London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing • Hacker News Board

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#181

Post by rossdavidh » Thu, Jan 07, 2021, 12:11 AM UTC

stupidcar wrote: post #28

This article is confusing. It starts off by saying this is an analysis of "best" and "worst" case scenarios for continued growth in cases, but later it says: > HSJ understands that the briefing was part of an attempt to get senior clinical leaders to focus on what they would have to do, if current growth trends were not surpressed by the tighter lockdown . So, er, what if the growth trends are suppressed by the tight…

I agree that the "best case" scenario should probably involve some impact from the lockdown (after a delay), but given the experience in California (which was that the lockdown didn't slow things down much, if at all), it seems at least plausible to look at what happens if the same is true in the U.K.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#182

Post by smcl » Thu, Jan 07, 2021, 12:11 AM UTC

polote wrote: post #151

patrec wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speaking only for myself, I think your opinion is idiotic based on some simple back of the envelope math I did many months ago (when the UK announced its herd immunity plan), relating to hospital capacity, likely peak case numbers, proportion of cases that would need hospital treatment or die and some simple minded guesses about knock-on effects for the rest of the health system. I have not bothered to redo these cal…

if we let the virus lives its life, maximum 2% of pop will die, 90 more % will live normally and a few percent will have covid related health issues. so we sacrifice a few percent of population for the future of the others

So by that calculation 1.32 million people (2% of 66 million) would die and we're supposed to NOT react strongly to people who hold that opinion?

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#183

Post by war1025 » Thu, Jan 07, 2021, 12:11 AM UTC

markdown wrote: post #135

WaitWaitWha wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/currently-hospitalized... hospitalization by state: 342 per million FL 569 per million CA 444 per million PA 442 per million NY Can anyone point me to similar chart for death per million, by state, over time?

22k dead in Florida. I guess if nobody in your family is included in that figure, it's all peachy.

Funny, I didn't see anyone calling to shutter the economy when my dad was dying of cancer. Similarly, I didn't see any great outrage this summer when my uncle died of a heart attack.

Death is tragic, but it's also a fact of life.

A lot of people have fallen into the trap of making fear a virtue this year.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#184

Post by eznzt » Thu, Jan 07, 2021, 12:11 AM UTC

matthewmacleod wrote: post #153

ppod wrote: post #77

People who are making claims about hospital capacity should compare them to the same times in previous years. The data is all available online: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas...

This is a consistent taking point among the more egregious parts of the “lockdown skeptic” crew and it is, of course, absolute bullshit - it’s based on shallow comparisons of numbers that are not comparable. If you do decide to promote this talking point anyway, flag it with the appropriate disclaimer from the NHS: …caution should be exercised in comparing overall occupancy rates between this year and previous years.…

The NHS depends on the government and is therefore not a neutral source.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#185

Post by jiggawatts » Thu, Jan 07, 2021, 12:11 AM UTC

noncoml wrote: post #38

Because on one hand the government thinks it's OK for people to die alone in ICU and bury them without their friends of family[1]. But on the other hand said that it's OK to meet people to celebrate Xmas with[2]. Sources: [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-52312653 [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-55056375 Edit: Downvoted? It's not even my opinion. It's facts. Damn. Or do you think that's not the r…

Meanwhile in Australia the "cricket has to go ahead", crowds and all, despite Sydney being on the knife-edge of heading towards a second wave. All because the politicians involved are huge cricket fans and even server on the boards of cricketing organizations.

I've never understood why politicians are allowed to have such blatant conflicts of interest, but they get to write the rules, not us...

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#186

Post by jiggawatts » Thu, Jan 07, 2021, 12:13 AM UTC

krona wrote: post #34

jiggawatts wrote: post #9

If a mutant strain of COVID-19 becomes twice as deadly, this "merely" doubles the pressure on hospitals. A constant factor like this can be dealt with. However, an increased rate of spread (R factor) is a change in the parameter of the exponential curve, and cannot be dealt with by any sub-exponential response. The only thing that could possibly work is to change the factor. Rapid vaccination or lockdown. It's imposs…

> This change in the virulence is more scary. I think you mean infectivity (relating to transmission), not virulence.

Thanks, I edited the sentence.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#187

Post by icefo » Thu, Jan 07, 2021, 12:13 AM UTC

polote wrote: post #138

jpxw wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re allowed to think it, it’s just patently idiotic. Our hospitals would be overwhelmed, the morality rate would skyrocket amongst COVID and non-COVID patients alike.

So now the number of free icu beds in hospital and number of death are the only kpi we look at to make decisions? It is crazy how people opinion like mine is fully ignored in Europe. today we tolerate flu deaths so that people can live freely, why shouldn't we tolerate covid deaths to live freely?

The people that have serious cases of the flu don't overwhelm the hospitals because a good part of the vulnerable population get vaccinated. The herd immunity also plays a role because this kind of virus has been around for a long time.

We could decide that lockdowns / restrictions are not good but then we also have to be okay with letting lot of people die gasping for air and drowning in their own lungs at home / in the hospital corridors. As much as I hate not being able to socialize how I like I still prefer that and it seem to also be the case for most of the population.

I have no idea if we'll ever be able to eradicate the Covid but if we don't it might become just an other flu when enough people are vaccinated or had it.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#188

Post by rossdavidh » Thu, Jan 07, 2021, 12:13 AM UTC

pjc50 wrote: post #2

I believe certain hospitals are already at the stage of queuing ambulances outside and are breaching the four hour wait times. This is a consequence of loosening the lockdown for Christmas.

While I'm sure there are several causes, it would seem that the new strain is the much more fundamental cause.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#189

Post by patrec » Thu, Jan 07, 2021, 12:14 AM UTC

polote wrote: post #151

patrec wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speaking only for myself, I think your opinion is idiotic based on some simple back of the envelope math I did many months ago (when the UK announced its herd immunity plan), relating to hospital capacity, likely peak case numbers, proportion of cases that would need hospital treatment or die and some simple minded guesses about knock-on effects for the rest of the health system. I have not bothered to redo these cal…

if we let the virus lives its life, maximum 2% of pop will die, 90 more % will live normally and a few percent will have covid related health issues. so we sacrifice a few percent of population for the future of the others

There are already multiple working vaccines. Why on earth would you even contemplate killing or permanently damaging over a million people, just in the UK alone? Do you really think that 90% of the remaining population will be cool with that and continue to lead a normal life amidst all of this? Even a good fraction of other people in the bottom decile for empathy might waver in their commitment to lead a normal and maximally economically productive life if they are (understandably) worried about the risks this brings to their own well-being.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#190

Post by smcl » Thu, Jan 07, 2021, 12:14 AM UTC

polote wrote: post #138

jpxw wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re allowed to think it, it’s just patently idiotic. Our hospitals would be overwhelmed, the morality rate would skyrocket amongst COVID and non-COVID patients alike.

So now the number of free icu beds in hospital and number of death are the only kpi we look at to make decisions? It is crazy how people opinion like mine is fully ignored in Europe. today we tolerate flu deaths so that people can live freely, why shouldn't we tolerate covid deaths to live freely?

We don't tolerate flu deaths. We actually work hard every single year to prevent them - providing inoculations for the sick and vulnerable for one thing. People die in spite of all the efforts we put into preventing them from doing so.