Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

japantimes.co.jp

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

181–190 of 291 posts

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#181

Post by blhack »

CWuestefeld wrote: post #96

How is this news at all? The virus has been mutating and throwing off different strains all along. There are entire websites devoted to tracking these, e.g., [1] Perhaps this is just the normal operation of American media to exaggerate the negative side of the situation? [2] [1] https://nextstrain.org/sars-cov-2/ [2] PDF link: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28110/w281...

>American media

1) This is from a Japanese website.

2) Could you point me in the direction of a nation which has media that doesn't over exaggerate things?

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#182

Post by School-Cotton »

qwerty1234599 wrote: post #65
gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But COVID-19 also has a _very_ large incidence of asymptomatic transmission Does it? Meta-analysis concluding secondary attack rate in households from asymptomatic transmission around 0.7%. > Household secondary attack rates were increased from symptomatic index cases (18.0%; 95% CI, 14.2%-22.1%) than from asymptomatic index cases (0.7%; 95% CI, 0%-4.9%) https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle.…

Yes it does. The disease would have been eradicated a long time ago if it didn't have asymptomatic transmission. (see: SARS and MERS)

MERS has not been eradicated.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#183

Post by chrisjs95 »

GuB-42 wrote: post #138
GregarianChild wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Copy Taiwan. No country has been dealing better with Covid than Taiwan. No lockdown, and > 200 days without new Covid case [1]. Taipei had daily direct flights from Wuhan, and the Diamond Princess mooring near Taipei. They told the world early on [2] how they did it. Summary: Border closure, contract tracing, testing and controlled quarantine for those testing positive . It's worth reading [2] to realise how swiftly,…

I often see "copy this country" but often, it is simply not possible, policies are usually a result of each country specificities more than the other way around. For Taiwan. - It is an island - It has an effective, well centralized surveillance network - It has (presumably) an obedient population, or at least, one that don't think personal freedom includes the right to spread the disease - They were well prepared tha…

You're missing the biggest thing. They don't have a large population of morbidly obese people and race more susceptible to comorbidities (African American)

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#184

Post by landemva »

It is difficult to know what sources of information to trust. I already have antibodies, and thought I would be ok for a while. If this is a new strain, how would they know to make a vaccine for it, and how many vaccines will I need each year?

Also, the article here says "case count". I'm really interested in the count of "excess deaths".

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#185

Post by nradov »

sjg007 wrote: post #152

Just wait until it mutates and starts killing kids. Kids are currently the last to be vaccinated. I know this is morbid but this does not bode well but there is precedent. Spanish flu first only killed the elderly and then on its return killed young adults and kids disproportionately. Now the Spanish flu was influenza and this is coronavirus but this specific coronavirus should not be underestimated. I’ve said this f…

Well OC43 has been around for over a century and never mutated to start killing kids. So why would this be virus do that? Your speculation seems uninformed.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#186

Post by space_fountain »

landemva wrote: post #184

It is difficult to know what sources of information to trust. I already have antibodies, and thought I would be ok for a while. If this is a new strain, how would they know to make a vaccine for it, and how many vaccines will I need each year? Also, the article here says "case count". I'm really interested in the count of "excess deaths".

I'm also a lay person so take this with a grain of salt. There isn't evidence that this new variant can reinfect people who previously had covid and all the expert speculation I've heard is that it probably won't break out of immunity. It's better to be cautious, but also no need to think the worst

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#187

Post by nradov »

DebtDeflation wrote: post #84

Has there ever been any genomic sequencing done to pinpoint what made SARS and especially MERS so much more deadly than SARS-CoV-2?

The genomes for all three viruses have been published so it's easy enough to find the differences. But that doesn't directly tell us why the fatality rates are different.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#188

Post by kinghtown »

GuB-42 wrote: post #138
GregarianChild wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Copy Taiwan. No country has been dealing better with Covid than Taiwan. No lockdown, and > 200 days without new Covid case [1]. Taipei had daily direct flights from Wuhan, and the Diamond Princess mooring near Taipei. They told the world early on [2] how they did it. Summary: Border closure, contract tracing, testing and controlled quarantine for those testing positive . It's worth reading [2] to realise how swiftly,…

I often see "copy this country" but often, it is simply not possible, policies are usually a result of each country specificities more than the other way around. For Taiwan. - It is an island - It has an effective, well centralized surveillance network - It has (presumably) an obedient population, or at least, one that don't think personal freedom includes the right to spread the disease - They were well prepared tha…

I live in Taiwan.. I’m grateful to be living here during Covid.

Taiwanese people aren’t obedient. You should see how they drive.

They wear masks without flaking out about it as slavery or being against their will or whatever nonsense you guys are on about back home in the west.

Taiwanese people are couch potatoes and extremely reserved. They don’t really want to meet new people or hang out with strangers.

Also the government here didn’t play games in the early weeks. No wait and see business as usual lazy bullshit like in the US. They check tour temperature everywhere, mall entrances, restaurants, government buildings.

The us most certainly should copy Taiwan.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#189

Post by ksaj »

maxerickson wrote: post #168
harimau777 wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it possible that they are all effectively islands? For example, it appears that Vietnam has miles of jungle between its major cities and neighboring countries. The same cannot be said for the US and Europe.

There's not a whole lot of evidence that illegal border crossings from Canada are a major driver of the spread in the US. And of course, the same can be said for Mexico (because the main driver of the spread in the US is people not taking simple steps to prevent it). Travel to Canada has been restricted for much of the year (I live in Michigan; there's a warning 4 hours from the border that travel is restricted). But…

> There's not a whole lot of evidence that illegal border crossings from Canada are a major driver of the spread in the US.

Ironically it's the other way around, too. Our borders are shut to tourists, but they keep showing up in Canmore and Banff anyway. And now Alberta has a serious problem with Covid spread, and a friend of my sister's just died a couple days ago from it. They have 1/3 the population of Ontario, yet close to the same numbers of daily cases and hospitalizations, which suggests triple the velocity.

There are compounding reasons as well, but everyone I know that lives there is complaining about all the Americans constantly showing up.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#190

Post by lhl »

GuB-42 wrote: post #138
GregarianChild wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Copy Taiwan. No country has been dealing better with Covid than Taiwan. No lockdown, and > 200 days without new Covid case [1]. Taipei had daily direct flights from Wuhan, and the Diamond Princess mooring near Taipei. They told the world early on [2] how they did it. Summary: Border closure, contract tracing, testing and controlled quarantine for those testing positive . It's worth reading [2] to realise how swiftly,…

I often see "copy this country" but often, it is simply not possible, policies are usually a result of each country specificities more than the other way around. For Taiwan. - It is an island - It has an effective, well centralized surveillance network - It has (presumably) an obedient population, or at least, one that don't think personal freedom includes the right to spread the disease - They were well prepared tha…

All of the things you've noted are true, but the flip side is that that there seems to be a "we've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas" (or worse, flat out pandemic denialism) mentality that takes hold instead of thinking about whether it would be possible to push for some of the most obvious policies that have been shown to be the most effective (eg, enforcing testing and quarantine for all travelers, improved science communication around a respiratory pandemic). Also, it's been 10+ months, so to the degree that developed countries like the US lack sufficient PPE manufacturing, it's certainly not down to resources or capabilities (or anything besides political will in the US considering the DPA could be invoked at any time).

Also, most countries still seem to be ignoring the best/cheapest way to control spread via rapid testing and isolation. This has been not only modeled extensively at this point [1][2], but also proven to be effective by sports leagues (NBA, MLB) and Universities (look at where UIUC has kept their numbers vs the state: https://go.illinois.edu/COVIDTestingData )

[1] Larremore, Daniel B, Bryan Wilder, Evan Lester, Soraya Shehata, James M Burke, James A Hay, Milind Tambe, Michael J Mina, and Roy Parker. “Test Sensitivity Is Secondary to Frequency and Turnaround Time for COVID-19 Surveillance.” Preprint. Infectious Diseases (except HIV/AIDS), June 25, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.22.20136309.

[2] Atkeson, Andrew, Michael C. Droste, Michael Mina, and James H. Stock. “Economic Benefits of COVID-19 Screening Tests.” National Bureau of Economic Research, November 2, 2020. https://doi.org/10.3386/w28031.

Post reply on HN