Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are you really asking that?
[deleted]
So yes, you're really joking.
July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded
181–190 of 211 posts
Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded
#182I would really like to see a graph of the mean temperature of the hottest month in each year, so we can see how this trend compares to noise.
It's difficult even with that. The mean temperature is calculated via inference (obviously you can't have a thermometer everywhere). And there's occasional adjustments to how the global temp. is inferred. The NOAA recently did one [0]. They have a nice comparison list of the ten warmest years [1]. [0] http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2015/5/supplemental/pag... [1] http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2015/5/suppl…
That's interesting, should be hard to not introduce a systematic error.
Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded
#183This is to be expected during an El Nino year. Let's see how big it gets!
Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded
#184Earlier quoted context omitted.
Daily records at a point are completely irrelevant to this discussion. The fact that points set multiple daily records per year has no bearing whatsoever on the significance, or lack thereof, of a monthly, global record. You're right of course, that a single record high is not compelling. Even when it's a global, monthly record high. My point in my original reply is that pointing this out is irrelevant and annoying.…
The fact that points set multiple daily records per year has no bearing whatsoever on the significance, or lack thereof, of a monthly, global record. Exactly the same principle applies. Look at the title of this submission. Stop and before you knee-jerk a response, contemplate that this isn't "it's hot, yo, and getting hotter". It is specifically that July was the hottest month "ever recorded", which someone quite ri…
The exact same principle applies, yes. But the quantities are way different.
Variation at a point is high. Variation for a period of a single day is high. Samples are taken frequently. Thus new records will be set regularly.
Variation for the entire globe is low. Variation for a period of an entire month is low. There are twelve samples per year. Thus new records would not be expected to be set frequently.
Again, what exactly is your point?
Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded
#185Earlier quoted context omitted.
What we should do is transition away from fossil fuels as quickly as is reasonably possible. Not simply pull them all at once, because that won't help anything as you say, but start moving smartly in that direction. Fortunately we already are, even if not as quickly as we'd like. I think in the next few years we'll see rapid change as solar panels and batteries become cheap enough to compete with traditional energy o…
Thanks for the thoughtful comment. As for this point: >I think in the next few years we'll see rapid change as solar panels and batteries become cheap enough to compete with traditional energy on their own terms. I'm unsure how the recent slide in oil prices is effecting the comparative competitiveness of fossils vs. renewables. Not helpful, I imagine.
When it comes to electricity generation, I don't think oil prices affect it much. Oil isn't cost competitive for electricity as it stands.
The fall in natural gas prices is affecting it, since natural gas is competitive for electrical generation. But coal still rules when it comes to cheap electricity, as long as you ignore the externalities of course.
I think what's going to happen is that pretty soon, solar plus storage will be price competitive even with coal. Then there will be a big shift. It's unlikely that the price of coal will drop much.
Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded
#186Earlier quoted context omitted.
To be honest, and this is my opinion only, but 2-3 day forcasts, at least in my area, are horribly inaccurate . In my state, it's a common joke that being a meteorologist is the only job you can have where you can be wrong 95% of the time, and still keep your job. Seriously, our forecasts are nearly always wrong. So.....saying we can make as accurate of forecasts for 200 years ago...that's not really saying much. Thi…
Yes, weather forecasting is hard - that's why there's lots of research into 'aftcasts'. If we can learn to make better predictions while limiting the data we take in, we can make big improvements to the accuracy of modern forecasts. You can make fun of meteorologists if you want, but they are not wrong 95% of the time. In fact, over the last 20 years the accuracy of predictions has gone WAY up on average. There are s…
I'm not trying to make fun of meteorologists at all, I totally get that your job is hard. I actually wanted to take the same approach (My company provides lunch for employees, I wanted to train a neural net on past lunch menus, and trading/derivative market data for food type resources, to see if it could predict tomorrows menu), unfortunately that was shot down, so I never got the chance to do something like that.
If it came off as me trying to be down on meteorologists, that wasn't my intent, and I can't edit my original post to reflect that, so hopefully you'll see my comment here.
Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded
#187Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's difficult even with that. The mean temperature is calculated via inference (obviously you can't have a thermometer everywhere). And there's occasional adjustments to how the global temp. is inferred. The NOAA recently did one [0]. They have a nice comparison list of the ten warmest years [1]. [0] http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2015/5/supplemental/pag... [1] http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2015/5/suppl…
That's interesting, should be hard to not introduce a systematic error.
That's why I prefer the data from satellite measurements.
There's a couple for surface temperature at http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/ & http://www.remss.com/measurements/upper-air-temperature.
Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded
#188Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded
#189Earlier quoted context omitted.
By "conservative rhetoric" I assume you mean the only scientifically provable stance that there is on the issue.
It's widely accepted in the scientific that specific occurrences such as the ozone hole above Antarctica are created as a result of human activity in the past 50 years.
Please state your politically-neutral, credible, scientific source for this comment.
Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded
#190I find it continually amazing how many people find NASA sending rockets into space all the time to be an expected and everyday part of modern life, but then don't trust them with a thermometer.
Re: NOAA, not NASA, but it's because of articles like this:
http://www.realclearpolicy.com/blog/2015/08/20/the_latest_cl...
When confronted with an obviously broken weather station that was reading way too hot, they replaced the faulty sensor — but refused to adjust the bad readings it had already taken. And when dealing with "the pause" in global surface temperatures that is in its 19th year, the agency threw away satellite-sensed sea-surface temperatures, substituting questionable data that showed no pause.