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Was corporate profit growth a bubble inflated by "financial engineering"?

openpolitics.com

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Re: Was corporate profit growth a bubble inflated by "financial engineering"?

#181
post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"CEO pay is usually an insignificant fraction of a company's revenue" What is insignificant? For example, the CEO of Aetna walked away with 500million. That's money that should have gone to insured, injured and sick people. What risk did he take that exceeded the risks of the children we sent to Afghanistan and Iraq?

Well, according to [0], Aetna's revenue in Q3 2018 was $15.5 billion - so, extrapolating, their yearly revenue was something on the order of 60 billion dollars, of which that 500 million you mention is just 0.8%. Also, some of that $500M is in stock, not cash. -- https://www.modernhealthcare.com/article/20181030/NEWS/18103...

> that 500 million you mention is just 0.8%.

It's not about what percentage of their revenue it is, it's about how that money that should go to adding customer value, not making exceedingly rich people richer.

500 million dollars could change the lives of tens of thousands of people that Aetna calls customers... but instead it goes to ONE person.

It doesn't have to be that way.

Re: Was corporate profit growth a bubble inflated by "financial engineering"?

#182
post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not "unproductive" from the perspective of the economy, but it is "unproductive" (i.e. low-returning) from the perspective of shareholders. We would not expect to see share prices rising if corporate profits in aggregate are not rising (unless there is some financial engineering going on).

We would expect it under certain circumstances. One explanation could be falling interest rates. Lower rates on bonds incentivize investors to take on more risk (moving more money into equities) in order to still meet their return targets.

This is a good point. I agree.

Re: Was corporate profit growth a bubble inflated by "financial engineering"?

#183
post #73

It's certainly more nuanced than that. However, it does point out the fact that corporations focus too much on shareholder value as opposed to just making a good business system...except for the major players that is. These the so called "too big to fail" types of companies which borderline monopolize market sectors like Amazon and Walmart. But they don't care during recessions because they're fine. They essentially…

> These the so called "too big to fail" types of companies > which borderline monopolize market sectors like Amazon and Walmart. It's somewhat interesting that when coming up with a list of two 'monopolist' companies, you came up with two companies that compete directly.

They monopolize supply chains. Not a specific market. Walmart has a reputation for exploiting companies to solely work for them because the money is too good. Then they force them to make it at insignificant margins until they can't anymore. Amazon as well.

Re: Was corporate profit growth a bubble inflated by "financial engineering"?

#184
post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"CEO pay is usually an insignificant fraction of a company's revenue" What is insignificant? For example, the CEO of Aetna walked away with 500million. That's money that should have gone to insured, injured and sick people. What risk did he take that exceeded the risks of the children we sent to Afghanistan and Iraq?

Well, according to [0], Aetna's revenue in Q3 2018 was $15.5 billion - so, extrapolating, their yearly revenue was something on the order of 60 billion dollars, of which that 500 million you mention is just 0.8%. Also, some of that $500M is in stock, not cash. -- https://www.modernhealthcare.com/article/20181030/NEWS/18103...

It also says that the net income is 1 billion though, and 500 million is half of that. High revenue doesn't always mean that the company is generating that much value. Just look at Uber.

Re: Was corporate profit growth a bubble inflated by "financial engineering"?

#185
post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They could price their products so they don't make any "extra" money each year Isn't that precisely what you get from competitive pressure in a free market? Things end up priced barely above production costs. > I think we'd live in a better world if a company like Apple didn't exist to make ever increasing profits, but existed just to create the products they create. That would be a nicer world to live, true. Unfor…

> 't that precisely what you get from competitive pressure in a free market? Things end up priced barely above production costs. Evidently no. Companies are making hundreds of millions in profit every ear, they're paying their CEOs tens of millions as a "bonus". They're they're making a lot, LOT more than just "barely above production costs"

I really dislike seeing comments like this on HN, just utter lack of foresight into just the basics of economics or even just commenting. What "companies" are you talking about? What does CEO pay have to do with the subject at hand?

Re: Was corporate profit growth a bubble inflated by "financial engineering"?

#186

For a more balanced view, you can turn to JP Morgan's Guide to the Markets. It's a reliable summary of actual data so you can draw your own conclusions. https://am.jpmorgan.com/blob-gim/1383407651970/83456/MI-GTM_...

This is an excellent deck. Thank you for sharing it!

Re: Was corporate profit growth a bubble inflated by "financial engineering"?

#187
post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If, over the long term, CAPEX spendings do not produce profits, it means that the purchased assets did not produce enough payoff to compensate for their depreciation charges. You could argue with the accounting depreciation rules (i.e. how much needs to be written off per year, i.e. you think the asset is longer lived than the accounting rules say), but the general idea stands - it is a sign of bad capital allocation…

If the profits from the CAPEX just get plowed into more CAPEX, though, you could end up looking like you don't have profits for decades, and it isn't necessarily a problem as long as you're growing. Edit: What I'm saying is that profit is a lagging indicator of CAPEX, and your lack of profit now could be the result of bad CAPEX 5 years ago, or good CAPEX 5 years ago, plus aggressive new CAPEX now.

I think you don't know what "profits" are, i.e. don't know accounting.

CAPEX is written down via depreciation charges over many years. I.e. if you buy something for $1M, and it has an accounting life of 10 years, you book $100k losses per year.

What you're thinking about is called "cash flow", not "profits".

Re: Was corporate profit growth a bubble inflated by "financial engineering"?

#188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So people didn't buy things before Amazon?

Of course they did—the same way they bought things at the local mom & pop stores before Walmart came in, undercut them, and drove them all out of business. Companies like Amazon and Walmart massively distort the market, and do so quite deliberately. It's hopelessly naïve to think that if they vanished tomorrow, everyone would be able to just shrug and switch their purchasing to a drop-in replacement. That's only poss…

Depends where you live. In Cleveland, there's still plenty of small shops I go to all the time. I also order from Amazon and shop at Walmart.

Re: Was corporate profit growth a bubble inflated by "financial engineering"?

#189
post #185
post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 't that precisely what you get from competitive pressure in a free market? Things end up priced barely above production costs. Evidently no. Companies are making hundreds of millions in profit every ear, they're paying their CEOs tens of millions as a "bonus". They're they're making a lot, LOT more than just "barely above production costs"

I really dislike seeing comments like this on HN, just utter lack of foresight into just the basics of economics or even just commenting. What "companies" are you talking about? What does CEO pay have to do with the subject at hand?

I'm genuinely asking questions about why the economy and setup is the way it is, and why can't we change it to something better.

Everything can be improved, and we should strive to improve everything. I'm very aware of companies that operate very well without making a profit. They add a lot of value to society, the employees get paid and they're even expanding (MEC in Canada). But no profit. Nobody who doesn't work there gets richer. So why don't Apple work that way. Why doesn't Comcast work that way.

CEO pay represents a huge surplus of money (profit) that wasn't needed. The products and services offered by the company could have just been discounted that much, or the employees could all have been paid more, not just one person.

Re: Was corporate profit growth a bubble inflated by "financial engineering"?

#190

For a more balanced view, you can turn to JP Morgan's Guide to the Markets. It's a reliable summary of actual data so you can draw your own conclusions. https://am.jpmorgan.com/blob-gim/1383407651970/83456/MI-GTM_...

One of my main points is that you need to look beyond earnings per share to see the bigger trend.

What slide/s would you use from the JP Morgan Guide that is better than the St. Louis Fed chart I featured?

  * https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=qx3r
The Chart on Page 7 looks fantastic but it is earnings per share, not total profits before taxes.

The question I would ask is why the stock market graph looks so different than the St. Louis "Corporate profits before tax" graph?

My hypothesis is that many of these companies borrowed a lot of money in the bond market to buy back their shares and thereby juice their earnings per share.

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