Live data from Hacker News

Browser-based climate change simulation

en-roads.climateinteractive.org

181–190 of 276 posts

Re: Browser-based climate change simulation

#181
post #140
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nuclear energy and trains are possible, even if they require electrifying the railroads. Note: this is not a great idea; trains release less than a third as much co2 as a truck and electrifying cross country rail would be very expensive. You need extremely high voltage for long distance transmission, which is incompatible with pantographs (the metal things that power trains/buses from overhead). You'd essentially n…

> IMO that is a profoundly unhelpful way of looking at it. Agreed. > The money spent on the Iraq war [& Afghanistan, etc.] would be enough to buy enough batteries to store ALL US ELECTRICITY for full two days. Or, a base-version Tesla Model 3 for every driving-age resident of the US. Given that they're manufactured in the US, you'd be reducing emissions and hiring however many tens? (hundreds?) of thousands of people…

Fighting environmentalv issues with extra consumption may not be a good idea. Manufacturing a vehicle pollutes a lot. Up to 50% of the enviromental costs of a vehicle seem to happen at manufacturing time.

https://archive.attn.com/stories/13637/hidden-environmental-...

Re: Browser-based climate change simulation

#182
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> FWIW, I also happen to harbor this suspicion. How might one actually know whether there is an element of truth to it? It's probably good to have some baseline level of cynicism, since individual people do often act in egotistical ways. However, what you're proposing seems to imply that either (1) there is a vast conspiracy of climate scientists, who are engaging in that conspiracy for ultimately very little gain or…

> However, what you're proposing seems to imply that either (1) there is a vast conspiracy of climate scientists, who are engaging in that conspiracy for ultimately very little gain or (2) climate scientists are incredibly stupid, and keep repeating incorrect things as fact to each other while being blind to other evidence. It may seem this way to you, but you have formed an incorrect conclusion (a behavior which I a…

You are saying a lot of different, seemingly subtle things, while heavily hedging everything, which makes it super hard to have a meaningful discussion. I am honestly not entirely sure what you are trying to say with things like

> Agreed, but this does not logically preclude my concerns that it is possible that [...]

I mean, if you're talking philosophy here, I obviously agree that this is a logical possibility, but how does that move the conversation forward? What we need to see is evidence one way or the other.

I would suggest to focus on specific points of contention and cite sources. This forces everyone in the discussion to actually go researching those sources in the first place, which should improve the level of dialog.

Re: Browser-based climate change simulation

#183
post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> FWIW, I also happen to harbor this suspicion. How might one actually know whether there is an element of truth to it? I do not harbor this same suspicion, however, I'm determined to learn whatever is necessary to understand it. Not because I can argue a point to completion for someone who doesn't share epistemological solidarity with me, but because it might allow me to aid in whatever needs posterity has in solvin…

Disclaimer: the style in which I write this reply is highly likely to be considered highly antagonistic, provocative, and non-constructive. Indeed, it may very well be this in many ways. But please consider the possibility that the actual underlying intent is other than what you might presume it to be...that there may be a method to my madness. > I do not harbor this same suspicion, however, I'm determined to learn w…

> Is it possible that your mind has formed a highly detailed internal model of who I am and what I'm all about, based not entirely on factual observations, but rather based on subconscious heuristic judgements?

This appears to be the only important statement in everything that you wrote requiring some kind of response. I can say, quite certainly, that this is not the case, but that it is slowly happening, based on other responses I'm seeing.

You made a statement about the following:

> > I have a bunch of coworkers that think scientists are making up this data and skewing results because their jobs depend on it and they want to continue to get funding.

> FWIW, I also happen to harbor this suspicion. How might one actually know whether there is an element of truth to it?

This is, quite literally, creating a conspiracy from thin air without proof. Climate science is so unnecessarily controversial at this point, that if any evidence existed that scientists were lying to make more money, business leaders would be touting it at every turn. However, there is plenty of evidence that scientists that deny climate change are in it for the money:

https://www.climaterealityproject.org/blog/climate-denial-ma...

> As a Washington Post article explains, “in the 1990s, oil companies, fossil fuel industry trade groups and their respective PR firms began positioning contrarian scientists such as Willie Soon, William Happer and David Legates as experts whose opinions on climate change should be considered equal and opposite to that of climate scientists.”

> The contrarian voice of these funded-skeptics hides the fact that basically the entire scientific community agrees the crisis is real and caused by humans, promoting the myth of disagreement.

Do you hold the same opinion of scientists that deny climate change? Offered evidence, will you change that opinion? This article might not be definitive proof, but proof of these actions by the fossil fuel industry is widely available. With this information, my theory of epistemology can treat scientists who suggest that Climate Change is happening and human caused is fact, and that those that deny it are most likely disingenuous. If you don't agree, then it is likely that we cannot share epistimological solidarity. It's not an emotional statement, just a statement of fact. You might suggest that I am reaching my conclusion illogically. It might even be true. It doesn't change the fact that our epistemologies differ.

IOW, I responded primarily to a statement that is a widespread conspiracy theory, and therefore propaganda, by calling it what it was, not by making assumptions about who you are, and how you think. I simply made a reply based on what you wrote. I, on the other hand, can present a real conspiracy (not propaganda) by pointing out how various industries have disingenuously used media (and thus human emotion and failing human intuition) to argue against human caused climate change. That actually exists, and is a statement of fact, unless you differ from me in epistemology.

Further, you reference the book "Thinking Fast and Slow", while defending a statement of intuition:

> I also happen to harbor this suspicion

In response, I gave you the ultimate 'slow thinking' path that I follow myself: education. Until I have that education, then I must fall back on the expertise of others.

Further, I'm extremely aware of the fact that we need the public to buy in, and that we need political will to deal with Climate Change. Extremely, frustratingly, aware.

Re: Browser-based climate change simulation

#184
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This sounds like you're saying that 50 years ago there was a single climate model, upon which significant consensus among scientists had been reached, that predicted a 1C temperature rise. I've read quite a few articles and discussions on this topic but have never heard this before. Am I misunderstanding you? If not, do you have a link that discusses this?

"Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections" https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019... "We found that climate models – even those published back in the 1970s – did remarkably well, with 14 out of the 17 projections statistically indistinguishable from what actually occurred."

Yes, I read that report and participated in the subsequent discussion [0] where I raised a number of concerns with the study, but wasn't able to find anyone who would seriously and objectively address them.

Frustrated by the unwillingness of anyone to engage in rigorous discussion in that thread, I also contacted the authors to see if they were willing to address some of the concerns. Unfortunately, I did not hear back.

I must confess, this strange combination of group declaration that "the science is in", combined with complete refusal to discuss "the science", leaves me feeling a bit suspicious about the degree to which anyone has actually read the science, or is thinking critically on this matter.

If you could address some of the concerns I raised in [0], I would be delighted.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21708936

Re: Browser-based climate change simulation

#185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not hypothesizing anything, solar energy is the primary input to the system by nature of the fact that removing the sun would leave Earth a lifeless rock. I do find all of the catastrophising of nature very fascinating. The switcheroo from "global warming" to "climate change" was pretty slick. The attempt to step the message up to "climate crisis" is going to be barrels of fun. And, yes, I do feel for those peopl…

Solar energy is the primary input to the system, but it isn't driving warming. There is no evidence that it is. Literally everything else you said here is just politics.

There's literally evidence of the end of the last ice age, and how we've been warming ever since. To say there's no evidence that the sun is causing warming is just disconnected with reality.

Re: Browser-based climate change simulation

#186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Solar energy is the primary input to the system, but it isn't driving warming. There is no evidence that it is. Literally everything else you said here is just politics.

> isn't driving warming I never said anything about warming, that’s your line. I said, "I think these primary inputs to the system not staying constant would make it impossible to model climate such that the model could be an accurate predictive tool." Also, we’ve long moved onto “Climate Change”, even though all the models still predict warming. > Solar energy is the primary input to the system, but it isn't driving…

I didn't say that it can't correlate. It just doesn't right now and hasn't correlated with global temps for a long time. Solar irradience has been declining for 40+ years while temps have jumped to levels not seen in 130,000 years

Beyond that the warming we have is characteristic of greenhouse gas driven warming and not solar forcing.

Nighttime temps are going up faster than daytime temps. The opposite of what solar forcing would do.

The troposphere is warming rapidly while the upper reaches of the atmosphere like the stratosphere are cooling. Because greenhouse gasses are trapping heat at lower levels. Solar forcing would cause all levels of the atmosphere to warm. Not just the troposphere.

Re: Browser-based climate change simulation

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Solar energy is the primary input to the system, but it isn't driving warming. There is no evidence that it is. Literally everything else you said here is just politics.

There's literally evidence of the end of the last ice age, and how we've been warming ever since. To say there's no evidence that the sun is causing warming is just disconnected with reality.

There is actually multiple lines of evidence that the sun is not causing the global warming the Earth is experiencing.

Direct observation of declining solar irradience.

Night time temps warming faster than daytime temps.

Troposphere warming rapidly as the stratosphere cools.

None of these are consistent with solar forced warming. All are consistent with greenhouse gas forced warming.

Re: Browser-based climate change simulation

#188
post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At that point you're questioning pretty basic physics. What part of the influence of CO2 concentration on the infrared transmittance of the atmosphere are you questioning [0]? Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect#Mechanism

The "basic physics" contradicts the data. Your error is approaching this enormously complex question with the assumption that climate science is unquestionably correct. This lag is a glaring discrepancy that begs resolution. No, it doesn't mean climate science is totally wrong, but this attitude of unquestionability is absolutely pervasive in both society at large and academia, and gives deniers a justifiable reason…

It is of course totally possible and consistent with mainstream climate science for CO2 levels to trail temperature under some conditions, for example when the temperature is driven by Milankovich cycles. [0]

I was attacking the implied invalid conclusion that rising CO2 levels would therefore not drive temperature.

But, to address the point in more detail, look at the data in [1]. CO2 typically does not lag temperature. If you cherry-pick points in time at the beginning of a Milankovich-induced temperature increase it may, and this is adequately explained by outgassing of CO2 from the oceans, driven by the sun. [2]

> [...] this attitude of unquestionability is absolutely pervasive in both society at large and academia, and gives deniers a justifiable reason for suspicion.

I try to find citations for what I write here, and address specific points, both to teach myself the science and to keep the discussion honest. If everybody here did this there would certainly be no "attitude of unquestionability".

I agree that it can probably seem that way on cursory look. I personally find it hard to always keep cool when faced with a barrage of pseudo-scientific points that don't hold up to scrutiny. More importantly, I find the implicit arrogance really hard to stomach, i.e. thinking that a huge field of scientists is too stupid to understand some "obvious fault" that someone posted on their blog. Maybe that makes me unfair to some participants who are just trying to understand the issue better and / or have an honest discussion. I'm sorry if that was the case.

[0] Lorius et al. 1990, https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/lo03000u.html

[1] Petit et al., 1999, Fig. 3, available from https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7rx4413n

[2] https://skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature-intermedia...

Re: Browser-based climate change simulation

#189
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Milankovitch cycles have crested since that warming. Without the CO2 we would be cooling. This is not a fact, this is a theory. This is common in 'science' that scientists believing something 'should be happening' and then attempt to pencil in details after-the-fact to explain something that doesn't fit their preconceived model. > Citation needed. From [1]: > Since 1750, the average amount of energy coming from…

> Now, you probably won't like the source of that information, and I'm sure it's all been 'debunked,' but the other side can say the exact same thing. I don't like that source of information because it redirected to an ad that tried to make me download malware and filled my history with junk. Couldn't even read it, literally, because they were too eager to exploit me. Follow the money, indeed.

Don't you use adblock? You could say the same about NYT & WaPo too.

Re: Browser-based climate change simulation

#190
post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> IMO that is a profoundly unhelpful way of looking at it. Agreed. > The money spent on the Iraq war [& Afghanistan, etc.] would be enough to buy enough batteries to store ALL US ELECTRICITY for full two days. Or, a base-version Tesla Model 3 for every driving-age resident of the US. Given that they're manufactured in the US, you'd be reducing emissions and hiring however many tens? (hundreds?) of thousands of people…

Fighting environmentalv issues with extra consumption may not be a good idea. Manufacturing a vehicle pollutes a lot. Up to 50% of the enviromental costs of a vehicle seem to happen at manufacturing time. https://archive.attn.com/stories/13637/hidden-environmental-...

> Fighting environmental issues

I’m not talking about fighting “environmental issues” — I’m explicitly talking about a) global climate change, which has little to do with ~75% of the environmental impacts of an electric vehicle, and b) not spending $trillions fighting wars due to Western society’s unslakable thirst for oil. [1]

Let’s not goalpost this — mining & refining metals (etc.) is dirty business, and we should clean it up, but to be clear: it has a very limited impact on climate change.

> extra consumption

Extra consumption? I proposed taking the trillions of dollars spent on military equipment, plus fuel for planes, aircraft carriers, and other ships, tanks, etc., not to mention the deaths of thousands of people — war is “consumption” to an absurd degree — and replacing all that with domestic EVs.

Don’t tell me that’s “extra consumption”. If anything it’s a dramatic reduction in consumption.

[1] Whether you believe the war in Iraq was fought for oil or not, oil is a causative factor: without the presence of oil in the Middle East, and the riches its trade brings to the states in the area, it’s unlikely we’d be fighting there.

Post reply on HN