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Dog-walking startup Wag raised $300M, then things got messy

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Re: Dog-walking startup Wag raised $300M, then things got messy

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right - there are incredible cancer immunotherapy and other biotech startups that are on the cusp of HUGE things. Softbank is clearly at a point where it has more capital than sense.

I'm pretty sure $50Bn could get us Fusion. Instead it got us slightly better taxis. We've only invested $1Bn in fusion (according to this article: https://www.greenbiz.com/article/fission-fusion-capital-flow... ). Physicists have been saying "we're close" for like 70 years. It took the Manhattan project the equivalent of $23Bn. If we had the same type of investment, we could have clean and (almost) free energy foreve…

> I'm pretty sure $50Bn could get us Fusion. Instead it got us slightly better taxis.

It's not construction work, you can't just hire more people to speed up research. When you have the top 50 or so scientists in the field, you just need to wait for results.

Re: Dog-walking startup Wag raised $300M, then things got messy

#182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s another thing I never got about Saudi’s investments. To me the obvious strategy with all the money would have been to not invest in empty skyscrapers or foreign investments, but pick two or three areas in which you massively bolster research and investment in an area like solar energy. Investment would be local and you try to attract all to talent in the field for both fundamental research as well as to fund c…

Norway did the same thing, it has worked very well for their economy so far.

Norway's sovereign wealth fund is vastly larger than the Saudi Arabian one, SA don't have much room to maneuver if the Aramco ipo doesn't work and these investments fail

Re: Dog-walking startup Wag raised $300M, then things got messy

#183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being pretty negative on those companies. 1) Uber strategically is looking pretty good. They are the market leader in most countries and their Uber Eats business is turning out to be quite lucrative. 2) Self driving cars is a long term project so of course Cruise isn't going to have anything released just yet. 3) Boston Dynamics just launched their latest robot and has already seen pretty good adoption amongst enterp…

You effectively summarized all my points towards "Uber is fine," "Boston Dynamics is fine," and "self-driving cars are fine." Uber is hemorrhaging money and are still competing against Lyft. What is their path towards profitability other than raising prices and losing customers? How do they become anything other than a glorified taxi company? Even if you disagree with me, you can't deny that the stock is trending dow…

> How do they become anything other than a glorified taxi company?

Just curious, what's wrong with that? A global taxi dispatching service that's always available, always (debatably) efficiently routing drivers to passengers sounds like a game-winning plan. Regular taxi dispatching services weren't doing these things well, on top of just sucking since they had no real competition for so long.

Re: Dog-walking startup Wag raised $300M, then things got messy

#184

What I don't get about the Vision Fund is how so many of its investments lack (pun intended) vision. Other than the ARM, Nvidia, and a few billion in biotech (about $3 billion[1]) investments, so much of the fund has gone into pretty "obvious" traditional startups. If I had a $100 billion fund, I wouldn't be swinging for these singles and doubles (which Uber and WeWork were by the time Softbank got involved, although…

The Vision fund was never really about funding breakthrough technology but instead moving the Saudi's economy away from a dependence on oil.

That aside, when you have $100B investing it is actually quite challenging. Take Stripe, for example, a fantastic private company that is valued at over $33B, but it has raised drastically less money than Uber or WeWork.

In order to deploy $100B it isn't enough to make $300MM bets because it would require 333 such investments. Just imagine. You would need 330 companies the size of Stripe and lead a late stage growth round to deploy that amount of capital.

Now Stripe has raised less money because they are more capital efficient and aren't burning cash like Uber or WeWork.

With Uber, at least there was a game plan because it was a tech company. Now it isn't important to debate how much of a "tech" company Uber is, simply think of tech as leverage. Which is the basic idea of tech companies, meaning that you write code once and then you can infinitely replicate at a near zero cost. While building something physical, your cost doesn't decrease towards this zero amount.

People also thought that DST was crazy when they invested at Facebook at a $10B valuation, but that has worked out well for them.

So regardless, Uber was a good investment and worth the risk, and still we have to wait and see where Uber is trading in 2-3 years time.

The real problem for the Vision fund is that to deploy this capital they necessarily need money losing businesses. These companies need funds to grow, so it allows them to absorb more capital which makes deploying $100B a lot easier.

Now Uber has leverage because of it's network. If you open your iPhone and you don't have an Uber waiting for you then you will stop using it. So actually there is real value in the network there.

For WeWork there is no "tech" and there is no leverage. Certainly the tech side is obvious, just look at the employee head count and the leverage side is also non-existent. There being more than 10 WeWorks in the same city for me doesn't actually make my experience of WeWork any better or worse. Which has been proven by how many coworking startups have sprung up to compete with them and are having no issues filling their office space.

So here you have a large money losing business with no leverage and as a result giving it a tech multiple was blindingly obvious to many people that it was a bad idea.

With that the Vision fund is running into real hot water. They need large growing companies in order to deploy their investment capital, but investing in money losing businesses is a risky, especially when the largest money losing businesses don't have real leverage and aren't real tech companies.

This just all unraveled a bit quicker than Softbank would have liked, but it isn't at all surprising.

To see other investments of theirs falter isn't surprising either. Because they will all follow the money losing model in order to absorb the capital, but unless they truly offer leverage then they will be either displaced, or they won't provide enough value to eventually out run their costs.

Re: Dog-walking startup Wag raised $300M, then things got messy

#185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point isn't that those choices are older and therefore worse, it's that there are now more choices. They should be able to say why they went with PHP over something else that was available at the time they started.

> They should be able to say why they went with PHP over something else that was available at the time they started. Why, exactly? PHP, node, Ruby, Java, .NET, and Python are all capable tools with mature webapp frameworks. In terms of capabilities, the differences between them only matter for a small and rare set of projects. They could have decided on one of these platforms by rolling a die and it would have little…

"Presumably, the actual criteria was likely familiarity and fluency for their tech founder or early developers."

Then... why is it so hard for people to just answer like that? It's a perfectly acceptable reason, but often (like the GP in this subthread) I find people won't actually answer like that. They'll try to come up with weird justifications re: technical merit vs competing tech, and I've found their specific examples might be demonstrably wrong or are just fancier ways of saying "this was a personal preference".

What's been lost in all this discussion... the state of the code. I'd much prefer a stack in XYZ with some tests, sample data, repeatable steps, etc. vs a stack in ABC without any of the above.

Re: Dog-walking startup Wag raised $300M, then things got messy

#186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? Because I wouldn't want to join a team that makes decisions for no reason. > Presumably, the actual criteria was likely familiarity and fluency for their tech founder or early developers. That would be a completely valid answer to the question. The fact that they didn't answer the question at all is the problem here, not that they chose PHP.

Or maybe they didn’t want to waste time on a candidate with such superficial focuses? Next time ask them why they chose to paint the wall dark blue instead of navy blue.

If they were hiring an interior designer or painter who asked why a specific color or paint type was chosen, but gave no answer... that might still be weird.

Re: Dog-walking startup Wag raised $300M, then things got messy

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's hard to say a hypothetical energy source (commercially-viable fusion) is objectively better than one that actually exists.

A hypothetical, completely clean energy source is objectively better than one that emits greenhouse gasses, on its face.

I'll counter with a hypothetical way to clean up greenhouse gases using fossil fuels.

That is, until something can be put into production, it is not a superior product.

Re: Dog-walking startup Wag raised $300M, then things got messy

#188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A large part of this vision fund is basically Saudi oil money. These folks realize that oil doesn't have that much future if you think in terms of hundreds of years, so they are looking to diversify. Vision fund is not a tool to be on the cutting edge, its just a means to not be left behind. Hence they let VC market decide which horse is worth backing and then they swing their dollars around to see what happens.

Hundreds of years? There’s a reasonable probability _human civilization_ doesn’t have hundreds of years on this planet.

There is always a non zero probability of mankind extinction but within hundreds of years it should be fairly, fairly low

Re: Dog-walking startup Wag raised $300M, then things got messy

#189
post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You effectively summarized all my points towards "Uber is fine," "Boston Dynamics is fine," and "self-driving cars are fine." Uber is hemorrhaging money and are still competing against Lyft. What is their path towards profitability other than raising prices and losing customers? How do they become anything other than a glorified taxi company? Even if you disagree with me, you can't deny that the stock is trending dow…

> How do they become anything other than a glorified taxi company? Just curious, what's wrong with that? A global taxi dispatching service that's always available, always (debatably) efficiently routing drivers to passengers sounds like a game-winning plan. Regular taxi dispatching services weren't doing these things well, on top of just sucking since they had no real competition for so long.

> Just curious, what's wrong with that?

It just means Uber is a failed investment for SoftBank.

Re: Dog-walking startup Wag raised $300M, then things got messy

#190
I don't think that a good company can grow from a massive investment that early. The VC fund wants the company to spend the money and grow value quickly, not sit on it for years. That puts pressure on leadership to waste time and money worrying about building out offices, hiring top talent, contracting with big agencies, etc. None of that work has anything to do with building a quality product, growing a functional culture, or paying attention to what customers are saying. It suspends financial reality for both leadership and rank/file; instead it encourages waste.

Does closing a $250K contract matter? In a scrappy startup, that contract is a huge win. In an overfunded startup, its often considered a distraction.

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