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Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

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Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#181

Post by papito »

holoduke wrote: post #165
mikesabbagh wrote: post #160

This self-driving system promise keeps getting delayed! It looks to me this is a case of a donkey led by a carrot on a stick (investors are the donkey here). What I never understand is what happens when a new situation that the system did not previously train for happen? what if this situation is deadly? Will all the Uber cars decide to jump off a cliff because of a wrong signalization or bad weather? What will the T…

I am convinced that it takes another 100 to 200 years before we really have smart self driving cars. Maybe it will never happen as I think it will be much more likely that we have self flying drones before long before. Airspace being regulated heavily and thus much more predictable for a machine.

In 100 years the self-driving cars will be on Mars.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#182

Post by boston_sre87 »

necubi wrote: post #17
thesimon wrote: post #6

Wasn't Uber's whole money losing strategy based on the vision that one day they'll use their self-driving cars to get the driving done for cheaper?

No, that was never the strategy, no matter how many times people on HN claimed it was. Both Uber and Lyft are aiming for profitability next year with human drivers. (Disclaimer, I work for Lyft but this has been said in public many, many times by both companies.)

What is the strategy to get to profitability then? Have only heard of the self driving route before.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#183

Post by dekhn »

LeoPanthera wrote: post #166
mikesabbagh wrote: post #160

This self-driving system promise keeps getting delayed! It looks to me this is a case of a donkey led by a carrot on a stick (investors are the donkey here). What I never understand is what happens when a new situation that the system did not previously train for happen? what if this situation is deadly? Will all the Uber cars decide to jump off a cliff because of a wrong signalization or bad weather? What will the T…

> What I never understand is what happens when a new situation that the system did not previously train for happen? This happens to human drivers all the time, and humans are really bad drivers even in situations that have happened before. I fully expect AI drivers to be safer than human drivers.

One pedestrian death due to cars occurs on average every ~200 million car-driven miles. Is that really bad?

(the math is based on # of US miles driven in 2017 divided by the number of car-caused pedestrian fatalities in the same year)

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#186

Post by pishpash »

ghaff wrote: post #152
JMTQp8lwXL wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What strategies do rideshare companies plan to employ to reach profitability: increasing prices, cutting costs, etc? And what will the implications be for riders and employees alike.

My assumption would be both. Taxi companies have way lower cost structures. They certainly don't employ lots of software engineers. And there's no reason to think that Uber should be significantly cheaper than a taxi ride. Scale buys you something but probably not a lot. (And scale has some costs too.)

You underestimate what you can extract from making the market larger and more efficient, which taxis could never do. Why don't people barter instead of paying huge sums to Wall Street to intermediate?

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#187

Post by cercatrova »

holoduke wrote: post #165
mikesabbagh wrote: post #160

This self-driving system promise keeps getting delayed! It looks to me this is a case of a donkey led by a carrot on a stick (investors are the donkey here). What I never understand is what happens when a new situation that the system did not previously train for happen? what if this situation is deadly? Will all the Uber cars decide to jump off a cliff because of a wrong signalization or bad weather? What will the T…

I am convinced that it takes another 100 to 200 years before we really have smart self driving cars. Maybe it will never happen as I think it will be much more likely that we have self flying drones before long before. Airspace being regulated heavily and thus much more predictable for a machine.

100 to 200 years is a very long time. Look at the exponential nature of technology, and even deep learning. Only in 2012 had the image network reached 90% accuracy levels, and now we have all sort of networks for all sorts of things, including style transfer for videos.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#188

Post by nl »

ZephyrBlu wrote: post #98
dboreham wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Put down the kool aid. There are no self-driving cars.

To be fair, the levels of self-driving are almost never discussed so it's no wonder people say things like "Tesla already has self-driving cars". For those unaware: - Level 0: No automation - Level 1: Driver assistance (Assisting steering or braking) - Level 2: Partial automation (Assisting steering AND braking) - Level 3: Conditional automation (Human supervised autonomy) - Level 4: High automation (Full automation…

There's nothing "to be fair" about this.

The levels are technical distinctions in a roadmap towards "self driving cars", which by any reasonable definition are Level 4 and 5.

Below that it is marketing for advanced cruise control features (level 1 and 2), or dangerous (level 3).

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#189

Post by lelandbatey »

tintor wrote: post #178
LeoPanthera wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What I never understand is what happens when a new situation that the system did not previously train for happen? This happens to human drivers all the time, and humans are really bad drivers even in situations that have happened before. I fully expect AI drivers to be safer than human drivers.

Human drivers can adapt to a new unseen before situation.

While potentially true, it's a trade off it seems proponents are willing to take.

The same kind of trade off happens with other modes of transport with very rigid constraints on movement, things like trains. A train can keep going, stop, or maybe with enough time reverse if there's tons of time and a strong need.

We don't stand around worrying saying "BUT WHAT IF SOMETHING'S ON THE TRACKS?!?", because the answer is "well then, the train will hit it. That's the tradeoff for being able to move freight so efficiently."

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#190

Post by JMTQp8lwXL »

pishpash wrote: post #186
ghaff wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My assumption would be both. Taxi companies have way lower cost structures. They certainly don't employ lots of software engineers. And there's no reason to think that Uber should be significantly cheaper than a taxi ride. Scale buys you something but probably not a lot. (And scale has some costs too.)

You underestimate what you can extract from making the market larger and more efficient, which taxis could never do. Why don't people barter instead of paying huge sums to Wall Street to intermediate?

Bartering in this problem space is hard. Let me call up 5 of my closest friends in my city, to see if they want to leave their home, drive me from Point A to Point B, then go home, right now.
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