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FDA grants authorization to Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine

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Re: FDA grants authorization to Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine

#181

Post by tertius »

blhack wrote: post #174
tertius wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they haven't been proven to be infected why should it matter?

What? They have been proven to be infected (PCR positive) and they are now receiving the vaccine.

PCR positive doesn't mean infected.

You'll need an high amount in PCR, i.e. low cycle threshold for the probability to be high.

Antigen tests will show if there was/is an infection.

PCR does not show infection only presence. (WHO has now put out guidance about this. They don't have to it's well known.)

If you're European this may be strange to you but I'm the U.S. we don't receive the cycle count when the RNA for the virus is detected.

Here's Fauci talking about it a little: https://youtu.be/a_Vy6fgaBPE&t=4m30s

Re: FDA grants authorization to Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine

#182

Post by nerdponx »

davycro wrote: post #171
bsaul wrote: post #118

i'm surprised absolutely noone here talks about the fact that we have absolutely no idea what the long term consequences of this new tech are. We've all seen people advocating new wonderful technological solutions that fail because of unknown unknowns, in every field. That's just the rules of the R&D game. In that case we're seriously thinking about injecting a new kind of drug to the whole world population based on…

The case fatality rate is around 1.8% in the USA [1]. Current population is 330 million. So if the entire population becomes infected that’s 5.9 million dead. The case fatality rate would likely increase as we overwhelm healthcare resources, so it could be even worse. 1% may sound trivial but it becomes meaningful at the scale of a population. The benefits of the vaccine far outweigh the risks. I was injected yesterd…

Thank you for being willing to take the still-nonzero risk of a lightly tested vaccine.

I am fortunate enough to be a remote employee with little need (or desire) to interact in ways that I could spread or receive Covid-19, so I personally will wait a while for more data on safety and efficacy.

Re: FDA grants authorization to Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine

#183

Post by nerdponx »

rimliu wrote: post #133
bsaul wrote: post #118

i'm surprised absolutely noone here talks about the fact that we have absolutely no idea what the long term consequences of this new tech are. We've all seen people advocating new wonderful technological solutions that fail because of unknown unknowns, in every field. That's just the rules of the R&D game. In that case we're seriously thinking about injecting a new kind of drug to the whole world population based on…

Ok, what the mechanism for the long term consequences would be? mRNA itself is gone in days. All what's left is antibodies and some immune memory which should be the same as if you had real COVID. Is that more dangerous than catching covid which may affect your body in many more ways than vaccine which makes your cells to produce a particular protein? I do not know what the long term effects of the glass of water I j…

Who knows? There is so much that we don't understand. And so much of what we claim to understand, we do not understand completely.

Re: FDA grants authorization to Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine

#184

Post by bsaul »

Siira wrote: post #163
bsaul wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"inhumane attitude" could also be a good qualifier for using the population as lab rats. it's called a tradeof , and public policies is doing it all the time, including accepting people dying for the greater good of others. Otherwise we would have banned cars a long time ago.

No one is forcing you to take the vaccine. What’s wrong with you?

Wait until countries decide to close their borders to people that haven't been vaccinated.

Most countries in asia already ask for a negative PCR test for tourists, and some (like malaysia) have been in lockdown for almost the whole year despite having had less than a thousand casualties in total.

I wouldn't be surprised if madness reaches another level very soon.

Re: FDA grants authorization to Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine

#185

Post by bsaul »

rimliu wrote: post #134
bsaul wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"inhumane attitude" could also be a good qualifier for using the population as lab rats. it's called a tradeof , and public policies is doing it all the time, including accepting people dying for the greater good of others. Otherwise we would have banned cars a long time ago.

So vaccine looks more dangerous to you than COVID, despite numbers showing that's not the case? 20 in 1000 dying from COVID-19 is somehow acceptable, but two in hundreds of thousands getting some allergic reaction is not? How does one even justify that logic?

The problem is covid is short-term and part of a family of well-known and well-studied virus. Some vaccine can have very long-term consequences.

There is simply no way to correctly assess the risk, unless you think that ARN therapy is a known technique. Which it clearly isn't.

Re: FDA grants authorization to Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine

#186

Post by Izkata »

davycro wrote: post #171
bsaul wrote: post #118

i'm surprised absolutely noone here talks about the fact that we have absolutely no idea what the long term consequences of this new tech are. We've all seen people advocating new wonderful technological solutions that fail because of unknown unknowns, in every field. That's just the rules of the R&D game. In that case we're seriously thinking about injecting a new kind of drug to the whole world population based on…

The case fatality rate is around 1.8% in the USA [1]. Current population is 330 million. So if the entire population becomes infected that’s 5.9 million dead. The case fatality rate would likely increase as we overwhelm healthcare resources, so it could be even worse. 1% may sound trivial but it becomes meaningful at the scale of a population. The benefits of the vaccine far outweigh the risks. I was injected yesterd…

> The case fatality rate is around 1.8% in the USA [1]. Current population is 330 million. So if the entire population becomes infected that’s 5.9 million dead.

It won't get anywhere near that, as it doesn't take into account asymptomatic (I've seen estimates in some areas as high as 20:1, which would put the number dead at ~300k) and due to herd immunity not everyone is going to get infected anyway.

Re: FDA grants authorization to Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine

#187

Post by markus92 »

rualca wrote: post #170
markus92 wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pfizer is spending a considerable amount of money on their cold chain, for example buying up pretty much all ultra-low temperature freezers they can find. I personally doubt they'd still be spending that money if they needed it, there's been plenty of time for a stability analysis by now.

> I personally doubt they'd still be spending that money if they needed it, there's been plenty of time for a stability analysis by now. I don't believe your logic follows. There's a lot riding on this vaccine working as advertised, thus there is considerable pressure on Pfizer/BioNTech to deliver on that promise. If they know their vaccine is at peak effectiveness when transported at -90ºC and that the effectiveness…

That's true, on the other hand, consider that Moderna has lowered storage requirements twice in the past four months. This gives us three options, Is it Moderna taking more risks, Pfizer being more risk-averse or is the Moderna one inherently more stable?

Re: FDA grants authorization to Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine

#188

Post by arrrg »

ulfw wrote: post #140
dharma1 wrote: post #137

Is CureVac still in the race? What other mRNA companies are there that are doing interesting work in the space (beyond COVID)?

They are, but very very slow. Their 2b/3 trial only started this week. Almost a year into the pandemic. https://www.curevac.com/en/2020/12/14/curevac-commences-glob...

That’s not slow. That’s just not the fastest. They are solidly leading the mid field.

Also, given current high incidences I suspect phase 3 might be quite quick, which means Q3 or Q2 approval.

Re: FDA grants authorization to Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine

#189

Post by marvin »

rimliu wrote: post #133
bsaul wrote: post #118

i'm surprised absolutely noone here talks about the fact that we have absolutely no idea what the long term consequences of this new tech are. We've all seen people advocating new wonderful technological solutions that fail because of unknown unknowns, in every field. That's just the rules of the R&D game. In that case we're seriously thinking about injecting a new kind of drug to the whole world population based on…

Ok, what the mechanism for the long term consequences would be? mRNA itself is gone in days. All what's left is antibodies and some immune memory which should be the same as if you had real COVID. Is that more dangerous than catching covid which may affect your body in many more ways than vaccine which makes your cells to produce a particular protein? I do not know what the long term effects of the glass of water I j…

The thing about "unknown unknowns" is that they are unknown. It's like asking "what could possibly be outside the edge of the map, surely it's more of the same".

This isn't a matter of water flowing downhill through a pipe or a piston moving through a cylinder. Although we have a good understanding of the process, we don't have decades of extensive engineering experience to give us empiric reassurance that there are no gotchas. We didn't put a billion people into airplanes nine months after the first commercial airliner was developed.

Sure, hopefully our current understanding is good enough and there are no long-term side effects. But it's naïve to assume a likelihood of 100%.

Although the elderly and sick have a high likelihood of a serious covid case, young and healthy people are exceedingly likely to have a mild disease. These probabilities are what you have to judge the confidence of long-term vaccine safety against.

Re: FDA grants authorization to Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine

#190

Post by em500 »

kart23 wrote: post #180
Siira wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yes they spent a lot of money and time creating the vaccine. Now open source it and let the rest of the world save their citizens. And who’s going to pay for it? The whole PPE shortage was exactly because of this entitled attitude. If you artificially limit prices, you’ll only limit the supply (to possibly nothing, as vaccines have high upfront costs), and enable scalpers. One obvious solution is to have a UN initi…

Ideally, they would realize that moral responsibility to save lives is greater than money in this case. I don't think money would even be a problem, public pressure would be enough if everyone knew what was at stake. The companies capable of manufacturing would still make money by selling the vaccine to governments and people.

Probably every doctor and nurse feels moral responsibility to save lives is greater than money in any specific case. But if you cut all their compensation to minimum wage plus a bit, I doubt many will keep working in health care for very long.
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