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Moore's Law for Everything

moores.samaltman.com

181–190 of 554 posts

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#181
I am more and more amused by Sam's ambition of describing so-called plans for Humans, while at the same time is 1 year younger than myself, who had co-founded a failed startup loopt based on sharing location information; and joined YC because of largely Paul Graham and him being somewhat liked each other without much deep connections, and eventually become chairman of YC; then now co-founded OpenAI as the one working business side of the org.

I don't think Sam is using his time and energy wisely. But I could be wrong. Who knows.

Edit: to answer the question in the reply.

I don't know what he should be doing, exactly. But Sam probably would do more value by focusing on his work at OpenAI and figure out a way to make their work more "open" and "accessible" to puny humans who does not possess a billion dollar computing cluster.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Altman

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#182
A little off-topic but I’ve been thinking about technological progress and its impact on inflation recently. In 2018 Jay Powell partly blamed Amazon (and others) for pushing prices down so much that the fed wasn’t able to hit its inflation targets [0]. Isn’t Sam’s vision also inherently deflationary? If consumer prices keep dropping due to technological progress, shouldn’t we keep printing money?

I’m still a little sceptical of Sam’s vision coming to pass, but if it does, it’ll have some weird consequences on monetary policy.

[0]: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/01/new-fed-chairman-says-amazon...

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#183
To the author:

Stick to pealing the layer on top of what you see in your daily, AI, for now the only output being some analysis and synthesis for some data that has meaning, and is in the hands of a few, for the few. SQL for human data mongers.

The data in the public domain are one of many, botched, out of focus, wrong datasets, lack of context, a mix of right context, too limited scope to data... as is your own admitted supposition, of what you see is not what you suggest it would mean. Garbage in garbage out, a DdOS on AI is the big one to solve for now?

Add some inevitable layers, individual psychology, societal collective psychology, surplus population and their going rate of psychological settings, the list of variables "known" is endless, even more so are there hiding some very well known "unknowns".

Some serious contenders of raw AI are bluntly omitted, the size of the global population versus the index of resources of the iron-ore ball as is the planet. Relying on "money", a sublimated layer, to account for anything but a tool for social engineering, as is your outright omission to define at all AI, it's reliance on the most infinitesimal part of the few (humans), the outright wrong definition of wealth in it's relativity and dynamics, the USA as a definite part of the planet, derivatives of all and everything, i really do not know where to stop to end the rant.

As a remark to your artisan ready for consumption product page, ...it is not very data searches friendly, it has a very limited scope, it is suggestive of different proven fallacies, and has no definite declared vocabulary.

Are you to blame, of course not, as you suggest yourself AI and not "universal" human genie, as in disproportion of memory and processing capacity is to blame. As long as energy is infinite at the level of AI, the processing versus energy economy of the human brain, as is that even more energy efficient processing brain of say a raven, is largely overpowered in meaning as to the absolute (till now, not necessarily tomorrow), and the nano-technologies and biology of genetics), inferior scalability of human minds.

When crudely put, nano-technology, the biology of genetics (Corona probably), are serious contenders readily to cooperate. Again the case for lack of scope and context of the tease of your blog page.

Publish or perish well assumed, you Sir are desperately clinging to the flimsy single rope, trying not to drown. Jouralists and media, politics build a living on this, it is called a narrative. I am very convinced that you could come up with such, say every week or two.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#184
post #7

> This revolution will generate enough wealth for everyone to have what they need We had enough wealth for everyone to have what we need a long time ago. No matter how much we have humans always want more. AI won't change that.

Human wants for things are endless. Human desire for extra time, even more so. Human needs are subjective to each and every human. Why does Bezos get up in the morning?, if you’d like something aphoristic you may reply to in many creative ways.

There is a lot of hubris in saying we’re pretty much maxed out now, thanks and time to stop. I’d suggest instead we need to make smart choices, and that usually smart answers are not found at the far extremities. This “we have all we need” bit reminds me of scientists saying physics was over in the 19th century, combined with a bit of Thomas Malthus in such a way that we all die unless we halt innovation. It reminds me of that, but I’d be overstepping to put those words in your mouth. After all human intention has endless range to match the rest.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#185
post #134
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Status is a big deal. A wealth differential allows one to order other people around, building up status. Those others then feel the need to get out from under the yoke, or at least to be in the position to order around other-other people. All of this requires continuous wealth accumulation to which there is no limit. You would have to redefine status to end this game.

Also note that a situation where humanity's productivity is expanding is way better from a social standpoint than one where it is stagnant. The first allows positive sum games to exist. The second is a zero sum game. Of course there is a limit to growth as the reachable universe is finite.

If the goal of wealth accumulation is not actually to be better off but to be better than your neighbour (as it is), then positive sum games become zero sum games functionally.

So no, that's not really a solution either.

But even then, the goal isn't to limit human productivity, is it? It's to limit how much we work and lifestyle inflation, which doesn't require growth to go to zero.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#186
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've spent what is likely way too much mental energy wondering about this, and I'm no closer to an answer. Is there any limit to lifestyle inflation? Is it possible to have growth that simply outpaces what a human could possibly consume? Intuitively it seems obvious that there should be something like that, but in the 1800s our growth today would seem like it should be enough.

Status is a big deal. A wealth differential allows one to order other people around, building up status. Those others then feel the need to get out from under the yoke, or at least to be in the position to order around other-other people. All of this requires continuous wealth accumulation to which there is no limit. You would have to redefine status to end this game.

"A house may be large or small; as long as the neighboring houses are likewise small, it satisfies all social requirement for a residence. But let there arise next to the little house a palace, and the little house shrinks to a hut. The little house now makes it clear that its inmate has no social position at all to maintain."

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#187
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is a good take- Having things be better for horses was never the point of the economy. In fact horses were probably the main driver for developing mechanical solutions since horse ownership is expensive and time consuming. There was no incentive to make life/jobs better for horses, and as soon as a better replacement was available horses were not necessary for most people. So you cant swap out horses for…

What's the incentive to make life/jobs better for humans?

Incentive? not having to do hard labor? making more money?

I think that most technology has made life easier if not measurably better for humans. Medicine, machinery, transportation. Those things dont make life better for people? I suppose the cynical take could be that it is for the 'ruling class' but I think the measured take is that even the lower rungs of society have at least some access to better jobs than they did 100 years ago.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#188
This essay cites no sources and provides no data to back up its big claims and projections. It’s interesting to hear what someone close to emerging technologies is thinking, but big claims require big evidence. It reads like reading Marx, or Kurzwell, or other utopian “futurists” more than anything practical and realistic.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#189
post #184
post #7

> This revolution will generate enough wealth for everyone to have what they need We had enough wealth for everyone to have what we need a long time ago. No matter how much we have humans always want more. AI won't change that.

Human wants for things are endless. Human desire for extra time, even more so. Human needs are subjective to each and every human. Why does Bezos get up in the morning?, if you’d like something aphoristic you may reply to in many creative ways. There is a lot of hubris in saying we’re pretty much maxed out now, thanks and time to stop. I’d suggest instead we need to make smart choices, and that usually smart answers…

>Human needs are subjective to each and every human

After a certain point that's true but I think you miss the point of the parent. There are many, many hungry people in the world, many people without shelter and further millions who have no access to healthcare education or even clean water. These are not subjective needs.

Those people are in that position inspite of the fact that we could, with the wealth we have, feed, house and provide health care and education for each and every one of them.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#190

> We will discover new jobs–we always do after a technological revolution CGP grey put this well > Imagine a pair of horses in the early 1900s talking about technology. One worries all these new mechanical muscles (cars etc) will make horses unnecessary. The other horse reminds him that everything so far has made their lives easier - remember all that farm work? Remember running coast-to-coast delivering mail? Rememb…

Horses aren't the center of the economy, though. It's fundamentally different. Horses might always want more and more things no matter how much they get. But they don't create demand in our economy, so we'll never know. No matter how much humans get, they'll always want more. And other humans will have to come up with ways to meet that demand. Sure - if we ever reach a time where the entire human race says "this is e…

As you pointed out there has been high demand for toilets even during recent years, and yet unemployment is a thing that still exists in the world.

Where are all the toilet-manufacturing and toilet-installing jobs? We certainly have the technology to produce billions of toilets if we as a society decided to. We know there are billions of humans who need toilets, why isn't this demand creating jobs? Where are the toilets?

A big part of the answer to that question is that the billions of people who need toilets can't afford them, because they don't have jobs that would enable them to pay for toilets.

Toilets are so easy to manufacture at our technological level that toilet factories don't require many workers. Certainly not billions of workers, but we have billions of humans who need toilets.

Maybe the same problem affects all products. Will technology advance until 10000 or 10 or zero human workers will be required to run all the factories in the entire world for every imaginable product? Where then will billions of unemployed humans get money to buy the products from those factories?

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