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Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

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Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#181
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But as a store of value, it's actually pretty good. It's got a pretty short, volatile history to be deciding that.

Over the past ~7 years, the price has increased by ~10^5. There have been some bubbles, for sure. But all that has paled over the past year. The price could crash, certainly. Still, if futures become available, it could spike a lot higher before it does.

«the price has increased by ~10^5»

Actually more than 10^6: http://bitcoin.zorinaq.com/price/

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pump and dumpers gonna pump and dump. https://medium.com/@DEFCON_2015/why-mgt-was-delisted-from-ny...

Or, large investment banking houses will step in and create naked shorting opportunities to inflate sell pressure creating 'death spirals' to drive prices down and scoop them up and extreme discounts. This happens in the traditional public markets everyday.

> Or, large investment banking houses will step in and create naked shorting opportunities to inflate sell pressure creating 'death spirals' to drive prices down and scoop them up and extreme discounts. This happens in the traditional public markets everyday.

Is there a term for this?

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#183

My guess is that this is probably pretty meaningless. There are a few things going against them. - The CBOE and CME are both much larger futures exchanges and are going to be offering futures first - since you can't net out futures contracts from different exchanges this means they tend to become winner take all > One way Nasdaq seeks to differentiate itself seems to be in the amount of data it uses for pricing the d…

> One way Nasdaq seeks to differentiate itself seems to be in the amount of data it uses for pricing the digital currency contracts. VanEck Associates Corp., which recently withdrew plans for a bitcoin exchange-traded fund, will supply the data used to price the contracts, pulling figures from more than 50 sources, according to the person. That appears to exceed CME’s plan to use four sources, and Cboe’s one. Nasdaq’s contracts will be cleared by Options Clearing Corp., the person said.

BitMEX bitcoin futures are already online. IDK how many price sources they pull?

Aren't there a few other companies already selling Bitcoin futures?

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. But I already stated that in my response. We do not know the future and you shouldn't trust anyone who tells you differently. My point is that there have been skeptics and people saying it's a bubble or too volatile for nearly all of Bitcoin's history. But if you bought BTC and held it--at any high or low, for any significant amount of time--you made a lot of money (either realized or unrealized, that doesn't ma…

> But if you bought BTC and held it--at any high or low, for any significant amount of time--you made a lot of money (either realized or unrealized, that doesn't matter). This isn't entirely true. If you bought Bitcoin anywhere near the height of the late-2013 mania (which is of course a lot of people, since that's why the price was so high), you lost half your value within a month or two and then had to hold until 2…

Right. You would had to have bought and held until today for my claim to be true (and it is only true at the time I write this). But it's still the case that you could have bought in any peak or trough in the periods you're referring to and still have significant realized/unrealized gains right now.

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#186
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Do futures markets typically stabilize the price of a commodity? Kind of. It doesn't necessarily stabilize the prices of the commodity so much as allow the transferring of the risk associated with price movements. > Who loses out if a futures contract can't be fulfilled (for example due to lack of liquidity in the underlying market)? The exchange acting as the clearing house is on the other side of each contract so…

Does this mean that tons of money could be invested in these - let's say a trillion dollars going long on bitcoin via cash settled futures - and the underlying price wouldn't necessarily go up at all? I always thought the play with bitcoin was to wait until the "dumb money" got in via financial institutions. But if the whales are just betting on the real price with cash settled futures, does that mess up my assumptio…

The contracts would still involve real Bitcoin, the exchange would handle the Bitcoin side for the trader.

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#187
post #163

So here's a scheme that could be used to wildly profit in the fiat market. If you're what is considered a bitcoin "whale" holding millions worth of the currency you would just setup a short on bitcoin futures. Then you initiate a large sell from a well known whale wallet. This would trigger a large sell as stop losses are triggered. Profit then re-buy the dip.

Price wouldn’t drop unless you actually sold.

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pump and dumpers gonna pump and dump. https://medium.com/@DEFCON_2015/why-mgt-was-delisted-from-ny...

Or, large investment banking houses will step in and create naked shorting opportunities to inflate sell pressure creating 'death spirals' to drive prices down and scoop them up and extreme discounts. This happens in the traditional public markets everyday.

There is no such thing as an extreme discount for Bitcoin. I have yet to see anybody try to do a proper valuation for a Bitcoin to set a price target. If there were, institutional investors would buy in and its price in USD would stabilize nearly instantly.

No Bitcoin pumpers can give a proper value analysis because its actual value is something approaching 0. It has no use for which it is better than alternatives, even among cryptocurrencies. It is a classic bubble where people buy assuming that a greater fool will come along and buy at a higher price.

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#189
post #151
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've always been a negative detractor of bitcoin. But then I realized the problem was it was marketed wrong. As a currency, it's a nightmare of a creation. But as a store of value, it's actually pretty good. As long as you don't buy in at one of the speculative bubbles (which admittedly is when the majority of people get in), it's been pretty good at more or less maintaining its value. As a non-physical thing, it's a…

I think you're right. I think a lot of people hear "Digital Currency" and think 'something like Apple Pay', when Bitcoin's competition is closer to ACH/wire transfers. It's not a tech that everyone needs to use, and most people will pay an expert to use it for them. But if successful, could be a valuable medium for receiving payments from low-trust entities. For example, if a stock exchange accepted Bitcoin for fundi…

The reason things take days to clear is not because the underlying money moving rails are slow.

If/when your stock exchange starts accepting bitcoins, they may still continue to take days to clear things.

Re: Nasdaq Plans to Introduce Bitcoin Futures

#190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does this mean that tons of money could be invested in these - let's say a trillion dollars going long on bitcoin via cash settled futures - and the underlying price wouldn't necessarily go up at all? I always thought the play with bitcoin was to wait until the "dumb money" got in via financial institutions. But if the whales are just betting on the real price with cash settled futures, does that mess up my assumptio…

The contracts would still involve real Bitcoin, the exchange would handle the Bitcoin side for the trader.

So I buy a future for 1 bitcoin in 10 days with a price of $10k. The future is cash settled, so in 10 days the exchange will give me [price of BTC] - $10k, or I can sell the future before then. Where does the bitcoin come in? Is the exchange required to hold bitcoin = to the net of all futures?
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