With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books • Hacker News Board

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#181

Post by gowld » Tue, Jul 21, 2020, 9:02 PM UTC

coliveira wrote: post #95

pydry wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not strictly a "wrong leaders" problem. It's much more systemic than that. Elect a good leader and the oil will provide the impetus to tear that leader down. Industry also won't form because of Dutch disease. Who wants to build a factory in Saudi Arabia even if it weren't unstable? Everything just costs too much because of the oil - land, materials, labor. Sovereign wealth funds also don't really solve the probl…

> vulnerable to confiscation from foreign governments if they decide they don't like your face This should be a sign that the rule of law is in decline all over the world. What UK did and the US is doing is completely absurd, even when dealing with an authoritarian regime. Not only UK is holding gold that is not owned by them, but it is giving that gold to a pirate designated by the US. And this is bad not just for t…

"the rule of law" is different from "one world government".

"Foreign government" means "different laws".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53262767

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#182

Post by prepend » Tue, Jul 21, 2020, 9:29 PM UTC

ArkVark wrote: post #176

prepend wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like Dubai has 4 billion barrels of reserves [0]. Not as much as they once did and much less than Abu Dhabi. But still quite a few years worth of oil left. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_the_United_Ara...

For the UAE overall crude oil makes up 28% of exports: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_Arab_Emi... and Refined petroleum 15% If you want to see an Arab country that has run out of oil, look at Yemen.

My understanding is that Yemen has lots of reserves at 8 billion barrels [0] but never really produced or imported.

So aren’t they a better example of never oil rather than once had oil?

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Yemen

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#183

Post by a3n » Tue, Jul 21, 2020, 10:05 PM UTC

ogre_codes wrote: post #155

giantrobot wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trains would like to have a word.

With 10s of thousands of miles of lines, it would be pretty monumental to electrify the entire US train system. Considering how efficient modern diesel trains are, That should be pretty low on our list of things to convert. Nuclear trains might make sense with some of the newer reactors... but we know that'll never happen.

> Nuclear trains might make sense

Modern steam engines!

But I guess they'd have to construct a lot of water stations. The stops to take on water might negate some of the advantages.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#184

Post by a3n » Tue, Jul 21, 2020, 10:15 PM UTC

grayfaced wrote: post #152

samstave wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I recall that quote. Sadly, while prescient that quote is - he still is (has?) done nothing to mitigate its reality?

Well he died in 1990, so probably not much he can do. And it's safe to say it's not reality since he has many grandchildren in their 30s. Quotes like this seem to be more of a warning then predictive, and Dubai seems to be trying to diversify. Meanwhile Eisenhower's warning on the military industrial complex has been ignored and seems to be coming true.

> to be coming true.

To be coming true? The production of military systems, like fighters and ships, has been spread across the states and counties for decades, to the point that Congress will stuff an unwanted system down the Pentagon's throat to ensure re-election in defense intense districts. And be up front about the reason why!

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#185

Post by newacct583 » Tue, Jul 21, 2020, 10:37 PM UTC

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #169

newacct583 wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mining trucks and industrial infrastructure don't really reflect the bulk of petroleum use. Something like 2/3 of the total US petroleum input goes to simple civil transportation alone. Heavy industry and core infrastructure are the last things that people interested in renewables will be fighting over. The low hanging fruit of personal vehicles and electricity generation is what's killing the middle east oil cartel.

Sure, my point is just that the developing world is going to use a lot of petroleum in order to develop. Mining was just an example of where it's used. No one commenting has refuted that, and the people talking about electric mining trucks don't know what they are talking about and have probably never been to a mine before.

> Sure, my point is just that the developing world is going to use a lot of petroleum in order to develop.

And mine was that it doesn't need to. The only reason it needs a ton of oil is if it wants to emulate the US obsession with private transportation, which even the US is getting away from. It's not like Civ 6 here: they don't need to invent the internal combustion engine for themselves.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#186

Post by cmrdporcupine » Wed, Jul 22, 2020, 12:15 AM UTC

duxup wrote: post #85

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To bankrupt and slow down other oil producing countries that have even higher costs. As an example, take a look at Alberta, Canada, with its giant oil sands projects -- on the world's largest deposit of crude oil on the planet -- basically unprofitable now.

I think that is true to an extent, as far as international politics goes. Saudi Arabia is happy to make that move to target say Iran, etc. But things like oil sands and etc won't go away. It's accessible and the boom and bust nature of oil is just part of the system. They don't really stop oil sands.. just pause them. Someone goes bankrupt today, someone else will sell that oil when the price goes back up. And if the…

What if you believe or know that the environmental regulatory environment for fossil fuel extraction is bound to change, or has to change? Say, due to climate change?

Wouldn't you want to at least temporarily stop your competitors from profiting from the last couple decades of massive unregulated oil sales, and at the same time try to dump as much of your product as you could?

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#187

Post by pandaman » Wed, Jul 22, 2020, 3:32 AM UTC

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #166

margalabargala wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The heavy trucks used in the mining industry are almost entirely electric. If a truck is going underground, much better for it to not be spitting fumes that will kill your workers, and if the mine is at the top of a hill, the regenerative braking from a loaded truck going downhill will charge the batteries so much that the trucks rarely, if ever, have to be manually charged. Some of the trucks in question: https://ww…

Those have diesel engines. You don't know what you're talking about. The electric drive is to make power transmission easier, and yes, to allow for regenerative breaking.

It allows regenerative braking in principle, I don't know if any mining truck actually has one. Imagine the size and weight of a battery to power a 200T truck (total weight up to 385 metric tons) for any significant time. These trucks use induction brakes, which do not give back any energy, for the same reason they use electric motors instead of a gearbox - a lone friction brake for such a heavy machine would be too heavy and wear out too quickly (they do have auxiliary friction breaks, though).

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#188

Post by duxup » Wed, Jul 22, 2020, 4:23 AM UTC

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #186

duxup wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that is true to an extent, as far as international politics goes. Saudi Arabia is happy to make that move to target say Iran, etc. But things like oil sands and etc won't go away. It's accessible and the boom and bust nature of oil is just part of the system. They don't really stop oil sands.. just pause them. Someone goes bankrupt today, someone else will sell that oil when the price goes back up. And if the…

What if you believe or know that the environmental regulatory environment for fossil fuel extraction is bound to change, or has to change? Say, due to climate change? Wouldn't you want to at least temporarily stop your competitors from profiting from the last couple decades of massive unregulated oil sales, and at the same time try to dump as much of your product as you could?

I'm not sure Saudi Arabia is willing to sit on theses low prices for decades.

Reg pressure on oil could hurt them too...

Generally speaking the oil available now will be in the future if prices rise again. The technology to access oil has made it easier to get to, not harder.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#189

Post by Gibbon1 » Wed, Jul 22, 2020, 5:16 AM UTC

newacct583 wrote: post #185

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, my point is just that the developing world is going to use a lot of petroleum in order to develop. Mining was just an example of where it's used. No one commenting has refuted that, and the people talking about electric mining trucks don't know what they are talking about and have probably never been to a mine before.

> Sure, my point is just that the developing world is going to use a lot of petroleum in order to develop. And mine was that it doesn't need to. The only reason it needs a ton of oil is if it wants to emulate the US obsession with private transportation, which even the US is getting away from. It's not like Civ 6 here: they don't need to invent the internal combustion engine for themselves.

My argument is oil dependence is a ball and chain on the aspirations of the developing world. The need of minor counties to buy oil in dollars chains them to the US and European dominated financial system with ruthlessly exploits them and savages countries that try to fight back. Once the leaders of those countries are confident they can do without constantly importing oil they're going to run for the exits as fast as they can.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#190

Post by pydry » Wed, Jul 22, 2020, 10:17 AM UTC

coliveira wrote: post #101

marcosdumay wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Who wants to build a factory in Saudi Arabia even if it weren't unstable? Everything just costs too much because of the oil - land, materials, labor. So, import all the inputs you can and sell the output on the local market where everything is expensive. Dutch disease is way more complicated than just "there's too much money coming from this source, the economy is fucked-up". I would really like to see any non-simp…

The real cause of Dutch disease is not economical, but political. Political forces formed from the exploration of oil (and other resources, like banana-producing land in central America) will not allow for the formation of a diversified industry where they will have less ability to control the host country. These political forces are a combination of both external (developed nations) and small minorities that benefit…

Dutch disease was named after the Netherlands where the phenomenon was first observed - with North Sea oil. It was a highly valued currency, not politics, that rendered Dutch exports noncompetitive and shrank foreign investment.