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Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake

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Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake

#181
post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It only existed for 7 years, but some small fraction of cars are driven much more than others. Typical lifetime of a car is 15 years, so why are you surprised that some are driven 2x more than average? Of course there are many such cars, maybe whole 1% of those made in the first year - hundreds of them. That is not an extreme, one in a million case - one in a million case looks like this: http://www.tilburyautosales.…

https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-life-expectancy-of-a-Tesla-M... " Tesla Tech Talk (06/13) - Speaker's main points: 1) battery degrades everyday 2) battery degradation is non-linear over time; meaning it starts very very slow, but after 4-5 years, it gets faster 3) after the first 5 years, degradation may be as low as 5%. But by the 8th year, they expect about 30% degradation. " Batteries will without any doubt seriou…

https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/tesla-battery-degradation/?pr... from the same page

in 2013, there was no data to tell what happens after 8 years of typical use, first Model S was just a year old by then and even more intensely used ones didn't have that much use - 8 years of normal use equivalent. Now there are many of those that were driven beyond median lifetime of a vehicle.

Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake

#182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That wouldn't work for much of the South where summer usage for a house can easily hit 100 kWh/day for air conditioning. It should be noted that peak energy expenditure for air conditioning happens more or less at exactly the moment when the influx of energy from the Sun is also at its peak. That's, like, a gigantic hint that mother nature is dropping on you, hoping you'll notice it. The disease, and its cure, are…

From the grandparent's post: > "The hottest part of the day usually starts at about the end of the prime solar hours."

There's still significant overlap, it should be used.

Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake

#183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Wrong. At no point do you actually say what was wrong about what you quoted. What do you feel is in error? >GWh is static energy (or simply - energy). GW is energy moving from point A to point B, which is power. Yes, obviously. This is HN. Generally it pays to assume that people know what they are talking about around here. It may be that you don't care about the power rating of the storage instance, but a utility d…

> At no point do you actually say what was wrong about what you quoted. What do you feel is in error? The whole comment past that point is an explanation why that statement is wrong. Read it. You're clearly confused about the difference between power and energy. There's no meaningful discussion on this topic until you figure that out.

It is obvious from epistasis' comment that (s)he is fully aware of the difference between power and energy, and also that both are relevant properties to consider when designing an energy storage system.

Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake

#184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is there anything wrong with his assessment. Availability affects price, sure, but demand does equally so. Pretty sure lithium has higher demand than lead.

Lithium is a lot harder to produce than lead. That's certainly most of the price difference, regardless of abundance in the crust. But statements like this should really be talking about the "economically extractable ore", and it needs to include economic thresholds. There's a price curve there, and I suspect that for lithium it is a steep one because of how complicated its manufacturing is relative to lead. I don't…

Production of lithium from hard rock isn't very different from lead, and lithium production from brine is far easier.

Hard rock lithium is most commonly extracted in the form of spodumene which is about 6-7%[1] (8% when totally pure) lithium oxide. Rich lead ore may have 3-8% lead content. Obviously comparing the two is difficult since lead is about 20x denser, but they're on the same order of magnitude. As a ratio of rock in to metal out by volume there is probably a bit more lithium, but by mass lead ore is probably 2-3x more concentrated.

For both lead and spodumene, the ore is crushed, separated by density, ground, counditioned (treated with acid to remove organics/slime), froth float separated, cleaned, filtered and dried[2]. That gives you metal that is ready to be reduced in a furnace (or electrolytically or chemically, for lithium). Both processes use the exact same machinery and chemicals (sulfuric and hydroflouric acid, and NaOH). Both processes are almost identical except that the lithium is collected at the low-density end and lead is collected at the high-density end.

Brine production is much easier and involves a well, a pump, a bulldozer and a bunch of sodium carbonate (water softener)[3]. It is significantly cheaper than any other metal production method, as well as low-energy, low-waste and low-impact. The only downside is there is a lot of water loss to evaporation. It's a relatively small amount of water, especially compared to a farm of the same size, but brine mines exist exclusively in places without much water to start with (otherwise the brine would have washed into the ocean already). It's a tradeoff.

Regardless, the difficulty in producing lithium is most certainly not most of the price difference. First, annual global lithium production is ~36,000 tonnes vs 5 million tonnes for lead, a 140x difference. Lithium's lower density could account for a 2-3x price per tonne difference, but it is vastly more likely that economies of scale are the culprit.

Not only that, but the current lithium price surge is entirely due to market contraction. It takes 2-3 years to build a mine, and longer to decide to build one. Tesla wrecked the battery market in less than two years, becoming the largest battery consumer. There simply hasn't been time to open new mines yet. The prices will drop as soon as they catch up.

Finally, the majority of lead is produced by recycling. That 5 million tonnes mined each year is less than 50% of all lead. The recycling industry obviously drops the price of lead immensely, and lithium will take advantage of recycling too, when and if it ever needs to.

>But statements like this should really be talking about the "economically extractable ore"

There is no such thing, really. Not even for oil. The content of the ground is not mapped that well. As soon as people go looking for lithium, the reserves will skyrocket just like they did with oil. Trust the crustal content more than the global reserves. Lithium is so cheap and ubiquitous that nobody has gone looking for it since the 50s- Seriously, that's the last time the USGS did a survey of US lithium supplies.

>I'm much more worried about rare earths.

Don't be. They're only used in hybrid cars (neodymium) and even then they aren't needed. You don't need magnets to make a motor, just steel and copper. The other green use for rare earths (tellurium) is in thin-film solar panels, which make up 5% of all solar panel production. Rare earth elements aren't even the first choice for these technologies, and a contraction in supply will push them out of favor entirely. Seriously, the only reason we use thin-film solar is because it's cheap, even though it's less efficient. If it's not cheap, then we won't use it at all. Good riddance.

[1]: http://encyclopedia2.thefreedictionary.com/Lithium+Ores

[2]: https://www.911metallurgist.com/blog/froth-flotation-spodume... [3]: https://www.thebalance.com/lithium-production-2340123

Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake

#185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lithium is a lot harder to produce than lead. That's certainly most of the price difference, regardless of abundance in the crust. But statements like this should really be talking about the "economically extractable ore", and it needs to include economic thresholds. There's a price curve there, and I suspect that for lithium it is a steep one because of how complicated its manufacturing is relative to lead. I don't…

Production of lithium from hard rock isn't very different from lead, and lithium production from brine is far easier. Hard rock lithium is most commonly extracted in the form of spodumene which is about 6-7%[1] (8% when totally pure) lithium oxide. Rich lead ore may have 3-8% lead content. Obviously comparing the two is difficult since lead is about 20x denser, but they're on the same order of magnitude. As a ratio o…

Thanks for the fantastic post!

My rare earth worries are based on this DOE report:

https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/edg/news/documents/criti...

It actually calls out dysprosium as the biggest problem, with neodymium, terbium, europium, yttrium, and indium as the next biggest worries.

This is fairly old though, I read it back in 2010. I've read about a number of breakthroughs on higher strength-to-weight magnetic materials and I'm sure solar has responded to this report accordingly as well. It's comforting to know that things seem to have worked out seven years later!

I think a lot of the stress in 2010 was because China was limiting exports and it became clear that the USA was at a strategic disadvantage because of vulnerability to Chinese actions. Glad that Obama took it so seriously by supporting funding to develop those new technologies.

Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake

#186
post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-life-expectancy-of-a-Tesla-M... " Tesla Tech Talk (06/13) - Speaker's main points: 1) battery degrades everyday 2) battery degradation is non-linear over time; meaning it starts very very slow, but after 4-5 years, it gets faster 3) after the first 5 years, degradation may be as low as 5%. But by the 8th year, they expect about 30% degradation. " Batteries will without any doubt seriou…

https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/tesla-battery-degradation/?pr... from the same page in 2013, there was no data to tell what happens after 8 years of typical use, first Model S was just a year old by then and even more intensely used ones didn't have that much use - 8 years of normal use equivalent. Now there are many of those that were driven beyond median lifetime of a vehicle.

I have no idea what to make of the claim that no further degradation is expected. It's not like batteries are a new not understood technology, batteries don't behave like that.

Is that an ad?

It is expected for the capacity to drop off significantly with age. The main weapon tesla has used against this is good cooling and sensible charging patterns, but that is just stalling the inevitable.

Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't lithium-ion batteries degrade extremely quickly, though? Won't these all be down to half capacity or so within a decade? Is it really worth investing in gargantuan quantities of energy storage if they need to be replaced every few years? I'd be eyeing EDLC technologies or something like molten salts over giant stationary phone/laptop/car/etc batteries.

Li-ion batteries have the second slowest self-discharge of any battery and the longest cycle life/easiest upkeep. An li-ion battery will do about 500 discharge cycles from 0-100. They'll do several thousand from 20-80, and tens of thousands cycles from 30-70%. If you have a few days of storage, the battery as a whole will last an incredibly long time even when cycled every day. As for why: When the battery is kept at…

Huh, interesting. You learn something new every day, thanks!
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