NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash • Hacker News Board

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#181

Post by d0lph » Thu, Jun 07, 2018, 6:53 PM UTC

TheForumTroll wrote: post #86

d0lph wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or perhaps us fingers-in-ears Musk fans don't expect the AP to be perfect. Especially considering how new the fields are. Autopilot doesn't need to be perfect, just better than humans.

The thing is that the problem isn't just the Autopilot driving over white lines. Even cheap VW Up's and other micro cars would have applied the brakes automatically when an object was in the way. It is a huge failure that a Tesla can do both without stopping. Two huge fails.

You're right, it was a failure, a terrible failure, but it will be improved.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#182

Post by JackCh » Thu, Jun 07, 2018, 6:53 PM UTC

mmusson wrote: post #116

Animats wrote: post #42

NTSB: • At 8 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla was following a lead vehicle and was traveling about 65 mph. • At 7 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla began a left steering movement while following a lead vehicle. • At 4 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla was no longer following a lead vehicle. • At 3 seconds prior to the crash and up to the time of impact with the crash attenuator, the Tesla’s speed increas…

I wonder how soon radar reflecting paints will start being used on roadways and barriers, etc. That seems like it would be a general benefit to all brands of cars with auto drive. At the end of the day we want to know if the autonomous systems are safe. Policy decisions will end up depending on that determination. That requires clear definitions for what constitutes failures and accurate gathering of data.

These cars aren't crashing into stationary objects that don't have a radar return. The software in the cars is deliberately filtering out the radar returns of stationary objects. It wouldn't matter how many radar reflectors you slapped on the barrier, the Tesla would ignore the radar return of the stationary barrier.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#183

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Jun 07, 2018, 6:53 PM UTC

chinhodado wrote: post #138

rcxdude wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but the radar has poor angular resolution (but a good idea of relative velocity), so it cannot tell the difference between a stationary object at the side of the road and one in the middle of it, so it must ignore all stationary object (by ignoring all objects with an apparent velocity approximately equal to the speed of the vehicle) in order to avoid constant false positives.

Can you explain further what "poor angular resolution" means?

[deleted]

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#184

Post by Xylakant » Thu, Jun 07, 2018, 6:54 PM UTC

slg wrote: post #110

rhacker wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get that in 5-10 years we MAY have SDVs that are superior than human drivers. But I think a lot of people have a mental model of SDVs _right now_ being superior to human drivers. I can't remember the crash stats, but I think the only way to know for sure is to calculate the number of miles a single human generally drives on average before they are involved in a collision or crash, etc... Now I don't have the number…

We don't have exact numbers for Tesla but there are 2 confirmed casualties in what is conservatively over a billion Autopilot miles. The average casualty rate for human drivers is something around 1.25 death per 100 million miles. Those numbers are not directly comparable given that Autopilot is not something that is used during 100% of all driving miles and Tesla drivers are not average car drivers. However, there i…

Autopilot will only be engaged on roads and under conditions that are favorable to autonomous driving, but fatal accidents tend to happen more under unfavorable conditions for human drivers. The non-Tesla numbers also include cars that are smaller, cheaper and less sophisticated, so much more likely to lead to fatal outcomes in crashes. So these numbers are heavily skewed in favor of Tesla. The proper comparison would be waymos performance and they’ve been without a fatal crash afaik. As an alternative you could pull the numbers for cars of similar build on similar roads for human drivers.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#185

Post by dsfyu404ed » Thu, Jun 07, 2018, 6:55 PM UTC

crote wrote: post #148

panopticon wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Out of curiosity, are you not in the U.S.? These types of lane dividers are incredibly common throughout the country. Note that I'm not defending the safety of them; I'm just surprised to see someone call them out as a hazard as they're such a common sight.

Dutch citizen here, I have never seen something like this. To compare, here's a similar situation in The Netherlands: https://www.google.nl/maps/@52.0928662,5.1734685,3a,75y,281.... Points of interest: - big solid white arrow, line-fade is nearly impossible - white-green sign indicating that the road is splitting - big shoulder in the continuation of the division - loads of grass instead of immediately using a metal…

The intersection in the Tesla crash is pretty sub par by US standards. Most highway off ramps are as you described. In space restricted areas we tend to use tons of reflectors then water/sand barrels or metal crumple barriers instead of gently rising barriers and a grass infield.

In basically all cases where there's a lot of pavement that isn't a lane there's diagonal lines of some sort that make it very clear that there isn't a lane there. A good chunk of the time there's a rumble strip of some sort.

In rural areas there's less signage, reflectors and barriers but the infield is usually grass, dirt or swampy depending on local climate.

Edit: and I'm wrong because why?

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#186

Post by alasdair_ » Thu, Jun 07, 2018, 6:55 PM UTC

metalliqaz wrote: post #139

Animats wrote: post #42

NTSB: • At 8 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla was following a lead vehicle and was traveling about 65 mph. • At 7 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla began a left steering movement while following a lead vehicle. • At 4 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla was no longer following a lead vehicle. • At 3 seconds prior to the crash and up to the time of impact with the crash attenuator, the Tesla’s speed increas…

But why would it speed up beyond the speed limit?

In CA traffic (and many other states) driving at the speed limit is likely more dangerous than driving with the flow of traffic (roughly 10 MPH over the limit - sometimes more than that).

One of the options for Autopilot is that you can tell it "Never go more than X MPH over the speed limit" with a common setting being a few miles an hour over.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#187

Post by alasdair_ » Thu, Jun 07, 2018, 6:57 PM UTC

vm wrote: post #28

jschwartzi wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I were rapidly approaching a barrier at full speed on a highway, I might put my hands up and guard my face before the crash.

If you were aware of what was happening. Smartphones are distracting.

Is there any proof that the guy who died was using a smartphone at the time of the crash?

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#188

Post by Alupis » Thu, Jun 07, 2018, 6:58 PM UTC

thatswrong0 wrote: post #135

jumelles wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes? Welcome to the automotive industry. Lives are at stake.

Is there an equivalent safety standard for ICE vehicles? I don't think a gas task would do particularly well in the exact same circumstance either

ICE vehicles don't typically spontaneously combust after a crash...

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#189

Post by fixermark » Thu, Jun 07, 2018, 6:58 PM UTC

nlawalker wrote: post #50

Animats wrote: post #42

NTSB: • At 8 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla was following a lead vehicle and was traveling about 65 mph. • At 7 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla began a left steering movement while following a lead vehicle. • At 4 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla was no longer following a lead vehicle. • At 3 seconds prior to the crash and up to the time of impact with the crash attenuator, the Tesla’s speed increas…

>> These vehicles will run into stationary obstacles at full speed with no warning or emergency braking at all. That is by design. This is not an implementation bug or sensor failure. A little off topic, but I'm curious: I usually use "by design" to mean "an intentional result." How do other people use the term? In this case, the behavior is a result of the design (as opposed to the implementation), but is surely not…

I tend to distinguish "Working as intended" and "Working as implemented."

Working as intended: the system works in a basic average-observer human sense

Working as implemented: there were no errors in implementation, and the system is performing within the tolerances of that implementation (but the implementation itself may be flawed, or may be to a design that violates average human expectations).

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#190

Post by Dirlewanger » Thu, Jun 07, 2018, 6:59 PM UTC

jungturk wrote: post #64

beenBoutIT wrote: post #38

Anyone here actually think Elon uses autopilot?

Not sure about Elon, but I suspect (hope?) most of us Tesla drivers have familiarized themselves with the limitations of the system. Its got a couple scenarios in my experience where it shines - chiefly long drives on clean clear interstates and stop-and-go traffic - but its got suicidal tendencies in others. Its not unlike being driven by a tipsy friend or a teenager - there are enough indications that it can't be t…

>most of us Tesla drivers have familiarized themselves with the limitations of the system

You're giving too much credit to the average driver. Just because they're richer than the average driver doesn't mean they're going to be more discerning about the car's advanced features. Addtionally, Tesla still advertising Autopilot as "Full Self-Driving Hardware" is borderline negligence.