The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom • Hacker News Board

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#181

Post by tk75x » Mon, Jul 29, 2019, 3:33 PM UTC

want2know wrote: post #114

AgloeDreams wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is hilariously misguided with little real truth to it. Are electric Cars heavier? Yes...but not really by much. Sure a Model S is heavy, but it is a full size car designed to compare with other 4000-pound range cars and a side effect of the platform's age meanwhile a Model 3 is less than 10% heavier than a BMW 3 series. The traction idea is just absurd. The real reason why Norway wants to raise the road tax is b…

Well maybe this is different in the US but in Europe electric cars are easily 20% heavier than similar models. The traction idea is not absurd. Tesla owners claim the tires last around 25000 kilometers instead of 60000 when the drive 'insane' all the time. Takeshi Uchiyamanda was always talking about the environment when he talked about hydrogen. And even now he sees that battey cars are taking off he still stand by…

Tire manufacturers warranty their tires for a specific amount of miles/kilometers. If a person buys a set of tires that are supposed to last for 50,000 miles (assuming they buy the correct size, load, and speed rated tires for their vehicle) and the tires wear down in half that distance, we would have seen a spate of people claiming their warranty replacements, and we have not.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#182

Post by SECProto » Mon, Jul 29, 2019, 3:36 PM UTC

martythemaniak wrote: post #170

sjwright wrote: post #10

The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Electric cars are still deeply strangled by two key factors: industry inertia and the cost/supply of lithium batteries. Once those two factors are solved (and a build-up of lithium mines is key to that) electric cars will go from being a niche within a niche to utterly dominating the market very, very quickly. Within the next decade we might see companies like Hyundai…

I mostly agree. I see the lengths to which people go to save a few cents on gas (like $1.20 vs $1.13/litre around here) and I can't help but think that once the "gas" price of EVs starts to permeate the mass consciousness, ICE vehicles are done for (outside of some specific niches). I pay ~$1.25 in electricity to go 100km in my EV (overnight charging at home), someone in a comparable car would be paying about 10x as…

> I pay ~$1.25 in electricity to go 100km in my EV (overnight charging at home), someone in a comparable car would be paying about 10x as much. People, by and large, have not understood this.

I understand this, but the numbers are incredibly location dependent. Where I am, there is no time of day metering, and electricity is $0.15/kWh. Gas is $1.16/litre.

As an example, to drive 100km in a model 3 (20kWh) is about $3, vs my current fuel efficient Yaris (I get 5.9l/100km) is $6.85. At that price difference of $3.85/100km, I have to drive 500,000km for the fuel to break even with the purchase price difference. Different cars and target markets, of course, as you mention.

I really want a large carbon tax placed on fuel, to make the calculation work for me to go electric. A $30k (Canadian) car would help the calculation, as well.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#183

Post by WorldMaker » Mon, Jul 29, 2019, 3:36 PM UTC

intrasight wrote: post #162

ianai wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People HATE the maintenance requirements of cars. If Tesla can establish their cars as almost never needing service with a usable life of something closer to 1 million miles and decades of use then suddenly paying a premium for their models can be spread over much greater periods of time. Personally, I wish they would decouple the platform from the comfort center. Have chassis form factors for various purposes (singl…

>If Tesla can establish their cars as almost never needing service... I drive a 15 year old Volvo wagon that almost never needs service :) Of course I exaggerate - I probably average $150/month in maintenance. Sorry, but the chances of Tesla doing the same over 15 years is zero.

Biggest long term maintenance expense in an EV is battery replacement, which best estimates right now put the industry at roughly a 15-30 year replacement rate. Depending on how you finance it, a battery replacement should be doable for Electric motors have way fewer moving parts and fluids and currently are generally expected to outlast any car frame they are put in.

Most EVs advantage regenerative braking so break maintenance cycles are also longer to comparably sized ICE vehicles.

The other maintenance risks are the exact same between an EV and any other car, things like: HVAC, plastic degradation, rust, and accident damage.

The one unique Tesla risk on a 15-year horizon is their software updates. Their penchant for over-the-air software updates is handy in the short term, but possibly a risk in the long term lifespan of a vehicle. Though that's a risk Tesla would hopefully be incentivized to avoid (for bad PR at least), and possibly a mitigatable risk.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#184

Post by jtuente » Mon, Jul 29, 2019, 3:39 PM UTC

_ea1k wrote: post #154

sjwright wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course EVs are booming in relative terms. Things boom all the time in relative terms. That's not remarkable. The pure EV market will eventually dominate vehicle sales in most segments, and most of the rest will be PHEV. Have EVs even hit 1% of worldwide vehicle sales yet? Call me back when it passes 10% and we'll talk about an EV boom.

I'm pretty sure that Tesla alone is over 1% (maybe 1.5 to 2%?) of the US car market. Worldwide is likely to be even higher for electric cars in general. The thing is that shifts in large markets like this take a long time to really be realized. It has taken Tesla 15 years to go from 0% to over 1%. Their current aggressive plans call to double that in another 2 years. The real question is what kind of change can they…

Looks like Tesla is sitting just under 1% currently YTD.

Edit: and 1.1% for 2018.

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/u-s-auto-sales-figures-by-brand...

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#185

Post by endorphone » Mon, Jul 29, 2019, 3:40 PM UTC

mabbo wrote: post #133

This seems like a bit of hype over very little. Look at the graph in the article. Lithium cost $5000/ton 4 years ago. Now it costs more than $11,000/ton. The only difference is the period in between where the price of lithium was almost $21,000/ton. Presumably the mines operation 4 years ago were profitable. Now there's all these additional mines, and demand still has the price doubled in 4 years. And yet somehow the…

"And yet somehow the story is that EVs aren't succeeding"

That isn't the story. Even the headline calls it an "electric-car boom". The story is that there is a rush to build lithium mines to get ahead of the demand, which seems eminently reasonable.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#186

Post by clouddrover » Mon, Jul 29, 2019, 3:47 PM UTC

serpix wrote: post #179

clouddrover wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They still have brakes Brake pads should last twice as long on an EV because the motor is used to recuperate energy. Here's a good braking demonstration with the Audi e-tron descending Pikes Peak: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5k5wAaDZw1o

twice? You only need brakes on an EV to stay still at the lights or in an emergency brake. That is it. The brakes last well over the entire lifetime of the car.

Don't believe the hype:

https://jalopnik.com/the-truth-about-brake-pad-replacement-i...

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#187

Post by WorldMaker » Mon, Jul 29, 2019, 3:52 PM UTC

joe-collins wrote: post #18

sjwright wrote: post #10

The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Electric cars are still deeply strangled by two key factors: industry inertia and the cost/supply of lithium batteries. Once those two factors are solved (and a build-up of lithium mines is key to that) electric cars will go from being a niche within a niche to utterly dominating the market very, very quickly. Within the next decade we might see companies like Hyundai…

I think a robust charging network is a third dependency. You need to have a garage, or commute to someplace with or near a charger. Down here in San Diego (East County), I don't see a lot of the latter.

The electric grid is really well built out at this point. Every street lamp, every electronic parking meter, every exterior wall outlet on a building is a possible Level 1 "trickle" charge. We have the ubiquity of power everywhere, just not the access in most current situations (street lamps and parking meters don't currently have outlets; exterior building outlets are intentionally hidden away from parking lot usage; places that do have those don't have processes for clearing access to them / may want ways to bill the extra electric usage).

Cars spend most of their day sitting somewhere and most of that often less than a meter from any sort of electric grid connection (just most of those can't be hooked into today). (I like to play a game of spot the nearest electrical object from wherever I park. It's rarely hard.)

Fancier, higher voltage/current Level 2+ chargers are great, but it should be incredibly easy to very quickly up the number of Level 1 charging spots on the electric grid: aka add more traditional wall outlets in parking lots/garages/streets. That sort of bootstrap should be something we talk about more, because it really is hard to beat the ubiquity of our electric grid build-out already. We can take advantage of that.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#188

Post by endorphone » Mon, Jul 29, 2019, 3:52 PM UTC

intrasight wrote: post #162

ianai wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People HATE the maintenance requirements of cars. If Tesla can establish their cars as almost never needing service with a usable life of something closer to 1 million miles and decades of use then suddenly paying a premium for their models can be spread over much greater periods of time. Personally, I wish they would decouple the platform from the comfort center. Have chassis form factors for various purposes (singl…

>If Tesla can establish their cars as almost never needing service... I drive a 15 year old Volvo wagon that almost never needs service :) Of course I exaggerate - I probably average $150/month in maintenance. Sorry, but the chances of Tesla doing the same over 15 years is zero.

Comparing it to your anecdote is not useful.

Most cars have a vigorous service schedule that is an endless sea of tire rotations, brake servicing, oil changes, belt replacements, among all of the unexpected maintenance of thousands of moving, wearing parts.

A Tesla or a comparable EV, in contrast, is a cartoonishly simplified variation with magnitudes fewer parts and maintenance needs. The probability of an EV requiring less maintenance than a ICE car is 100%.

Of course right now those EVs come at a premium, but as they hit the mainstream this is going to be a critical differentiation.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#189

Post by _ea1k » Mon, Jul 29, 2019, 3:57 PM UTC

jtuente wrote: post #184

_ea1k wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm pretty sure that Tesla alone is over 1% (maybe 1.5 to 2%?) of the US car market. Worldwide is likely to be even higher for electric cars in general. The thing is that shifts in large markets like this take a long time to really be realized. It has taken Tesla 15 years to go from 0% to over 1%. Their current aggressive plans call to double that in another 2 years. The real question is what kind of change can they…

Looks like Tesla is sitting just under 1% currently YTD. Edit: and 1.1% for 2018. http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/u-s-auto-sales-figures-by-brand...

Oh, I underestimated total sales. For some reason I thought the US was closer to 15 million sales this year. I do think that estimate may be slightly undercounting Tesla this year, but I could be wrong.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#190

Post by WorldMaker » Mon, Jul 29, 2019, 3:58 PM UTC

kileywm wrote: post #160

bluGill wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need 60amps for high speed charging, but can't you plug into a 15 amp outlet and charge overnight? You are correct that the grid will need updating - all those houses using 15 amps more add up.

Yes, but it is quite slow. Even 12 hours of charging might not be enough for someone's commute. For example, let's look at Honda's PHEV, the Clarity. 17kWh battery. 47 miles EV range. Charge time @ 120V = 12 hours. It essentially can charge up to 4 miles of range per hour on a standard circuit in a US home. Cold weather? Your power needs go up, range goes down, and charge rate drops as well. 15 amps @ 120V EV chargin…

Slow and steady "wins the race" though. An average car is parked more than 12 hours a day. (The average is even closer to 23 hours than it is to 12 hours.) You easily cover the average commute even at 4 miles range added per hour (and as sibling post points out, some EVs do even better than that in a Level 1 charge) even just charging a car ~50% of the time that car spends parked.