Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

ir.tesla.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

181–190 of 193 posts

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#181

Post by Robotbeat »

agumonkey wrote: post #179
Robotbeat wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're absolutely right, and there's a lot of innovation that comes not from automating existing human technique but from changing how things are made so that the technique can be easily automated. For example: from through-hole components in PCBs to surface mount components in PCBs. Or even the PCB itself, which replaced wire wrapping (which, granted, can be automated) and soldering components together with free wir…

Yeah, that's exactly the kind of shift I was thinking about. Now that said, I don't think Tesla is ready to do this, which would somehow prove old timers right. If Tesla managed to this bmw level of automation they'd be pushing enough cars to fulfill demands and keep investors. Later they'll make that 20% jump if Musk really wants to make a SpaceX kind of leap.

They are pushing enough cars, I think. One factory producing about 4000 cars per week is a very large factory, indeed!

I think Tesla is continually thinking of ways to improve the design, develop new techniques that can be automated easier. And I don't think these are all making it into the Model 3. Some will need to wait until the Model Y or even later. For instance, apparently the Model Y will ditch the 12 volt battery and feature a MUCH shorter/simpler wiring harness (which is one thing that's incredibly hard to automate, so making it simpler should help a lot): https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-y-ditch-12-volt-battery-95...

(with the caveat that Model Y plans seem to change each quarter)

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#182

Post by cjhopman »

Robotbeat wrote: post #82
toomuchtodo wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correct! And that NUMMI run rate Toyota achieved was (supposedly) only 60% of the facility's total manufacturing capacity. It appears to be entirely realistic for Tesla to meet their 500k/year vehicle production rate at NUMMI.

Indeed. They originally planned to make 500,000 Teslas (including the Model 3) per year by 2020, and they'll almost certainly meet that. Aim for the Moon, and if you miss, you may still reach Mars.

2020? Just last year they said they'd do it by 2018.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#183

Post by snowwrestler »

projectramo wrote: post #139
Someone1234 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The cars are really a minimal amount of hardware, with software wrapped around them. It is a car... An electric car at that, where battery tech and costs have pretty much been the cornerstone of Tesla's success. Claiming hardware doesn't matter to a car company is like claiming foundation doesn't matter for a house. Plus there's nothing particularly minimalist about any of Tesla's cars. They take relatively simple…

I don't know enough about all the parts of the car, but generally speaking, many people have argued that an electric car is much simpler than a mechanical car. (Something to do with the complexity of the engine, gear, drive train etc). If I recall, one study indicated that maintenance costs on an ev are a fraction of the current costs for that reason.

An electric drive train has far fewer parts than a typical piston engine in a car. From that perspective, it's simpler.

But Tesla insists on putting in all sorts of clever electric doodads like electronic door handles and side mirrors and power windows that have to pop down 1 cm to open. Watch the youtube clip above, it's hilarious.

Even if a GM or Ford gas car has more parts than a Tesla, GM and Ford have, what, almost 100 years of experience each engineering cars.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#184

Post by Robotbeat »

cjhopman wrote: post #182
Robotbeat wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. They originally planned to make 500,000 Teslas (including the Model 3) per year by 2020, and they'll almost certainly meet that. Aim for the Moon, and if you miss, you may still reach Mars.

2020? Just last year they said they'd do it by 2018.

Right, they ramped up expectations ridiculously high with the Model 3 unveiling, but before that and when Gigafactory was just being talked about (before official construction), they were talking about 500,000 cars per year by 2020.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#185

Post by agumonkey »

Robotbeat wrote: post #181
agumonkey wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, that's exactly the kind of shift I was thinking about. Now that said, I don't think Tesla is ready to do this, which would somehow prove old timers right. If Tesla managed to this bmw level of automation they'd be pushing enough cars to fulfill demands and keep investors. Later they'll make that 20% jump if Musk really wants to make a SpaceX kind of leap.

They are pushing enough cars, I think. One factory producing about 4000 cars per week is a very large factory, indeed! I think Tesla is continually thinking of ways to improve the design, develop new techniques that can be automated easier. And I don't think these are all making it into the Model 3. Some will need to wait until the Model Y or even later. For instance, apparently the Model Y will ditch the 12 volt bat…

from 1500m to 100m seems exciting

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#186

Post by rcMgD2BwE72F »

paulcole wrote: post #168
planetjones wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you read the biography? This point is specifically addressed by the author and the author also refused Musk the control he wanted e.g. in terms of a right of reply to all points in the book. Some of the book is very vivid in its portrayal of Musk’a flaws and others’ opinions of him.

> the author also refused Musk the control he wanted You can believe this if you want. But to me the author saying this isn't worth the paper it's printed on.

Did you read it?

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#187

Post by rcMgD2BwE72F »

ckastner wrote: post #5

> The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measurin…

The initial 2020 target was 500,000 cars (forecast made early 2016).

Today, they maintain a production target for 2020 of… 1M cars. Despite the delays.

They can achieve 50% of that goal and still be one of the best performing company in recent history. But you would probably insist that it's the biggest miss ever (only half the production target!).

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#188

Post by ucaetano »

decacorn wrote: post #159
jacquesm wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a problem that comes with operating at scale: yes, there are economies of scale, but they only work to your advantage when everything is running smoothly. When things are not running smoothly and you are for instance losing on every product sold those losses mount extremely rapidly. Car manufacturing is a scary undertaking for exactly that reason, especially in the Model 3 segment (where a certain amount of…

tesla does not lose money on model S or X.

It does.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4075701-tesla-closer-look-m...

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#189

Post by jacquesm »

ucaetano wrote: post #188
decacorn wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

tesla does not lose money on model S or X.

It does. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4075701-tesla-closer-look-m...

That's including R&D, which for a company that is relatively young is to be expected. GM1 is net positive though, and when people say 'X loses money on each item sold' they are typically talking about GM1, not about margins including R&D. This is important because the second depends very much on the number of items sold which one can not know until the run is over or a substantial number of years have passed. It's safe to say the VW beetle had it's R&D paid back fairly early on and that Tesla will take a bit longer (especially for their niche products) because there are simply fewer units to do the pay-back on. Even so, there is a fairly good reason to believe they will be OK on the Model S in the long run, will be about break even on the X and hopefully will end up making money on the Model 3 if they can deliver it in large enough numbers. Also important: the Model 3 R&D was to some extent paid for by the gross margins of the Model S, if not for that they would have had to receive even more outside capital.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#190

Post by ucaetano »

jacquesm wrote: post #189
ucaetano wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4075701-tesla-closer-look-m...

That's including R&D, which for a company that is relatively young is to be expected. GM1 is net positive though, and when people say 'X loses money on each item sold' they are typically talking about GM1, not about margins including R&D. This is important because the second depends very much on the number of items sold which one can not know until the run is over or a substantial number of years have passed. It's sa…

> when people say 'X loses money on each item sold' they are typically talking about GM1, not about margins including R&D

It depends on the industry.

Post reply on HN