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State of Washington sues Facebook and Google over failure to disclose spending

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Re: State of Washington sues Facebook and Google over failure to disclose spending

#181
post #155
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> which I believe has strong empirical support What is that strong support? We routinely see very well-moneyed campaigns lose. In the very last election in the US the losing candidate outspent the winning one - if you look at Super-PAC spending (which is the one considered most "dark and dangerous", right?) the losing campaign had gathered 3x from the winning one ($189.4M against $59.3M). Somehow turned out having mo…

As you noted, it's a complicated relationship [1], consequently the only place we'd be likely to see a reliable result is in aggregate. Correlation is not causation, but congressional campaigns in 2012 that outspent their opponent won 91% of the time [2]. One of the clearer links is to voter turnout. I've read it takes between $5-20 to reliably motivate a voter to vote. Sans this minimum level of funding, your suppor…

> Sans this minimum level of funding, your supporters don't go to the polls, and you don't win.

Ah, of course, you have the minimum funding to get your message out, I do not doubt that for a minute. There's a minimum level beyond which you can not mount a successful campaign. But beyond that level, the link between dollars and votes becomes much less direct and obvious.

> general consensus is that the difference in funding was largely erased by media time

Yeah, of course, Trump used this trick. But the next one might use another trick. The common thread is that there are many ways to conduct the campaign, and dollars alone do not mean victory.

> we're in an era where we actually don't know how much "money with intent of political influence" is being spent.

Not exactly, but organizations with influence on national scale are not exactly invisible, and their ad spending is not secret too. I mean, you can't exactly hide a public electoral ad, right? And knowing how much ads were run (public info) and what is a typical spot price for an ad (public info), and the same for rallies, etc. one can estimate the spending if not entirely accurately, then with enough accuracy to be able to reason about it, I think. Of course, this does not account for things like free airtime given by networks to a popular entertaining personality or other ways to buy exposure for cheap, but this only underlines the point that dollars is not everything.

Re: State of Washington sues Facebook and Google over failure to disclose spending

#182
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> which I believe has strong empirical support What is that strong support? We routinely see very well-moneyed campaigns lose. In the very last election in the US the losing candidate outspent the winning one - if you look at Super-PAC spending (which is the one considered most "dark and dangerous", right?) the losing campaign had gathered 3x from the winning one ($189.4M against $59.3M). Somehow turned out having mo…

"We routinely see very well-moneyed campaigns lose." We see it every so often, but I really don't think we see it often, and we don't see the very well moneyed campaign lose to a campaign run on a shoestring.

What's "often" however? I think it happens often enough to doubt direct link between dollars and votes, at least absent hard data proving it.

Re: State of Washington sues Facebook and Google over failure to disclose spending

#183
post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would you see greater recourse and more opportunity for remedy at the state level?

You have better representation. Federally, my Senator represents ~3 million constituents, while my House representative represents ~800k. At the state level, those numbers shrink from 3 million to 120,000, and from 800k to 40k. If you live in a state that really believes in state representation, like New Hampshire or Vermont, then your representative likely only has 3 or 4 thousand constituents. This means I can pop…

That's true and fair.

I suppose my counterpoint would come from the outsized effect "national level" money can have when it randomly falls on local elections (e.g. $50M on the GA-6 [1] for a special term that only ran until this year).

It seems like there's a certain "supported by people outside of our community" distaste to mega-funding, but I'm not going to kid myself and imagine it's irrelevant either.

I think I'd agree with you more if there were greater voter turnout.

But then, my ideal democracy is a minimal, voter-defense-esque test to register to vote + voting days as holidays + tax rebate for voting. Essentially, everything you could do to increase turnout of informed voters.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia%27s_6th_congressiona...

Re: State of Washington sues Facebook and Google over failure to disclose spending

#184
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So how do you get your message out without spending money? Do you only consider it freedom of speech if no one has a chance of hearing you? Spending money is how people with novel ideas expose it to more people and can hope to compete against established ideas that don’t need to be marketed.

Personal face to face communication does not cost money. So, the only thing being banned is paying other people to do something for you which does not seem like speech to me. Further, there are many options out there which don't involve spending money to spread a message. Write a book and you can be paid to spread your message. If don't have the time a YouTube commentator can also get paid as can bloggers etc. Grante…

Protection against persuasion?

Re: State of Washington sues Facebook and Google over failure to disclose spending

#186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So if you don't register, your free speech is abridged. The first amendment doesn't say you have to register before you are given free speech.

I don't know what to tell you, other than that the Public Disclosure Commission and the Fair Campaign Practices Act have been Washington state law since the early 1970s.

I don't know what to tell you either, but the authors of the First Amendment had some pretty strong ideas on the subject about 200 years before that. They didn't seem quite as ambivalent on the subject as most people here. I wonder why?

Re: State of Washington sues Facebook and Google over failure to disclose spending

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something about "making no law abridging the freedom of the press." What other forms of speech would you, personally, like to see require government registration?

How about: any claim to be a medical professional, law enforcement officer, or attorney? (I’m sure there’s more, but those come immediately to mind.)

That would fall under the category of fraud, which is not considered protected speech.

Political speech, on the other hand, is exactly what the framers of the Constitution had in mind. You cannot have a participatory democratic republic without it, any more than you can defend one without arms.

Disagree? Great, there's a process in place for amending the Constitution. We should either follow the process or follow the document. Those are the only legitimate options.

Re: State of Washington sues Facebook and Google over failure to disclose spending

#188

The numbers reported strike me as very small (I buy digital political ads for work). Especially 1.1mm in 2016 for FB statewide strikes me as tiny! Looking at official candidate committees for Senate+Congress only in '16 is close-ish to 30mm raised (1). Plus PACs, 501c3/4s, any Presidential spend on top, I would guess double that at least. Even if 50mm total spend that would be only 2% spent on FB which seems really l…

Have you had any ads pulled from either platform recently?

Re: State of Washington sues Facebook and Google over failure to disclose spending

#189
post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have better representation. Federally, my Senator represents ~3 million constituents, while my House representative represents ~800k. At the state level, those numbers shrink from 3 million to 120,000, and from 800k to 40k. If you live in a state that really believes in state representation, like New Hampshire or Vermont, then your representative likely only has 3 or 4 thousand constituents. This means I can pop…

That's true and fair. I suppose my counterpoint would come from the outsized effect "national level" money can have when it randomly falls on local elections (e.g. $50M on the GA-6 [1] for a special term that only ran until this year). It seems like there's a certain "supported by people outside of our community" distaste to mega-funding, but I'm not going to kid myself and imagine it's irrelevant either. I think I'd…

To be fair, the "national level" money would likely have to be split 50 ways anyway, as any national level events worth lobbying for would likely affect all the states, to varying degrees of reception.

Past that, voter engagement is a tricky thing. It's easy to know what things we want to vote for, but it's hard to know whether or not those things are economically feasible unless we're economists. Trump's tax cuts, for example, had experts saying that through economic growth would pay for itself, while other experts have said there's no way that's possible. Similarly so with Bernie Sanders' health care proposals. See the recent pension crisis affecting Detroit, and may still cause strife in municipalities all over. Employee pensions are exactly the sort of thing I might vote for, only to find out 30 years down the road that it literally destroyed my town's government.

It's harder and harder to be informed without being a multi-doctorate + JD, and we keep voting ourselves favors from the public largesse without knowing if they'll work or not. Tax too little, and infrastructure and services fall off. Tax too much, you experience capital flight, and infrastructure and services fall off.

The wisdom of the masses isn't always, or even usually wise.

Re: State of Washington sues Facebook and Google over failure to disclose spending

#190
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personal face to face communication does not cost money. So, the only thing being banned is paying other people to do something for you which does not seem like speech to me. Further, there are many options out there which don't involve spending money to spread a message. Write a book and you can be paid to spread your message. If don't have the time a YouTube commentator can also get paid as can bloggers etc. Grante…

Protection against persuasion?

Propaganda works on different principles than persuasion. Repeat stuff enough and just about anything starts to sound reasonable.

This is used by just about everyone, "Save the Whales!" and "Think of the Children!" are calls to action without support. They boil down to "Do this!" as a slogan and it works.

Propaganda can also frame issues, saying "Job Creators!" ignores the demand side of the equation. Without revenue companies will fire people, but the people doing the firing are still defined as "Job Creators!" Use automation and replace 1/2 the workforce with robots and their "Creating high paying jobs in automation!" It's not about changing people's minds it's about changing how people think.

Trickle down at least pretends to have an argument. This is closer to a religious. "We must appease the people on high that make everything work, (with tax breaks or whatever)"

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