Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

arstechnica.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

181–190 of 351 posts

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#181

Post by cstross »

This is a spectacular gamble, however Musk has a track record and I think Superheavy/Starship will pay off with unpredictable dividends.

But the elephant in the room that Musk appears to be ignoring is the life sciences side of things. Only 12 humans have sortied outside the Van Allen belts (which protect us from the deep space radiation environment). Nobody has spent more than 18 consecutive months in space or reduced gravity, and we know there are biological changes that affect astronauts. The same goes triple for the plants and bacteria and fungi (never mind animals) we depend on for agriculture, and a closed-loop agricultural system and air plant is implicit in Musk's goal of a self-sufficient colony on Mars. We haven't even repeated the (failed) Biosphere 2 experiment.

We need the giant payload capacity before we can test the life sciences problems in a realistic manner (small and ferociously expensive lab experiments on the ISS are useful but fail Musk's iteration test because the lead time for running one is measured in years if not decades).

So we won't know if a Mars colony is even possible until some time after Musk builds the ships to put one there.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#182

Post by nixpulvis »

aperrien wrote: post #178
nixpulvis wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's quite inspiring to see a real goal and drive towards it. I'm throughly uninspired... As a friend of mine once said: "progress when you're going the wrong direction, is turning around". The idea that we'll settle Mars while the Earth burns in borderline sinister. It reminds me of the elite outpost from Kingsman (the movie). We have a planet that is in dire need of this kind of motivated action, and yet Elon wou…

Instead of being fatalistic and bemoaning the problem, you'll find yourself in a better mental space if you just apply yourself to solving it. Yes, you will only start with small steps, and yes, that will be a great risk, but in the end it the only chance we have of making things work.

I do not follow your argument, and I don't appreciate your appeal to my mental state.

I'm making a dramatic argument against large scale efforts to inhabit other planets, while ours is in a dire state.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#183

Post by dwaltrip »

nixpulvis wrote: post #145
throwaway13337 wrote: post #23

It's quite inspiring to see a real goal and drive towards it. Purpose is so hard to come by now because we all don't know what we want. When we do know, we're constantly unsure about it. Such a clear goal makes it easy to have greater purpose that you don't second guess. This isn't a scheme to get rich, a zero sum political movement, or a narcissistic artistic endeavor. It's pretty unique there. There's that whole da…

> It's quite inspiring to see a real goal and drive towards it. I'm throughly uninspired... As a friend of mine once said: "progress when you're going the wrong direction, is turning around". The idea that we'll settle Mars while the Earth burns in borderline sinister. It reminds me of the elite outpost from Kingsman (the movie). We have a planet that is in dire need of this kind of motivated action, and yet Elon wou…

The technology developed for Mars will improve life on Earth, in ways we can't even imagine.

Human effort isn't completely fungible. There is no guarantee that all of the people working incredibly hard at SpaceX would switch to work on whatever problem you want them to.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#184

Post by s_y_n_t_a_x »

immmmmm wrote: post #175

I don’t get the point 1) we are plain in the middle of a mass extinction event, expected to get much worst in a decade or two. Wouldn’t it be good to solve that first? 2) we need a 4th industrial revolution to survive global warming as a civilization. Wouldn’t be better to fix that first? (No, electric cars won’t suffice) 3) is it really necessary to spoil astronomy/night sky to finance one’s dream? (No, vantablack w…

1) we are plain in the middle of a mass extinction event, expected to get much worst in a decade or two. Wouldn’t it be good to solve that first?

I don't see why we can't do both. Maybe if you come up with an actionable plan you can start your own company like Elon and tackle that problem.

2) we need a 4th industrial revolution to survive global warming as a civilization. Wouldn’t be better to fix that first? (No, electric cars won’t suffice)

No electric cars won't suffice, but they are a start. As is an increase in nuclear, and renewables in areas it makes sense. Again I don't see how this detracts, especially looking at Elon's other ventures. Maybe you can create a company that tackles the concrete problem, that's a big one.

3) is it really necessary to spoil astronomy/night sky to finance one’s dream? (No, vantablack won’t solve the issue)

That's subjective and you don't know if it can be solved or not, seems they are working on it. Why do you think a non-reflective coating won't work?

4) our technology presently rely on mining 100+ elements. Does anyone here believe one can mine all of those on an a planet that misses an atmosphere? Using Earth ressources for a “colony” seems a dubious idea.

We don't have to mine all of them at first. Look where we started here on Earth, from scratch.

5) has anyone an idea of the CO2 equivalent cost of bringing one person to mars?

I'm sure it's negligible relatively. Was that rhetorical or do you have a number?

6) there is growing evidence that there is life in the Martian underground. Should we take the risk of destroying another biosphere?

Are you talking about the ice found? The martian biosphere is already destroyed, terraforming it would bring life to the surface and if there is life it's underground and must be pretty hardy.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#185

Post by giantrobot »

koboll wrote: post #117
dangus wrote: post #107

What is the benefit of settling on Mars? Until we explain that in some kind of sane way that doesn’t just involve the earth being a crutch for raw materials, it all seems rather stupid to me. Settling an earth-like planet? Sure! Seems logical. Mars? Not really.

Ability to survive nuclear war. He doesn't just want to settle, he wants to settle with a self-sustaining colony. It's a contingency plan. We've almost plunged the world into nuclear holocaust a couple times before. India and Pakistan are at each other's throats, and rising ethnonationalist populism and climate change are threatening to strain these tensions further. This is a real risk.

I'd buy into Musk's Mars bullshit if he built a sealed self-contained colony in New Mexico. We have experience with two long term space habitats, Mir and the ISS. Despite all of the engineering know how that built both shit breaks on them all the time and needs to be repaired. They also need regular resupply because they're nowhere near self sufficient. They also need a Soyuz capsule docked at all times in case they need to evacuate.

The Starship is an iterative design with seventy years of engineering knowledge behind it. Keeping humans alive outside the Van Allen belts for a long duration and then on a completely inhospitable planet has very little engineering knowledge behind it.

Also to suggest a Mars colony is a contingency plan is ludicrous. In order for a Mars colony to be a human civilization contingency plan it would not only need to be self sustaining but self perpetuating. Otherwise a life ending event on Earth would just give the Mars colonists a few months to come to terms with their mortality. Then no kore humans.

There is nowhere in the solar system that can support humans in the way Earth can. In fact everywhere else is so hostile we need to take significant amounts of Earth with us just to not die immediately.

If you want to live in underground colonies have the Boring company build you tunnels here on Earth. At least when you need parts for the GECK you can go above ground with just a gas mask and rugged clothes instead of a bulky space suit.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#186

Post by ben_w »

Miraste wrote: post #106
Udo wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm happy Musk _is_ obsessed. I can definitely empathize with that, I'm happy with what's being achieved as well. Seing how SpaceX and Tesla are routinely achieving their goals and arguably change the world, I often can't get over the fact that the output of our civilization seems to hinge on the iron will of a few billionaires. Elon Musk (and SpaceX as his tool) is just an extremely illustrative example of this, b…

> I wish there was a Musk-like figure focused on transhumanism There is, his name is Elon Musk. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink Unfortunately, the science and technology involved is nowhere near ready for a Starship-style push to be feasible. That's not even mentioning the legal environment.

Likewise the social and economic environment.

Let’s hypothesise sufficient brain scans. I think even that is a way off yet?

Is a backup of your mind protected by the right to avoid self-incrimination? What about the minds of your pets?

Does a backup need to be punished (e.g. prison) if the person it is made from is punished? What if the offence occurred after the backup was made?

If the mind state is running rather than offline cold-storage, how many votes do all the copies get? What if they’re allowed to diverge?

If you memorise something and then get backed up, is that copyright infringement?

If a mind can run on silicon for less than the cost of food to keep a human healthy, can anyone other than the foremost mind in their respective field ever be employed?

If someone is backed up then the original is killed by someone who knows they were backed up, is that murder or the equivalent of a serious assault that causes a small duration of amnesia?

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#187

Post by m4rtink »

nixpulvis wrote: post #167
anthonypasq wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

sigh... there are plenty of reasons humanity should be multi-planetary other than escaping climate change.

Feel free to elaborate. I suspect any reasons you'll come up with are all still less urgent than the needs of our Earth. I've heard the argument about learning to control the climate through taraforming (or whatever you want to call it), but I'm completely unconvinced that is an efficient method. I'd be willing to be convinced otherwise, but I'm very skeptical.

Once even a minuscule fraction of the resources of the Solar System become available you can solve all terrestrial problems once and for all.

Space & Solar System is big and has a lot of resources, much much more than what is available in on a terrestrial planet.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#188

Post by jcadam »

nixpulvis wrote: post #145
throwaway13337 wrote: post #23

It's quite inspiring to see a real goal and drive towards it. Purpose is so hard to come by now because we all don't know what we want. When we do know, we're constantly unsure about it. Such a clear goal makes it easy to have greater purpose that you don't second guess. This isn't a scheme to get rich, a zero sum political movement, or a narcissistic artistic endeavor. It's pretty unique there. There's that whole da…

> It's quite inspiring to see a real goal and drive towards it. I'm throughly uninspired... As a friend of mine once said: "progress when you're going the wrong direction, is turning around". The idea that we'll settle Mars while the Earth burns in borderline sinister. It reminds me of the elite outpost from Kingsman (the movie). We have a planet that is in dire need of this kind of motivated action, and yet Elon wou…

> We have a planet that is in dire need of this kind of motivated action, and yet Elon would rather be distracted by this dream.

What? You see a motivated person with the resources and drive to pursue his dream and you're upset that he's not putting his vision aside to pursue what you think is important? Musk doesn't owe you anything.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#189

Post by soperj »

missosoup wrote: post #136
CydeWeys wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really helping them that they have some of the most motivated employees on Earth. Their people absolutely believe in this vision of colonizing Mars just as much as Elon Musk does. (Hell, I do too, I just don't work there.) Meanwhile I'm working at an advertising company.

> Meanwhile I'm working at an advertising company. That's a funny way to spell Google.

Google is a funny way to spell 10^100

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#190

Post by skuthus »

PedroBatista wrote: post #149
widowlark wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am curious what your complaint will be when they are actually building a starship a week

And why would they do that? Please, I beg you to explain it to me.

IIRC, it's to create a commercial launch platform and also passenger rockets for quick point-to-point travel. Basically a really big and fast 747
Post reply on HN