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Early-Retirement Update

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181–190 of 443 posts

Re: Early-Retirement Update

#181

Post by pdimitar »

GordonS wrote: post #137
eagsalazar2 wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not just FIRE people, but 99% of all retirees at any age end up doing nothing of note with their time. But, and I think you aren't saying otherwise, this is also true of everyone who still has to work, while they are working. Your job is just the thing you have to do (if you are lucky you actually enjoy it). Bottom line, most people don't actually have a purpose or strong passions in their lives. Being retired young…

> Not just FIRE people, but 99% of all retirees at any age end up doing nothing of note with their time. If you spend some years just chilling and and are actually happy, then sure, why not. But there are so many retired people who do nothing, and are not happy. For example, my mother, my mother and father in law, my other father in law, my grandmother - all retired, and all do absolutely nothing but watch TV and moa…

One possible explanation:

Their dream was to sit around, do nothing, and judge other people. And they have achieved it.

Re: Early-Retirement Update

#182

Post by lupire »

guidoism wrote: post #165
pinkybanana wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In common language it doesn't. Many people who choose to work don't need the job to survive. I know ridiculously wealthy people who just keep working the usual way. No one says those people are retired. While retirement is cool, I think life goes better without thinking too much about it. Try to work at a job that doesn't suck ass, try to have hobbies and free time, focus on family etc, invest your savings, don't buy…

Yeah we really don’t have a good word for this in English. I have trouble describing what I do. Being a parent and educating your children at home is exhausting so it doesn’t fit with the common understanding of retirement.

The word is "financial independence". It's only half for "FIRE".

Re: Early-Retirement Update

#183

Post by allenu »

schnevets wrote: post #156
AlwaysRock wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know. I'd love to have a basic level of income and then be able to dither around with random jobs. I'd love to be a bartender for 6 months, work in a bookstore for 6 months, become a carpenter for a year or two. I'd probably feel differently if I actually had a trust fund since my upbringing would be different but it does feel stifling that in order to have a financially rewarding career one has to stay on a…

I frequently have similar fantasies and have to consciously remind myself that I can get the same happiness in my current role. When I think of opening a bar/restaurant, I'm actually just hoping for more quality time with friends. When I think of opening a bookstore, I'm actually just hoping for more time to focus on reading. When I think of becoming a cook, I'm actually just hoping for more passion and drive in the…

That's a good way of looking at it.

This discussion point reminds me of a Sir Ken Robinson talk (not sure which one, but he has many). After a friend's musical performance on stage, he comments to his friend that he'd love to do what he's doing, being on stage, playing guitar. His friend quickly remarks that no, he actually wouldn't. If he really wanted to be a musician, he would've done it by now. He would've put in the work and toil to get there. Instead, he just likes the idea of being able to perform at a high level in front of other people.

I think so many of our fantasies are like that. We think of the end result and want that, but don't think about all the work needed to get there and whether we're up for that.

Re: Early-Retirement Update

#184

Post by pcglue »

2.8M nut, about 50/50 in regular/retirement accounts. I'm mid 40's, married with two pre-teen kids, annual expenses of $80K, live in HCOL area (Southern California). Would you FIRE in this situation? Would you take a year long hiatus? As much as I would like to FIRE, I can't/won't, even though the "numbers" say I probably could. But seriously considering a months to year long career break/sabbatical/hiatus, because I'm extremely extremely burnt out. Has anyone here taken a gap year in their 40's/50's? Was it difficult to find another job?

Re: Early-Retirement Update

#185

Post by hogFeast »

sokoloff wrote: post #122
hogFeast wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I can see, that doesn't look too good. There are likely issues with the data, which is not easily solvable given that complete databases are expensive. And there are likely issues with the modelling, it looks like the model is just scenario analysis. This is better than a misspecified parametric model (most advisers don't do scenario analysis either, so it is definitely valuable...although requires market k…

I think there's a reasonable question of whether a Monte-Carlo simulation is better or worse than applying actual sequential returns from all 100+ starting years (which is what cFIREsim does and the data of which is available to all). For me, I'd rather backtest against all the actuals than to look to a Monte-Carlo sim with a distribution which is the same as the per-year returns, because I don't believe that sequenc…

I am not sure what you mean. Using sequential returns from every starting year in your database is, if I have understood you correctly, the same as using block bootstrap (at the limit, sequential returns from every starting year is the same as block bootstraps of lifespan length taken an infinite number of times).

You don't look at yearly returns. There are many reasons for not doing this but the basic one is volatility clustering. Yearly returns are mostly independent, but volatility is not...again, that is why you use a block bootstrap (you can vary the length of block but for this kind of analysis more than once decade makes sense).

Re: Early-Retirement Update

#186

Post by cheradenine_uk »

bulletwolf wrote: post #171

I've got 5 years of early retirement under my belt, and I feel like I've had the inverse experience of the OP. The first two years were an incredibly difficult transition period for me. Losing the status of being a higher up at a successful (small) company was extremely painful, especially because I didn't realize how much of a perk of the job it was. Like many others in this thread, I realized work provided a venue…

> but mostly just base status drive and ego.

I see this. Props for understanding yourself!

The number of status updates I see from former work colleagues who, pretty transparently, just want to Let You Know they are Still Really Important is astonishing -- especially ones close to normal retirement age. My reaction is something akin to (e.g) "what have you done wrong that you're over 60 and are still climbing the greasy pole?"

But it takes effort to check out of the game. I felt _exactly_ the same internal pressure after leaving one job to "update my status" once I started my own, next, Really Important Role - even when doing so was blatantly at odds with my values.

It takes a lot of knowing yourself and your own motivations to come to terms with this. It reminds me a great deal of Kung Fu!

‘Have you no ambition, Master Po?’ -Disciple Caine ‘Only one. Five years hence, it is my wish to make a pilgrimage to the Forbidden City. It is a place where even priests receive no special status. There in the Temple of Heaven, will be a festival The full moon of May. It will be the thirteenth day of the fifth month in the Year of the Dog.’ -Master Po ‘That is not such a great ambition.’ -Disciple Caine ‘But it is ambition, nonetheless. Who among us is without flaw?’ -Master Po

Re: Early-Retirement Update

#187

Post by ed25519FUUU »

pcglue wrote: post #184

2.8M nut, about 50/50 in regular/retirement accounts. I'm mid 40's, married with two pre-teen kids, annual expenses of $80K, live in HCOL area (Southern California). Would you FIRE in this situation? Would you take a year long hiatus? As much as I would like to FIRE, I can't/won't, even though the "numbers" say I probably could. But seriously considering a months to year long career break/sabbatical/hiatus, because I…

Another approach to FIRE that I think is actually more fulfilling is to gradually reduce working hours until "retired".

For example, explore a position that lets you work 4 days a week and take Mondays or Fridays off. Later, switch to part time or contracting 6 months on 6 months off.

I don't personally think gap years will be very fulfilling unless it's something like a whole family 1 year vacation where you all go and live someplace.

Re: Early-Retirement Update

#188

Post by ed25519FUUU »

And under-looked approach to retirement that I'm personally targeting is reducing working hours and then moving to contracting.

Late 30s/early 40s: 4 days a week with Fridays or Mondays off. Late 40s through 50s: contracting with increasing time off between contracts. E.g., 6 on 6 off, 3 on 9 off, 1 on 11 off, etc.

Re: Early-Retirement Update

#189

Post by the_gastropod »

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #68

I had to quit reading any FIRE (financial independence, early retirement) blogs because they were full of people headed down this same path: Extreme frugality, bare minimum savings, assuming their lifestyle would never change and nothing would ever go wrong. Retiring at 30 sounds great, but no one's life goes exactly to plan for next the 30-40 years until traditional retirement age. People change, expectations evolve…

> ...bare minimum savings, assuming their lifestyle would never change and nothing would ever go wrong.

Isn't the status quo of working a 9-5 and saving ~10% (aka spending 90%) of your salary exactly this? Having ~25x living expenses saved up seems like a significantly less fragile position than you're suggesting. Even this "failure" case, the author ended his 6 years of not earning a penny with more money than he started. And he was able to get a job when he decided he wanted one.

> Most of these people would be much happier if they simply invested time and energy into finding a job they enjoy

Lots of people don't enjoy things that are necessarily financially viable. Putting in a finite amount of time to free yourself to pursue interests without concern for the financials makes a lot of sense.

Re: Early-Retirement Update

#190

Post by yibg »

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #68

I had to quit reading any FIRE (financial independence, early retirement) blogs because they were full of people headed down this same path: Extreme frugality, bare minimum savings, assuming their lifestyle would never change and nothing would ever go wrong. Retiring at 30 sounds great, but no one's life goes exactly to plan for next the 30-40 years until traditional retirement age. People change, expectations evolve…

I noticed even with myself over the years I've flip flopped.

At first I thought I can do lean FIRE, because I was never a big spender in the first place. As I get older I started to gradually spend more on things and frankly enjoy the ability to do so as I earned more. For example, not having to take the crappiest flight to get some where. Recently as I get older, I question if I want to even retire early at all. Now I'm shifting more towards "I want to be financially independent so I'm not reliant on a job, but I still want to work".

So things change, and things change more and faster than we anticipate. And this isn't even accounting for externalities outside of our control.

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