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Oceans 'soaking up more heat than estimated'

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Re: Oceans 'soaking up more heat than estimated'

#181

I find that the impending climate cataclysm is really starting to affect me and my day to day life in the form of crushing depression and anxiety. It's such a huge, nebulous, threatening issue that I can't even begin to think how we go about mitigating it (as preventing it entirely seems like a dead horse to flog at this point). I'd be really curious to know if anyone else is feeling like this? And how you may have g…

I totally understand your feelings. My main approach is that I try to embrace and accept doom. It's going to come anyway. I also don't believe there is any real value in a survival of the human race. The end was always going to come - and it actually will. For individuals today, for families tomorrow and for society next week.

I don't know if this way of thinking works when you have children, though. I don't have. And I assume then by principle of induction your chronological horizon of relevance is approaching infinity.

Psychologically it is soothing to live by the concept of being the change you want to see in the world.

Re: Oceans 'soaking up more heat than estimated'

#182
post #24

1) Go watch the movie cowspiracy on netflix. Go vegan. 2) Get an energy audit and see if your home needs more insulation. If a solar panel installation will pay for itself in a reasonable time where you live (rebates - SRECs - etc) consider getting one. 3) If you live in a warmer climate with safe biking paths - get an electric bike to go to work. 4) The next car you get should be electric or plugin hybrid. Even if i…

I do that stuff but it's not going to save the world. To save the world we need: a substantial price on carbon, a faster path to developing advanced nuclear power (in addition to continuing renewables deployment), a major rollout of lab-grown meat as soon as it's affordable with decent quality, negative emissions methods both technological (direct air capture) and biological (kelp, reforesting), and maybe some kind o…

We need to start with a revenue neutral carbon tax.

Re: Oceans 'soaking up more heat than estimated'

#183

I find that the impending climate cataclysm is really starting to affect me and my day to day life in the form of crushing depression and anxiety. It's such a huge, nebulous, threatening issue that I can't even begin to think how we go about mitigating it (as preventing it entirely seems like a dead horse to flog at this point). I'd be really curious to know if anyone else is feeling like this? And how you may have g…

Pardon the wall of text. This ended up being longer than expected; jump to the bottom for the concrete suggestions if you want to skip the personal context that follows.

> anyone else is feeling like this

I've been closely following environmental concerns for a couple of decades now; over 15 years ago, I felt there was a non-trivial (and ever growing) chance that the climate would, in my lifetime, end the lives of at least hundreds of millions of people. I posted about it on LiveJournal early in the millennium.

> crushing depression and anxiety

Unlike most, my struggle with negative emotions around this topic started in full force at a time when the science was far less certain than it is now. That always presented me a useful mental backstop: overriding negative emotions with the understanding that my intuitions were not strongly correlated and cross verified.

So I went forward, keeping an eye on things, but assuming that my emotional conclusions were going to be proven wrong. This is, I suppose, a concrete form of manufactured hope. (A lot of the collapse obsessed crowd use the term 'hopium'. The urban dictionary definition doesn't quite convey the meaning expressed.)

When I was in my teens and twenties, I was very environmentally focused, but it was all fairly local stuff. I worked with Greenpeace and Earth First for example.

As the possibilities of a future systemic collapse increased over time, and I started a family, I released my passion for local environmental concerns, exchanging it for a passion to maximize chances for the best possible outcomes for my family, especially my son.

That remains my strategic passion. From some people's perspectives, it is selfish, and I understand that point of view.

Based on my ongoing research and readings, the probability for civilization ending climate change in the next 30 years might be passing 50%. The story we're responding to here is one of many. If you look deeper, you will find that a growing percentage of climate scientists have passed the point of 'frantic' and are now entering the realm of depression and intellectually paralyzing anxiety.

etc etc etc. TL;DR: ....how do I maintain a positive mental state? It's not easy, but I am pretty successful at it.

Many sibling replies are concrete, practical and useful, so consider those. My passion for coming up with to protect my family's future is my take on that. I'll just add a few paragraphs of perspective, which is, for me, the most potent tool.

I know nothing to very little about the people who post on Hacker News. Even given that lack of information, I'll comfortably insist that each of us here has at least a 90% chance of living better, more comfortable, more healthy, more amazing lives over the next 20 years than 99.9% of all humans who have ever lived, including those alive today.

That is my perspective: no matter what happens in the future, I have lived and will most likely continue to live (for quite a few years) a life of enormous beauty and possibilities.

Unless (though well informed!) depression and anxiety about possible futures fucks it up for me.

Also: there's still a very good chance that the terrible futures we're concerned about won't come to pass, either for heretofore unknown natural reasons, or perhaps because we talking monkeys will get our shit together and start fixing things. (For the record: I don't have any solid ideas about what those fixes might be or how they might play out, but that is a limit on my own imagination and understanding, not on possible realities.)

In short: I'm aware of no ways that crushing anxiety and depression will improve my life.

Re: Oceans 'soaking up more heat than estimated'

#184
post #12

Yet more bad news on the climate change front. Based on previous discussions on HN, I'm sure there will be plenty of people proposing ambitious and creative technological solutions. I fear that there's an anthropic bias[0] at work where humans are convinced we will solve this problem because we've always solved other problems before. But we forget that if we hadn't solved those previous issues, we wouldn't be here to…

We already have solved the issue. We know how to produce massive amount of energy, all day long. We just don't want to implement it, because of local incident risk. And because of this we are in the middle of a global incident. Technology available in 5 years are already too late.

> We know how to produce massive amount of energy, all day long.

Are you hinting at nuclear power? If so, I (somewhat) agree with you.

The environmentalists that I used to hang out with believed with a burning passion that nuclear power was an absolute evil. I understand that perspective, though I disagree with it.

If one takes the position that The Main Future Threat is related to and rooted in human released greenhouse gases, then nuclear power is right back on the table, front and center, even given its challenges, risks and long-term side effects.

About those, though: my understanding is that it has been possible, for some time now, to produce nuclear power plants that are exceptionally safe and cost effective. And with substantial research dollars, the plethora of possible 'next gen' fission reactor technologies would yield all kinds of fruit to, for example, mitigate or remove the long term side effects.

Given all of that, I think solar+battery (along with hydro, wind and their up and coming friends) is now the way to go, given how much costs have come down.

Going all into nuclear power probably made sense a couple of decades ago.

Re: Oceans 'soaking up more heat than estimated'

#185
post #180
post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Success is the selective measure. Not the prerequisite. The prerequisite is a population that changes over time relative to the selective pressure.

I have never talked about the selective phase.

Right?

Re: Oceans 'soaking up more heat than estimated'

#186

I find that the impending climate cataclysm is really starting to affect me and my day to day life in the form of crushing depression and anxiety. It's such a huge, nebulous, threatening issue that I can't even begin to think how we go about mitigating it (as preventing it entirely seems like a dead horse to flog at this point). I'd be really curious to know if anyone else is feeling like this? And how you may have g…

No, I really don't have these big feels about this. I have a totally different set of big feels.

I gave up my car more than a decade ago. I eat less meat than most Americans and have for a long time. I have few possessions.

I have a serious medical condition, as does one of my sons, that is supposed to cost $100k+ annually for medical care alone (for each of us). Pursuing alternative remedies has eliminated all medical expenses and also dramatically reduced other costs, such as food expenses, because my body works better these days.

Me and my sons being healthier saves us and the world millions of dollars over our lifetimes. And if you assume the cost of that medical care in any way correlates to burden on the earth's resources, then presumably we have shrank our environmental footprint tremendously.

So I'm making as much difference as I think I can make on a personal level. I do wonder if I can make a difference more out in the world, but that seems very unlikely.

I'm an environmental studies major, though I never completed my degree. I would like to do more, career-wise, about environmental issues.

But I have a very serious credibility problem. I was a homemaker for a lot of years, so, clearly, I can't know dirt, never mind my 6 years of college and 5+ years at a corporate job. People think I'm making up the whole 'I have a dread disease and I'm getting well with diet and lifestyle' thing. Etc. ad nauseum.

I occasionally start little websites to try to put out good info that's actionable for individuals and blah blah blah. It never gets any real traction. I don't get taken seriously and can't further develop anything since I don't have engagement. I'm basically talking to myself in my little corner of the internet like a crazy person, which does not lead to anything of substance.

I made my peace a long time ago with the fact that I can only do as much as I can do. The road needs to rise up to meet me. There has to be fertile ground or it won't go anywhere, no matter how awesome the seeds of ideas are.

At this point, it's a bit hard for me to really get all upset about this in part because I was treated so horribly by so many people while I was homeless. The world didn't give a flying fuck about me and often heaped verbal abuse upon me on top of callous indifference under circumstances where that callous indifference should have helped land me in a grave.

It didn't. I'm still here.

But I kind of feel like if people really are this desperate, then they can try "the crazy thing" and maybe wonder if that woman with that incredulous story isn't just full of shit and maybe has something to contribute. And if people would rather hurtle to their doom than consider the possibility that I know something useful, whatevs.

We are all just dust in the wind anyway. And karma can be a bitch, I hear.

(shrug)

Re: Oceans 'soaking up more heat than estimated'

#187
post #179
post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not an analogy. Evolution is the actual process. No ifs ands or buts about it. There are myriad attempts to try alternatives to some ideal “market economy”. From Venezuela to Burning Man to Wikipedia to China to Japan to Romania to the Canadian wheat board. What succeeds, lives.

Ok, given your replies I can only conclude that I should never use an analogy in a reply to you ever again. You've read everything literally and run away with it. The only thing I was attempting to say is that the random mutation phase is a part of evolution and that can't have a success prerequisite. This was intended to say that one can't require previous success to be a prerequisite to political and economic ideas…

What I am conveying to you is that your misunderstandings of evolution are causing you to say things that are illogical pretzels.

Evolution is such a beautiful, elegant discovery. It underlies so much behaviour in the universe, from biology to politics to economics to culture.

If you insist on calling it an analogy--even though it is in fact the reality of the situation, which is just one more example of you misunderstanding it--your use of it is faulty, and so your "analogy" is failing.

And towards the overall point, there are plenty of competing ideas and executions to the market economy. While I sustain none are succeeding, many adventurers in this field would disagree.

While you just don't seem to know about them, perhaps you could take this conversation as a call to action to go search for the many groups working on testing different economical models and go join them. It could be fun!

Re: Oceans 'soaking up more heat than estimated'

#188
post #138

If they got this number wrong by 60% for all these years and just noticed, why should I trust anything else about all of their different, conflicting climate models?

True, why trust anything. It is not as if there is some systematic way to over time iteratively improve a rational model that is testable and verifiable through a competitive process.

How would you propose testing or verifying a non-falsifiable model? Each sample of future data we have tends to show our models to be simply broken except in the most broad sense of a longterm gradual increase in temperatures. For instance from 2001 and 2010 the warming slowed to 0.11C per decade. [1] For the 17 years before then was 0.17C. There was not a single model that predicted this and, in spite of a number of after the fact hypotheses for that apparent decline, there is still no decisive answer. Does this not kind of bother you?

We might argue that well since they're getting the overall picture right, that they must be fundamentally correct, even if they don't perform so well on the micro scale. But I'm not sure this is a reasonable argument. In particular, the past 400k years of Earth [2] show a very regular waxing and waning of temperatures, with the scale increasing upwards of 10C from the frequently extremely rapid transition from the mins to the maxes. Not only is about now when you would expect to be entering a warming era, but we've yet to even hit the highs of temperatures the planet reached in relatively recent geologic history, though before humans even existed. This is no way suggesting that humans are not contributing to the current phase of climate change, yet at the same time is it really particularly insightful to propose that temperatures will continue to do as they've done for hundreds of thousands of years?

As usual I'm sure people will just downvote this, but I genuinely have no clue why. It's as if its taboo to ask, what I think, are completely reasonable questions. At the same time it's completely kosher to freak out and suggest climate change could imminently end the very species of humankind, which is not a remotely realistic outcome even in the most catastrophic and near 0 probability level outcomes.

[1] - https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/did-global-warmin...

[2] - https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f8/Ice_Age_...

Re: Oceans 'soaking up more heat than estimated'

#189
post #187
post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, given your replies I can only conclude that I should never use an analogy in a reply to you ever again. You've read everything literally and run away with it. The only thing I was attempting to say is that the random mutation phase is a part of evolution and that can't have a success prerequisite. This was intended to say that one can't require previous success to be a prerequisite to political and economic ideas…

What I am conveying to you is that your misunderstandings of evolution are causing you to say things that are illogical pretzels. Evolution is such a beautiful, elegant discovery. It underlies so much behaviour in the universe, from biology to politics to economics to culture. If you insist on calling it an analogy--even though it is in fact the reality of the situation, which is just one more example of you misunder…

This is your second reply to where I explain what I meant with regards to evolution without you enlightening me about what's wrong but instead go on about evolution in some sort of spiritual awe.

But you're not done there. After you've decided to overrule that the author of the analogy used it as an analogy you extrapolate that since I'm not following your evolutionary wanderings I'm clearly ignorant of politics and economics altogether. What the hell?

Re: Oceans 'soaking up more heat than estimated'

#190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ive stopped eating red meat, and in a bad week 25% of my meals are vegan, in a good week 75% or more of my meals are vegan. I’ve read that a medium sized dog has the carbon footprint of a medium sized SUV, approximately. I have two small-medium dogs. They eat a lot of vegetables and legumes. 90% of their snacks / treats are sweet potato / carrots / apples. Their main meals consist of a mix of grated veggies, cooked b…

You may want to look into supplementing the dogs’ diets with taurine. There is rising suspicion in the vet world that a diet high in legumes, pulses, and potatoes may suppress taurine absorption and increase the risk of developing dilated cardiomyopathy: https://www.fda.gov/animalveterinary/newsevents/cvmupdates/u...

Wow! Thanks for the heads up. I'll be sure to cycle them off the split peas. I wonder if sweet potatoes could be a problem too. Will look in to supplementing their diets.

Thanks :)

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