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Netflix shares decline after reporting disappointing subscriber growth

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Re: Netflix shares decline after reporting disappointing subscriber growth

#181

Post by dunpeal »

1123581321 wrote: post #180
dunpeal wrote: post #106

An interesting question for me is whether Netflix will also experience a wave of talent departures as an additional result of this stock plunge. Netflix is competing for talent as a FAANG outfit, and as such much of the value they provide to their employees depends on their RSUs. This works great as long as stock price is on a steep rise, as has generally been the case for FAANG over the past several years. Now that…

Factor into your calculation that the stock is now cheaper for new hires, and that Netflix can adjust compensation to retain employees. I personally don’t think it’s an interesting question yet.

> I personally don’t think it’s an interesting question yet.

You're probably right. I think it will become interesting once a FAANG starts losing enough stock value and cash that compensation is no longer competitive and cannot be adjusted.

My sense is that retention relying on constant and substantial stock appreciation is inherently dangerous for the employer, because it means that if their stock value plunges, their woes will be compounded by almost immediate talent exodus.

This is not yet the case for Netflix, which can still pay well.

Re: Netflix shares decline after reporting disappointing subscriber growth

#182

Post by TheCoelacanth »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #101
mrep wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't blame them. Netflix had 2 options: 1. Continue licensing content and be subject to the whims of the content creators who can destroy their margin by increasing fees. The content creators can also start their own streaming services like disney is planning on doing eating into that market of streaming. 2. Create their own content eliminating the 2 main risks in option 1. Option 2 is really the only viable optio…

Creating good content is harder than leasing it. Option 2 has it's risks, and honestly they seem higher. Why would Disney or Comcast want Netflix to fail when it's a boon for them currently? Sure, they'll aggressively negotiate the best deals for themselves, sure they'll plan for a backup in the event Netflix would ever stop leasing their content, but why kick a cash cow in the teeth? It's bad business. If anything,…

No one really wants a middle man to be making a lot of money off of them. They might tolerate it for some time, but if they ever have an option to do so they are either going to cut out the middle man (sell directly to consumers) or commoditize the middle man (lots of places to get the same content all making only a very small markup). A company with the potential investment capital of Disney or Comcast will almost certainly be able to manage one of those sooner or later. There is no path to long term profitability for Netflix just through reselling content from a few huge media conglomerates.

Re: Netflix shares decline after reporting disappointing subscriber growth

#183

Post by scarface74 »

heavenlyblue wrote: post #89
orky56 wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They will have the technology side covered [1] but they have to nail the pricing/catalogue/UI mix to succeed. However Disney has the resources (time/$/talent) to go at it until they take down Netflix. [1]: https://www.theverge.com/2017/8/9/16118694/disney-bamtech-es...

It’s not 90s anymore. Technology is a commodity. If they are smart enough anout it they’ve got all the chances to beat Netflix by that time.

That’s what HBO thought. Their streaming service was a streaming pile of crap technologically. They ended up using BAMTech to redo it. Disney bought BAMTech.

Re: Netflix shares decline after reporting disappointing subscriber growth

#184

Post by scrooched_moose »

eganist wrote: post #78
wgerard wrote: post #8

Total anecdote: Kinda sucks when shows leave Netflix and don't get replaced; half the appeal of Netflix is the ability to quickly switch between Futurama and Always Sunny, and more importantly to be able to watch those shows on a platform that doesn't completely suck (FX's app has got to be one of the worst apps I've ever used). When "Parts Unknown" was about to leave Netflix, I really questioned whether it was worth…

Happened to me with Amazon Prime as well. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16937290 The moment they announced the price hike, it's like something cracked in my rationalization to maintain the service, and every adverse complaint I've ever queued up in my mind against the service floated right to the top. I'm on the verge of the same with Netflix. If I see a price hike, I'll quit just the same. They've been losing…

At least in my area, most of my orders still arrive in 2 days after cancelling. I just have to order a little less frequently to get that $35 free ship threshold.

I was noticing I was ordering far less recently (mostly settled in the new house now), and the fact they still refuse to support Chromecast meant Prime Video was useless for me. The price hike was the final nail.

Re: Netflix shares decline after reporting disappointing subscriber growth

#185

Post by throwawaymath »

scurvy wrote: post #175
throwawaymath wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Opening a position on the day of the earnings announcement is generally a bad idea regardless of whether you’re right or wrong about the direction. Volatility is effectively priced in at that point.

You're confusing stock with options.

No, I'm not. I'm not talking about implied volatility. I'm talking about the way in which the stock price significantly changes in anticipation of the earnings announcement. Volatility is a formal variable for derivatives, but that doesn't mean equities (and the broader market) do not also experience volatility.

Re: Netflix shares decline after reporting disappointing subscriber growth

#186

Post by throwawaymath »

hueving wrote: post #30
throwawaymath wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Opening a position on the day of the earnings announcement is generally a bad idea regardless of whether you’re right or wrong about the direction. Volatility is effectively priced in at that point.

You're thinking of options, not stock. Stock price itself can't imply volatility, it can only reflect market expectations of earnings.

While implied volatility is a feature of derivatives (and by extension, options), the price of an equity does undergo volatility, particularly from the heightened trading activity in anticipation of e.g. earnings. Volatility is not restricted to the definition of implied volatility.

Re: Netflix shares decline after reporting disappointing subscriber growth

#187

Post by ash663 »

Pxtl wrote: post #6
firasd wrote: post #2

Here in India, Netflix costs ₹500/mo. Amazon Prime costs ₹999 for the whole year. Both are much pricier compared to regular cable TV, which gives you hundreds of channels for a few hundred rupees per month. So there's a saturation point to at least some of their international expansion unless incomes start rising more broadly... Also, anecdotally, I only have so much time for 'prestige' TV. They cover Delhi and Youtu…

Surprising how the ratio is so far reversed in India. Here in Canada (which is a similar market to the USA), Netflix is the cheapest option. Cable TV is several times more expensive for even a basic plan, and Amazon Prime costs about the same as Netflix (but includes the other Prime services).

Prime is cheap because Amazon is still trying to acquire their market in India and can afford to lose money for a while. Contrary to what OP said, cable TV with HD, and most of the channels that a family would need is definitely more expensive than Netflix.

Re: Netflix shares decline after reporting disappointing subscriber growth

#188

Post by sieabahlpark »

heavenlyblue wrote: post #81
geoffmcc wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have noticed lately that the "Are you still there" message has gone away. While it is nice when you are awake, it sucks when you fall asleep and wake up on season 6 of something when last you knew you were on season 2. Then you have to figure out exactly what episode you fell asleep on, not impossible but can be a pain.

Hate that option. I tend to work from home and leave my TV with something on. Picking up my remote every few hours is a waste. I don’t see why it’s so hard to let users turn it off.

I think your arm could deal with the pain every few hours.

Re: Netflix shares decline after reporting disappointing subscriber growth

#189

Post by MrMember »

eganist wrote: post #78
wgerard wrote: post #8

Total anecdote: Kinda sucks when shows leave Netflix and don't get replaced; half the appeal of Netflix is the ability to quickly switch between Futurama and Always Sunny, and more importantly to be able to watch those shows on a platform that doesn't completely suck (FX's app has got to be one of the worst apps I've ever used). When "Parts Unknown" was about to leave Netflix, I really questioned whether it was worth…

Happened to me with Amazon Prime as well. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16937290 The moment they announced the price hike, it's like something cracked in my rationalization to maintain the service, and every adverse complaint I've ever queued up in my mind against the service floated right to the top. I'm on the verge of the same with Netflix. If I see a price hike, I'll quit just the same. They've been losing…

I cancelled my Netflix account around a year ago because of issues that kept accumulating. Removal of shows, deteriorating UX, price hikes, etc. I haven't missed it.

I stopped renewing Prime when they announced the most recent price hike. It runs out in a week and I already don't miss it. If I need something in two days I'll pay for two day shipping. In all likelihood I'll save money this way.

Re: Netflix shares decline after reporting disappointing subscriber growth

#190

Post by Paianni »

majewsky wrote: post #160
TeMPOraL wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. Recently, Netflix reminded me why ultimately, torrents are simply superior. You see, I initially subscribed to Netflix because it had most of Star Trek on it - all the TV shows + many (I think most) of the movies. The ability to watch an episode every now and then was what kept me subscribed even through the periods I couldn't find anything else interesting there. Now, recently came a time I actually wanted t…

> Torrents cause a PITA with storage management, but have this one lovely feature - once a file is on your hard drive, it stays there. Same reason why I still buy my music on actual CDs. Sure, I rip them once and only use the files afterwards, but I can be assured that no matter what happens to my backup, I'll still have a large chunk of my music collection available in 30 years.

Alternatively, one could just burn FLACs to recordable Blu-rays (preferably M-Discs) and achieve the same result.
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