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Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

wsj.com

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Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#181

Post by standardUser »

statstutor wrote: post #80
cheph wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Manaus shows that pursuing herd immunity through natural infection is not a guarantee. Not a guarantee of what? Are we suggesting that we have a virus here that, unlike every previous virus, we can only reach herd immunity for with a vaccine?

I don't believe there is any named virus where we have reached herd immunity without a vaccine. Herd immunity was defined by the theory that it would prevent the spread of measles. It only did so with any measurable effect after universal vaccination was introduced.

Zika is presumed to have receded due to natural herd immunity.

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#182

Post by standardUser »

roelschroeven wrote: post #46
cheph wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Manaus shows that pursuing herd immunity through natural infection is not a guarantee. Not a guarantee of what? Are we suggesting that we have a virus here that, unlike every previous virus, we can only reach herd immunity for with a vaccine?

For what viruses have we reached meaningful herd immunity without vaccines?

Zika is one.

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#183

Post by simonh »

tinus_hn wrote: post #75
marcodiego wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only thing we can learn from Manaus is that waiting for herd immunity is a very bad idea.

Yeah, we better destroy the economy with lockdowns while waiting for vaccines that don’t work against these new strains, and then pay the price for herd immunity as well.

I give up. First it's hoax, then it's just a bad flu, then it's going to disappear like magic, then a second wave is impossible, then it's that vaccines aren't necessary and don't work. Meanwhile, people die in their thousands per day and the death toll piles up and hospitals get over-run with dying patients.

As for lockdowns, we know from analysis of the Spanish Flu epidemic that cities with successful lockdowns suffered less economically, because cities that didn't lock down had worse outbreaks that lead to longer lasting deeper economic damage. China had the mother of all lockdowns and is back to robust economic growth, and yes comparing the US or Europe to small island states makes no sense, but China isn't a small island state.

You know what, I don't care. There's no vaccine required to be immune to facts. Whatever you claim to believe, when it's proved wrong and predictions based on it fail to happen you'll just come up with some other bullshit to believe instead. Whatever.

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#184

Post by jwlake »

Zimahl wrote: post #124
chasd00 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yes, "Covid will be mostly gone by April" would mean the beginning April. However, if it's not gone, you can assume the response will be "oh i meant by the end of April".

You have to love those moving goalposts.

2 weeks to bend the curve!

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#185

Post by aww_dang »

jessaustin wrote: post #177
nimbius wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

s/We'll have/I really really want/ These sadly arent the exclusive purvey of the journal. plenty of other dog-trainers and nightly consumer-news shows often feature what amounts to a thinly-veiled quarantine tantrum masquerading as insightful critique.

News firms in USA optimize for audience size. Most Americans would rather listen to Pollyanna bullshit than uncomfortable truth. So, the news firms mostly publish wishful thinking. According to some of these shallow beings, we were supposed to have "herd immunity" by last April. Here in the real world, it's still not clear that this concept is even possible with the covid virus.

What about the old adage of "fear sells"? Do doomsday predictions no longer generate clicks?

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#186

Post by anoonmoose »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #173
anoonmoose wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If one football team got beat 8-0, and another football team got beat 9-1, should we really be spending time arguing about which team is better when they're both pretty obviously not very good?

It's not about teams, it's about attempting to evaluate the counterfactual. If the difference between the US and Australia is primarily due to lockdowns, you would expect to see areas with more lockdown do better than areas with less. Much better, to a degree that drowns out any noise, since the overall difference is so vast. And that really doesn't seem to be what we observe.

You're acting like there were parts of the US in 100% lockdown vs 0% lockdown, when the difference is a lot more like 20% (max) vs 10%, and it's a lot harder to suss out any difference in result when the difference in practice is that small.

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#187

Post by standardUser »

jcadam wrote: post #86

So by April we'll have a new crisis in order to keep the lock-downs rolling.

Who benefits from that? Are we supposed to believe that some cabal is orchestrating a global conspiracy, spanning every nation and culture, in order to destroy the global economy for some master plan?

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#188

Post by jessaustin »

tinus_hn wrote: post #110
DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking back at the strategies that different countries have pursued over the last year, the most effective strategy has undoubtedly been to implement a strict lockdown for several weeks, nearly completely eliminating the virus, and then following up with aggressive contact-tracing whenever any case pops up. Countries that have done this have had far fewer deaths and have suffered less economically. The alternatives…

No, the only solution that has worked is being an isolated nation and blocking international travel from the beginning. For 90% of countries that was never an option anyway and for most of the rest that ship has long sailed. The countries that have tried, like Israel, have seen so much success with that strategy they are now in their third lockdown. And that’s with the best vaccination numbers of the world.

...best vaccination numbers of the world.

That's for Jewish residents. Apartheid states direct all benefits to the favored class. That works, until pandemic time. Palestinians are human too, and since they haven't been vaccinated at all they are a persistent source of covid.

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#189

Post by makomk »

jimbokun wrote: post #156
carlmr wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If lockdowns were taken seriously from the start, it would had prevented going wild and risking new strains. I don't think a strategy that needs every country on earth to cooperate this tightly ever had a chance to work. Most countries aren't the first world, most countries don't have the resources to test and quarantine properly, most countries can't afford lockdowns. On top of that a lot of countries have much wor…

> Most countries aren't the first world, most countries don't have the resources to test and quarantine properly, most countries can't afford lockdowns. The United States meets all these criteria, and has the highest number of cases and deaths in the world. (And near the top in per-capita measures, too.)

Of course a country with the resources to test properly has the highest number of cases and deaths in the world, because if you can't test properly you can't detect Covid-19 cases and deaths. I know the American press has fed its citizens a load of nonsense about this for nakedly partisan reasons, just like it has with every other part of the Covid-19 crisis, and it's getting tiring...

Re: Opinion: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

#190

Post by 1shooner »

dragonwriter wrote: post #154
swivelmaster wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pointing out that someone is not an expert at something is not an ad hominem.

Arguing against someone's position by simply stating (truthfully or not) that they are not an expert is textbook ad hominem .

What counter-argument are you referring to? I only see a comment that points out the author isn't an epidemiologist, which seems relevant to an epidemiological prediction.
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