs. Lenders are capable of understanding this risk and extending 30+ year mortgages and even tho…

I appreciate your point of view but if we look at the origin story of Bitcoin and Satoshi’s vision of the hardest money ever created, the fact that all fiat currencies lose value over time is exactly why it was created. While bitcoin may be volatile in USD over the short term, I can tell you the exact inflation rate of Bitcoin today, tomorrow or 100 years from now. Try that with the US Dollar.

What is the inflation rate in terms of purchasing power?
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