Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The plans to reopen the economy are scary

vox.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

181–190 of 214 posts

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#181

Post by redis_mlc »

carapace wrote: post #34
redis_mlc wrote: post #7

I started studying the US news reports of Covid-19 related to ventilators weeks ago when I realized there were no interviews with survivors, and ignored the speculation around partial testing results and R0 calculations because of the lack of hard data, and exponential rate of infection making analysis moot. Essentially, ICU admission for ventilators, and subsequent deaths, are the most complete and factual data we h…

Who are you? Q: "What's the most important part of a message?" A: "The name of the messenger."

I just added my source links (search this page for "Source Links"). Please review them and let me know of any questions or comments.

I'd really appreciate the feedback to decide what my next step is after my initial 2-3 weeks of research and thought.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#182

Post by ethanwillis »

Melting_Harps wrote: post #146
ethanwillis wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the last point is rooted in some modern ideas about what it costs to develop and deliver an education. Our education system cost (At least in the States) is absurdly overpriced and most of that money is not going to the professors. You don't need to pay people to take biology courses. You need to pay people UBI so that they could choose to take biology courses. Then you only need a (relatively) modest amount…

> You don't need to pay people to take biology courses. You need to pay people UBI so that they could choose to take biology courses. Then you only need a (relatively) modest amount of money to design the course, pay the graders, and deliver the content. I agree with your sentiment, forcing people into Biology is entirely the wrong approach--I was and I detested my HS level classes, and even most of my lower division…

I think we're on the same page. Now I don't have the wet lab background (I come from comp sci and did a bioinformatics m.s.). But yea, if I had just a little money to be able to dedicate a consistent amount of time to developing courses I'd do it.

I've tried my hand at doing it completely free a few times, but when it doesn't pay the bills the effort quickly gets put on the backburner.

If you and/or those recent grads start putting something together feel free to reach out and I'd love to contribute. My github username is the same as my HN username and you can get everything else from there.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#183

Post by jeffrallen »

mariushn wrote: post #165
ddevault wrote: post #5

Oh my god, the system described by the CAP plan covered in this article cannot be allowed to come into being. Instant dystopian nightmare state. This kind of tool can't be un-made.

I proposed an app [1] owned by WHO to do the tracking, almost nobody cared. Now governments will handle it, as they want. [1] https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/proposal-way-reduce-coronavir...

The WHO is good at some important things, but not deploying apps to billions of citizens.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#184

Post by jeffrallen »

Mediterraneo10 wrote: post #28
jeffrallen wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does not have to be built that way: https://github.com/DP-3T/documents This is what we'll hopefully be using in Switzerland.

Unfortunately, the PEPP-PT approach will not protect privacy in many European countries. This is because an individual is linked to a phone number. Since you cannot purchase a SIM card in many countries without showing ID (and a copy of your ID is made and sent to the state authorities), the state is easily able to match phone numbers with people’s real identities. Consequently, the authorities will easily be able to…

I agree that PEPP-PT is not too clear on their commitment to protecting privacy. I disagree that anything about the DP-3T system divulges SUM numbers. Go read the 3 pager and see.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#185

Post by jeffrallen »

miscPerson wrote: post #11
ddevault wrote: post #5

Oh my god, the system described by the CAP plan covered in this article cannot be allowed to come into being. Instant dystopian nightmare state. This kind of tool can't be un-made.

Emergency powers to protect us after 9/11 are still in place — two decades later. Emergency powers to fund world wars are still in place — eight decades later. It never goes away.

The DP-3T system explicitly calls out the fact that it dismantles itself after the epidemic as a feature.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#186

Post by mnm1 »

Barrin92 wrote: post #72

> "The CAP and Harvard plans both foresee a digital pandemic surveillance state in which virtually every American downloads an app to their phone that geotracks their movements, so if they come into contact with anyone who later is found to have Covid-19, they can be alerted and a period of social quarantine can begin." If this refers to the bluetooth supported apps I've seen developed by several institutions, does t…

> Let's say two people walk past each other on the street or stand close in a shop, as far as we know the risk of transmission is non-existent or extremely low.

WTF? What we know is exactly the opposite.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#187

Post by carapace »

redis_mlc wrote: post #181
carapace wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who are you? Q: "What's the most important part of a message?" A: "The name of the messenger."

I just added my source links (search this page for "Source Links"). Please review them and let me know of any questions or comments. I'd really appreciate the feedback to decide what my next step is after my initial 2-3 weeks of research and thought.

Cheers!

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#188

Post by ztjio »

LyndsySimon wrote: post #152
ztjio wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Giving every American a token cash handout is something Republicans have done before, it's hardly unbelievable if you actually have historical context. And by far most of that bill is corporate handouts. And the oversight has been fired. Everything about this aligns exactly with what you'd expect politically. It's a debacle. Furthermore, while there has been a lot of shutdown, it's not equal across the board. Tons of…

> It's clearly a case of more right leaning areas taking less cautious measures in favor of money. While I see where you’re coming from with this statement, I’m not sure I agree. From where I stand - a town of 13k people surrounded by a large rural area - it makes sense that we’re taking less aggressive action because the virus is not yet endemic here. Given the growth of confirmed cases in my area (northern Arkansas…

Literally everyone in this scenario thinks this way at first because they can't comprehend exponential growth. Nobody can, there are actual studies that show nobody can understand it so it's not a slight.

The only way you can convince me based on evidence elsewhere that your scenario is going to be any better than anywhere else is if your leadership in your area is doing aggressive testing, contact tracing and targeted isolation protocols akin to South Korea.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#189

Post by redis_mlc »

alkonaut wrote: post #153
elephantscan wrote: post #135

When are we just going to admit that our choices are: 1) indefinite lockdown 2) everyone gets the virus Between a 0.5% chance of dying, and life imprisonment, I'd take my chances.

Your chance of getting a severe case of you are infected is 5-10% or something similar. That’s a case that you want to have a hospital bed for, maybe an ICU bed. If all beds are taken then many of those severe cases will kill people. Say mortality is 3% instead of 0.5% once hospital capacity runs out. Assume 60% need to get it before we have herd immunity. I don’t think 3% mortality without healthcare is pessimistic.…

The data on the Santa Clara (California) stats site shows that 10% of those tested are infected.

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-co...

What your comment is missing is that the mortality of ventilators is 66% - 90%. So they're not a good solution for most patients. ICU doctors have been recommending using non-intrusive methods like cannulas as long as possible before intubating. However, that causes aerosolization of corona, so quarantine buildings are needed.

Please see my links for more detailed info.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#190

Post by ztjio »

austingulati wrote: post #120
ztjio wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Giving every American a token cash handout is something Republicans have done before, it's hardly unbelievable if you actually have historical context. And by far most of that bill is corporate handouts. And the oversight has been fired. Everything about this aligns exactly with what you'd expect politically. It's a debacle. Furthermore, while there has been a lot of shutdown, it's not equal across the board. Tons of…

I have seen a few click-bait headlines stating that the "oversight was fired" but it is not exactly true. There is some politics going on about who is chair of the PRAC but the other ~20 members of the committee have not changed.

The procession of a dictator is more nuanced and complex than people realize. A totally typical tactic is to repeatedly fire anyone who will take up the role in a fashion that does not directly benefit said dictator. That anyone was fired from this duty without a clear explanation and justification is cause for alarm. It doesn't matter if there are 20 or 2000 more ready to step into that position. Dictator will keep firing until he sees a loyal drone in the slot.
Post reply on HN