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Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

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Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#181

Post by aedron »

tokipin wrote: post #155
paulpauper wrote: post #20

People who lose money shorting Tesla are losing their shirts for the same reason as those who shorted Amazon: cash flow + growth matters more than profitability, PE ratios, or EPS. Tesla's car business is cash flow positive but the quarterly losses are due to infrastructure investments. This is how finance can be more subtle than meets the eye. Tesla's car business is very profitable: Tesla also reported an automotiv…

The stock is fascinating to watch because of how binary the perception of the company is. After doing some sophisticated psychoanalysis™, the sharpest distinction I've found between the two opposing viewpoints is design. People who don't understand Tesla tend to be the same people who didn't (and still don't) understand the iPhone. For these people, the Model S is just another car, in the same way that the iPhone wou…

You can't say that a Tesla car represents technology innovation to the same degree the iPhone did. Nothing in a Tesla is technologically groundbreaking, it is more of a product innovation (a high-powered electric car) with good execution.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#182

Post by patrickk »

usrusr wrote: post #178
mstachowiak wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would propose viewing Tesla as an energy storage company, not a car company (JB and Elon both think of Tesla this way). The car is a battery on wheels, and the battery is the product. They're not trying to be the next BMW, and attempts to value them through this lense will miss the mark.

How high is their current valuation relative to other energy storage companies? (Honestly, I don't know)

Another way to look at it: how big is the global market for gas peaker plants? If current trends continue, solar PV + batteries will be cheaper at some point than any fossil fuel[1], so at that point Telsa energy will begin to consume large chunks of that market.

According to this link[2] gas peaker plans were 50% of energy installs in 2013, the best link I could find from a quick search.

[1] Interesting talk on this topic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxryv2XrnqM

[2] http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=15751

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#183

Post by patrickk »

linkregister wrote: post #159
erikpukinskis wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I can see a world where consumer decide to purchase cars based on their technology and charger networks alone Once there's an autonomous driver it's really just about the cabin accoutrements.

Safety? Reliability? Cost? Maintenance burden? Maybe some other stuff too.

Since batteries are the single most expensive component currently, knowledge and IP around batteries will be important in areas such as:

* using clever techniques to stretch the life of batteries

* keeping them in good condition in extreme weather

* keeping them cool

* keeping them safe in an accident

Telsa is figuring all this out much earlier and at bigger scale than most other manufacturers. They can sell their knowledge to other car companies once the Gigafactories start churning out large quantities of batteries.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#184

Post by whiskers08xmt »

arijun wrote: post #176
j7ake wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're still making a bet that Tesla will become a top 3 car company in the world. At the moment people there are people who think the price to risk is worth it. Some do not think it's worth it. I would say there are better ways to make money than a 50 percent chance to make 20 percent more. Also these predictions are 10+ years in the future. How often have people actually predicted that far from the future? Almost n…

Remember though that Tesla will no longer be just a car company. The battery market is huge and will only get bigger as utility scale projects boost demand (like the 80MW one in Southern California Tesla just installed), and if residential solar takes off, solar city stands to make a decent amount of money.

And as solar gets cheaper and cheaper, there's only going to be more incentive to install batteries.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#185

Post by elmar »

paulpauper wrote: post #20

People who lose money shorting Tesla are losing their shirts for the same reason as those who shorted Amazon: cash flow + growth matters more than profitability, PE ratios, or EPS. Tesla's car business is cash flow positive but the quarterly losses are due to infrastructure investments. This is how finance can be more subtle than meets the eye. Tesla's car business is very profitable: Tesla also reported an automotiv…

Personally i think the fundamental problem is that Tesla stock is mispriced, Tesla is being compared to other car manufacturers when it should be compared with tech stocks. If you read this article http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-driverless-ridesharing-... you clearly see that Tesla will be competing for the same on-demand transport market of Uber with the big advantage of having a proprietary hardware platform.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#186

Post by whiskers08xmt »

peripitea wrote: post #135
mdasen wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shorting seems to often be about the short-term prospects of the stock. Long term, Tesla looks like it will be a reasonable company. But will it justify its stock price? Tesla is a $45B company right now. Toyota is $188B (4.1x more valuable), VW is $78B (1.7x), GM is $58B (1.3x), Ford is $51B (1.1x), Nissan is $42B (0.9x), Fiat Chrysler is $17B (0.4x), Honda is $58B (1.3x), BMW is $56B (1.2x), Daimler is $79B (1.8x),…

Isn't part of the calculation that Tesla could be unlike any car company before? I'm sure that if you just calculated the probability-weighted value of them landing somewhere in the mix of the current auto players, they would be overvalued. But there's also a non-zero probability that they turn into something that transcends the auto industry. I suspect a lot of their current valuation comes from that.

Absolutely, the car industry is entering a period of major disruption, both through electricfication, self-driving and ride sharing. My guess is that the demand for the first level 5 self-driving vehicles is going to be insanely high. It wouldn't surprise me, if they could be sold with a profit margin of 100%+, or rolled into a ridesharing service alá uber, where Tesla owners can share their ride, while Tesla takes a nice piece of the pie.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#187

Post by _pmf_ »

mdasen wrote: post #97
paulpauper wrote: post #20

People who lose money shorting Tesla are losing their shirts for the same reason as those who shorted Amazon: cash flow + growth matters more than profitability, PE ratios, or EPS. Tesla's car business is cash flow positive but the quarterly losses are due to infrastructure investments. This is how finance can be more subtle than meets the eye. Tesla's car business is very profitable: Tesla also reported an automotiv…

Shorting seems to often be about the short-term prospects of the stock. Long term, Tesla looks like it will be a reasonable company. But will it justify its stock price? Tesla is a $45B company right now. Toyota is $188B (4.1x more valuable), VW is $78B (1.7x), GM is $58B (1.3x), Ford is $51B (1.1x), Nissan is $42B (0.9x), Fiat Chrysler is $17B (0.4x), Honda is $58B (1.3x), BMW is $56B (1.2x), Daimler is $79B (1.8x),…

> The world would be better if Tesla became the next BMW.

BMW is the next BMW; they are fully capable of ramping up their EV line, it just does not make sense at the moment, since they generate more profit producing gas guzzlers. Tesla has done tremendous things related to the charging infrastructure, but their exclusivity regarding high-end EV vehicles itself is just imaginary.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#188

Post by dagw »

j7ake wrote: post #164
crabasa wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Toyota's profits are real. GM's profits are real. BMW's profits are real. Tesla's profits might be great in the future - and that risk means the potential profits are worth less than actual profits. You have this exactly backwards. For instance, you could have made the exact same argument about Walmart versus Amazon. What you're missing is that the investments that Tesla is making, which hurt short-term profitabili…

You're still making a bet that Tesla will become a top 3 car company in the world. At the moment people there are people who think the price to risk is worth it. Some do not think it's worth it. I would say there are better ways to make money than a 50 percent chance to make 20 percent more. Also these predictions are 10+ years in the future. How often have people actually predicted that far from the future? Almost n…

You're still making a bet that Tesla will become a top 3 car company in the world.

Or that they will sell/license batteries and technology to the top 3 car companies in the world.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#189

Post by pakitan »

paulpauper wrote: post #20

People who lose money shorting Tesla are losing their shirts for the same reason as those who shorted Amazon: cash flow + growth matters more than profitability, PE ratios, or EPS. Tesla's car business is cash flow positive but the quarterly losses are due to infrastructure investments. This is how finance can be more subtle than meets the eye. Tesla's car business is very profitable: Tesla also reported an automotiv…

> Tesla's car business is very profitable

No, it isn't. Gross margin isn't profit.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#190

Post by adwn »

lawnchair_larry wrote: post #138
dingo_bat wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> He is the least terrible billionaire industrialist IMHO. I'd say Bill gates still retains that title.

You must be young.

> You must be young.

This is condescending and not constructive. You should know better than to post like this on HN.

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