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China’s Economy Slows Sharply

nytimes.com

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Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#181

Post by sho »

malloryerik wrote: post #66
rrggrr wrote: post #5

I continue to believe - as I've said in prior HN comments - that the Chinese leadership welcomes this slowdown and the related trade dispute as a means to rebalance the domestic economy, while placing the blame for the rebalancing on the United States. I note that at least one distinguished China watcher agrees: https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/07/27/china-s-best-option...

Rebalancing the domestic economy toward greater household income is necessary to provide sustained growth in China, and that's what Michael Pettis argues in your link to his blog. Make no mistake though, the national and Party leadership is deathly afraid of low growth and it is exactly what they seek to avoid. The leadership knows they must create domestic consumer demand and that this must happen through an increas…

> China has a long history of civil unrest

> The return to authoritarianism can be seen as battening down the hatches

Obligatory not a "China expert" but I think you're very much correct. A lot of people don't seem to understand how different, and explosive, the political situation is in China. There is very little social trust, certainly little trust in government, and things could fly apart quickly and violently. The CCP is in a very difficult situation, trapped between fragmented and competing power bases, from a gigantic and angry rural underclass to godlike and kleptocratic SOEs to the tier-1 (and even 2) cities who by this point are practically mini-states with a law unto themselves. It is no surprise they have pulled every trick in the book to try to keep the music playing.

I totally agree that there needs to be a proper national health and social security system; this will be on the same magnitude as the "New Deal" the US had after the great depression. This could only be accomplished by a massive tax, and even more importantly power, overhaul. Xi Jinping is totally unreadable to me and I have no idea whether he is consolidating power just because that's what "strongmen" do or because he understands he needs it to execute on the desperately needed reforms. I doubt anyone not literally in the Politburo could say for sure. I hope it's the latter.

I keep saying this every year but the stakes just keep getting higher - things in China will come to a head sooner rather than later. And when they do, I want to be very far away, because it is a whole lot of shit, and a very big fan...

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#183

Post by tonyedgecombe »

keepsimple wrote: post #156

As a Chinese grew up in China and have been living in US in recent years, I am already used to how US media reports about China. The bottom line: I have not seen _any_ US media reporting China truthfully. NPR is usually the worst, but others not much better. What happens is that, because of untruthful reporting in US media, people in US does not know or understand what's going on in China. It seems a miracle that suc…

You can't separate the political system from the economy, the two are deeply intwined in all countries.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#184

Post by tonyedgecombe »

dana321 wrote: post #116
nosleeptill wrote: post #28

Having done business in China, and having friends still in China, as one of them put it, "China has more problems than you can count." China is really a complex house of cards, it looks more foreboding than it actually is in reality. The second the economy slows the consumers hide, and go back to stuffing cash into their mattresses. I think Trump is a fool, but in the case of China I think we need a fool. Trump belie…

Its not just China. Here in the UK for the first time, i've seen multiple billboards with nothing but scraps on them (they've deleted the adverts by scraping the remnants off)

The advertising industry has continued to grow in the UK so I don't think you can read too much into your anecdote.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281583/advertising-spend...

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#185

Post by pertymcpert »

keepsimple wrote: post #156

As a Chinese grew up in China and have been living in US in recent years, I am already used to how US media reports about China. The bottom line: I have not seen _any_ US media reporting China truthfully. NPR is usually the worst, but others not much better. What happens is that, because of untruthful reporting in US media, people in US does not know or understand what's going on in China. It seems a miracle that suc…

Give details.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#186

Post by sfcguyus »

rrggrr wrote: post #5

I continue to believe - as I've said in prior HN comments - that the Chinese leadership welcomes this slowdown and the related trade dispute as a means to rebalance the domestic economy, while placing the blame for the rebalancing on the United States. I note that at least one distinguished China watcher agrees: https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/07/27/china-s-best-option...

The rebalancing China needs is towards domestic consumption, even for itself to be more sustainable. What this has done is reduced investment and worsened consumption. It isn't really what the leadership want. China currently retains near the lowest consumption-as-a-proportion of GDP worldwide.

Controlling the Chinese economy is relatively easy with the state corporation machinery through the investment component and brings in robust economic growth in GDP numbers, but consumption really sags.

FWIW the entire western economic system canters around the consumption portions of GDP. That's why everyone loves to export to the US/Europe/Australia. Consumption is resistant to short term economic shocks.

You'll have many around here boasting higher saving rates in Asian nations, but these are the reasons the economies are far behind (inc Japan). Look at the other side of savings, more spending means more is earned as well creating a net social surplus for everyone beyond the private scale of saving. It takes exports to make up for this shortfall.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#187

Post by pram »

smnrchrds wrote: post #148
ubtual wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a common pattern amongst Chinese apologist Economy: Everyone says it's been failing for 10 years -> Chinese leadership is omnipotent regarding economy -> it's just a temporary slowdown, government will print more money -> Chinese leadership planned this slowdown Human rights: look at US! -> ignore comparisons to other countries other than US -> It's not really a concentration camp, since there's no mass murde…

> or slavery 300 years ago I am no apologist for any country, but wouldn't a better point be the very real, widespread, and constitutionally-protected prisoner slavery, which is happening in America today not just 300 years ago?

China literally has forced labor camps.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#188

Post by thomasz »

1996 wrote: post #81
neolefty wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love all these "You are also right" comments. One of the skills I hear about being prized in Chinese culture is the ability hold two conflicting ideas in your head at once, without feeling stressed about it. And that skill seems to help when trying to understand China itself!

Being able to manage what seems to be multiple "conflicting" ideas at once and without stress should be prized in every culture. The world is not black or white. Enlarging your perspectives always help.

Conflicting ideas means believing that princess Diana was murdered by MI6 and that she was kidnapped by another shadowy party. Or that migrants will simultaneously take all the jobs and that they all just come to leech our welfare system dry.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#189

Post by jeisc »

Laissez faire, telle devrait être la devise de toute puissance publique, depuis que le monde est civilisé ... Détestable principe que celui de ne vouloir grandir que par l'abaissement de nos voisins ! Il n'y a que la méchanceté et la malignité du cœur de satisfaites dans ce principe, et l’intérêt y est opposé. Laissez faire, morbleu ! Laissez faire !![4] "Let go, which should be the motto of all public power, since the world was civilized ... (It is) a detestable principle of those that want to enlarge (themselves) but by the abasement of our neighbours. There is but the wicked and the malignant heart(s) (who are) satisfied by this principle and (its) interest is opposed. Let go, alas".[5]

— René Louis de Voyer de Paulmy d'Argenson

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laissez-faire

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#190

Post by pzone »

dionian wrote: post #176
keepsimple wrote: post #156

As a Chinese grew up in China and have been living in US in recent years, I am already used to how US media reports about China. The bottom line: I have not seen _any_ US media reporting China truthfully. NPR is usually the worst, but others not much better. What happens is that, because of untruthful reporting in US media, people in US does not know or understand what's going on in China. It seems a miracle that suc…

Democracy isnt required for prosperity, as China has shown. Prosperity doesn't give you freedom though.

We've yet to see whether world-leading levels of per capita prosperity are achievable without freedom. At a minimum, freedom offers a strong competitive edge.
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