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The Role of Luck in Life Success

blogs.scientificamerican.com

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Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#181

Post by marnett »

phs318u wrote: post #145
raleec wrote: post #94

Apologies in advance but I must confess.. I don't get it. Can someone define luck? -I didn't choose my DNA. -I didn't choose my parents. -I didn't choose my circumstances. -I didn't choose which neural pathways were reinforced based on my experiences. -I didn't choose which environmental factors altered any of my biological systems. -I didn't choose not to die in my sleep every night from an undiagnosed ailment. Remo…

I mostly agree with you. From 12-step programs, “Accept the things you cannot change. Change the things you can”. To my mind this means, accept the external circumstances you find yourself in - especially other people (since most can’t really exert sufficient force to change other people, at least not in a positive way), and work on changing your own reactions to the world. (This is a view that aligns with Stoic phil…

Do you recommend Aurelius or Seneca for Stoicism texts? I read a small amount of literature on Seneca and really fell in love with Stoicism.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#182

Post by yhavr »

Define luck. The Universe by definition isn't deterministic starting from three particles in classical mechanics and one particle in the quantum case. Define success. Is it doing what you like being surrounded by people you love? Or has it to be a mansion and a yacht?

Without proper definitions the entire discussion is useless.

For example, I state that I have already succeed not because of luck, but because of my free will. And all further improvements in my life will be just better grades of success. Argument 'if a raptor didn't kill that butterfly far far ago you would now be slave to the vicious Uganda Empire' doesn't fit, as it can by applied to every statement. Argument that I don't have a yacht doesn't fit, as "yachts are for loosers" and success isn't tied to material posessions.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#183

Post by lisper »

aje403 wrote: post #179
lisper wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The lucky part was that I joined the one startup that turned into the runaway success out of the many hundreds that were available to choose from at the time that failed. This was during the height of the first dotcom boom. Next Big Things were a dime a dozen.

You most likely earned the luck you received.

I am quite certain that is not the case.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#184

Post by z-combinator »

aje403 wrote: post #156
lisper wrote: post #108

I am financially independent and it is almost entirely due to luck. I was in a stable career as an AI researcher when, in 2000, pretty much on a whim, I decided to apply to work at an obscure little startup company called Google. It was the only startup I had ever applied to at that point (until then my ambition had been to become a university professor). Since 2005 I have participated as a principal in half a dozen…

You were an AI researcher in 2000 and decided to take a risk and join a startup, this is a very poor definition of luck. Luck does always belong in the conversation - "All great events hang by a hair, I believe in luck, and the wise man neglects nothing which contributes to his destiny"

Right but what are the odds of having had the life experiences that would lead to being a paid AI researcher in the early 2000s. How many people would have the luck and privilege to be in that niche field, be smart enough to be competitive and in the right network to get that job. That is the definition of luck. Only a small subset of people born in a particular window would even have a small chance. I'm sure lisper is a smart and hardworking person, but so are lots of people.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#185

Post by mtgex »

ThrowAway3456 wrote: post #124
mtgex wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many people deny this, so I think it is an important part of the higher conversation and inherently productive to discuss. People tend to think luck is heavily about positioning yourself to succeed. I think that's true, but I also believe that the most important factors to putting you in those lucky positions are not in your control. Someone who is not already born into a lucky position has to get even more lucky to…

> Many people deny this Maybe, but nobody brought it up before you did. >People tend to think luck is heavily about positioning >yourself to succeed. >I think that's true, but I also believe that the most >important factors to putting you in those lucky positions >are not in your control. >Someone who is not already born into a lucky position has >to get even more lucky to succeed. That we all agree on, what we disag…

I am having a civil discourse and did not intend to cause a polarization.

You cannot discuss luck and success in life without discussing race.

In no way did I suggest that people should want to change their race.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#186

Post by ABCLAW »

dasil003 wrote: post #84
vecinu wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is exactly what Malcom Gladwell talks about in Outliers: The Story of Success. He starts off by mentioning how hockey players have this age advantage since they are more physically mature than people born in other months and cut off by our artificially created system.

Makes sense for hockey players given the investment they need in development from a young age and how that investment is directly based on physical evaluation. For CEOs that pattern doesn't exist save perhaps in the mind of status-obsessed parents.

If you're the oldest individual in your elementary class, you've got ~11 months more development than your worst-off competitors. You carry that age advantage throughout every level of education you go through, allowing you differential access to awards, accolades, special opportunities, etc.

When development evens out following full development, you're already past the majority of the educational sorting mechanism - you've been scoring higher and formed by your experiences as a high performing student throughout.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#187

Post by dasil003 »

ABCLAW wrote: post #186
dasil003 wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Makes sense for hockey players given the investment they need in development from a young age and how that investment is directly based on physical evaluation. For CEOs that pattern doesn't exist save perhaps in the mind of status-obsessed parents.

If you're the oldest individual in your elementary class, you've got ~11 months more development than your worst-off competitors. You carry that age advantage throughout every level of education you go through, allowing you differential access to awards, accolades, special opportunities, etc. When development evens out following full development, you're already past the majority of the educational sorting mechanism -…

But in athletics you stop getting training and don't go to the next level if your performance is sub-par, so the effect is magnified.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#188

Post by lulmerchant »

lisper wrote: post #108

I am financially independent and it is almost entirely due to luck. I was in a stable career as an AI researcher when, in 2000, pretty much on a whim, I decided to apply to work at an obscure little startup company called Google. It was the only startup I had ever applied to at that point (until then my ambition had been to become a university professor). Since 2005 I have participated as a principal in half a dozen…

What you've described is essentially just a high risk strategy. Work at a bunch of different start ups, and hope that eventually you end up working for one that doesn't fail, and yields some returns.

The greatest predictors for success in life are industriousness and intelligence. Over time (and that's important, over time), the intelligent and industrious are expected to beat the odds, and achieve success. Ultimately there are so many outside forces in life that are beyond your control, that achieving success is always predicated on some level of luck. But eventually, smart and industrious people will rise higher than others. Life typically lasts for many years, you can blame luck if you want for any particular individual outcome (even though that's not entirely productive), but not for having a major influence on lifetime success.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#189

Post by heurist »

skookumchuck wrote: post #162
frgtpsswrdlame wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>That's a fine excuse for being a loser. When you get tired of that, however, you can always choose better. Insults are unnecessary. This kind of individualist, man-as-an-island concept is appealing but it isn't true. What are "you" made of that doesn't originate as something outside of your control? Of course it all was at the start, the way we get to feeling individualistic is by laundering our experiences, pretend…

So you take no responsibility for the choices you make. It's all someone else's fault, right? You're a hapless victim of the vicissitudes of life? You chose that fate. Me, I choose differently.

Your experiences led you to "choose" differently. I had the same, though it took a while. Not everyone has those same experiences.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#190

Post by mrkstu »

frgtpsswrdlame wrote: post #157
skookumchuck wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Your experiences is all there is, of course you're a slave to them That's a fine excuse for being a loser. When you get tired of that, however, you can always choose better.

>That's a fine excuse for being a loser. When you get tired of that, however, you can always choose better. Insults are unnecessary. This kind of individualist, man-as-an-island concept is appealing but it isn't true. What are "you" made of that doesn't originate as something outside of your control? Of course it all was at the start, the way we get to feeling individualistic is by laundering our experiences, pretend…

But of course, according to your narrative, his posting is the inevitable consequence of his genetics/environment/experiences to this point, so there is no point in trying to scold him for it.
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