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TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

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Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#181

Escalation between the US and China is inevitable. China is fundamentally opposed to everything the US and Democracies around the world stand for politically. Likewise, the US and friends are fundamentally opposed to everything China stands for politically. There is no Universe in which two diametrically opposed juggernauts do not come into conflict. Conflict is simply inevitable when the stakes are this high and the…

Xi’s China is abosolutely authoritorian, but that’s not what this conflict is about. This is more like US vs Japan in the 80s, where US wants to secure its influence and power, by keeping others down if necessary.

Except that China is 7 times japan.

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#182
post #101
post #2

I always thought that enforcing IP rights overseas was a pipe dream. Amazing.

How is Huawei violating America's IP exactly? Huawei stole 5G from US?

This is one of the most famous accounts: https://www.secureworldexpo.com/industry-news/8-steps-huawei...

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#183
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's not about tanks or numbers its national resolve and there each side can vastly misread the other. Agreed, but to be perfectly honest, I would be 100% happy to see the US pull all manufacturing out of China and put it back on US soil. The US has gained a temporary price reduction in labor that is now evaporating, gained no access to the Chinese market or influenced China to open further, and has lost the actual…

And who in the US will do the work? It's not just the jobs that went overseas, it's also the factories, the molds, and the skills, on top of that we all apparently want cheap stuff.

Just because we elect morons, don't assume all of us are morons. Lots of people could do factory work for the right wages, and lots of capital is floating around that could build new factories. Sure, we're deficient in certain specific skills, but skills can be learned and processes can be designed around their lack.

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#184
post #9
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not about tanks or numbers its national resolve and there each side can vastly misread the other. Each side believes it has greater resolve and is in the right. There is no quantitative way to measure this. The only way to to find out is to fight. Just like two people who size each other up, one may be bigger or faster but the will to prevail and willingness to bare any sacrifice and tolerate pain in order to ac…

> It's not about tanks or numbers its national resolve and there each side can vastly misread the other. Agreed, but to be perfectly honest, I would be 100% happy to see the US pull all manufacturing out of China and put it back on US soil. The US has gained a temporary price reduction in labor that is now evaporating, gained no access to the Chinese market or influenced China to open further, and has lost the actual…

The US doesn't care about China being open. They care about maintaining domination.

The US has no issue replacing democratic governments with dictatorships as long as they keep their influence and power. If China was a democracy, we would see the exact same rhetoric.

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#185

Technically it should not be an issue since Taiwan does not exist on paper and therefore China's CCP should have no problem asserting full control over TSMC operations. At least if we believe the CCP's version of the world.

Taiwan is a region and a very important one, no one was denying that, even the Chinese government. The dispute was on what a country means and it has complicated historical reasons on both sides. Same thing goes for why Guam and California are not the same political entities among the US, or why Spain doesn't recognize Catalonia.

Don't be ignorant and try to judge on things you don't fully understand.

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The effect will be the exact opposite, it will make it harder and will inflict some pain on them in the short term , but in the longer term any internal resistance has just evaporated and they will double down on this.

More importantly this will also encourage non Chinese nations to assist in any move away from US power over the semiconductor industry. India has already started taking steps. It’s likely the Europeans will as well now. The US government is taking these actions with blinders on. They only seem capable of modeling effects 6 months into the future and only the direct impacts on China (and barely even that, considering…

If "Europe" stops sitting around with its dick in its hand and actually subsidizes/incentivizes development of a globally-competitive domestic semiconductor industry, I will be shocked. India, too, is hopelessly reliant on the US semiconductor technology ecosystem.

What is increasingly clear is that both the US and China see domestic leading-edge semiconductor production capacity as a core national security interest. It is not so easy to assist China's project; serious moves to help China establish independence in semiconductors will cause cascading changes in the relationship with the US. While they may be disquieted by recent US behavior, western European leaders can see perfectly well that China is not a viable strategic partner and that the risks and costs of being kicked out of the US security and trade umbrella (this stupid trade war with the EU is peanuts to the kind of coercive tariffs and sanctions looming in such a case) outweigh the benefits of helping China make better semiconductors.

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#187

To preface, firstly - I am a supporter of free global trade and greater collaboration between countries to maximize the benefit of each other. The problem starts when there is a massive asymmetry in the trade. China has completely blocked US services from Google to Uber, and gladly accepts manufacturing investment - Tesla Shanghai factory, Intel's Chengdu factory, etc. because the CCP knows that they will gain tremen…

China blocked American services in the mainland precisely to prevent intel gathering on the Chinese masses.

And it's ironic for you to say the CCP wants keys to iCloud, because your government literally forces American companies to hand over the keys[1].

[1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-apple-fbi-icloud-exclusiv...

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#188
post #55

What are the near term implications of this? I was under the impression that this was always considered a pretty extreme option. Between this and the plans for the TSMC fab in the USA I wonder what suddenly shifted in US - Taiwan relations. Does this mean that Huawei loses the 5G competition because they are not going to be able to get the chips they need fabricated? Is China going to try to split up Huawei into a bu…

I am sure 5G chips can be built with older processes. They might just need more cooling and be less efficient.

That makes Huawei's 5G chips much less commercially competitive, giving Qualcomm a leg up in the handset market and making it much harder for Huawei to win.

However, for base stations, which are the real prize, Huawei already has a ~1y stockpile of Xilinx FPGAs, so any effects on Huawei's 5G market position will take some time to manifest.

Re: TSMC halts new Huawei orders after US tightens restrictions

#189
China has already bought the second (Russia) and third world (not in terms of wealth, rather actual third world) with the cheap variants of original technologies. Intellectual property is meaningless in this arena, and so is reasoning. Moreover, America has stopped streaming the "American dream", stopped winning "friends and allies", and is flexing muscles on the rest of the world.

I thought this war of the giants will remain paused for the rest of the covid-19 situation, however, it seems unlikely before some major causality. And Huawei seems to be in the center of the stage.

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