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The Really Big One

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171–180 of 286 posts

Re: The Really Big One

#171
"The Cascadia subduction zone stretches from Cape Mendocino in northern California to Brooks Peninsula on Vancouver Island in British Columbia, a distance of about 700 miles (1,130 km). All along this zone, which begins beneath the seafloor to the west and extends inland towards the Cascade and Coastal mountains, the subducting plates are forced beneath the North American Plate. At a relatively shallow depth (less than about 20 miles/30 km down), the plates have become stuck. Below this locked zone, warmer temperatures make the plates more pliable, allowing them to move more readily past each other. This freer movement deeper down causes strain to accumulate along the locked zone. Once that strain is great enough to overcome the friction that keeps the plates locked, the fault will rupture: the edge of the North American Plate will lurch suddenly upwards and southwestwards as the subducting plates slip under and northeastwards. With this movement, the deformed western edge of the North American Plate will flex, causing the land along large sections of Cascadia" [0]

Also check the diagram(s) for a better understanding.

[0]http://crew.org/sites/default/files/cascadia_subduction_scen...

Re: The Really Big One

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, my understanding from what you wrote is that it may indeed be possible to slowly release the accumulated pressure, but we don't really understand how that occurs naturally yet, let alone how to trigger it artificially.

Given the regularity of previous large quakes, and the fact that the described magnitude 6 quake takes place over a month, it would take longer to relieve the pressure via month-long magnitude 6 quakes than we have until the next large quake. Best case scenario - you could put it off for a few dozen years.

Even if you could relieve some of the pressure, you could theoretically make the big one less intense. It sounds like we're not even remotely close to being able to do it in practice though. (Although if we were, there's no reason why the described magnitude 6 over a month would be a limit.)

Re: The Really Big One

#173
post #27

I used to live in Portland, and thought about this impending catastrophe a lot. Once -- under the influence of intoxicants, most likely -- I came up with a way of dramatically reducing its impact. It's a batshit crazy solution which will never actually happen -- but even when I'm sober, I still think it would work. Here's what I'm thinking: the major problem with a disaster like this is the uncertainty surrounding it…

If you are now fully retrofitted to survive a 9.0, why do we absolutely have to set off this earthquake now using hundreds of nuclear bombs?

The point was that many optimizations can be made if you make the quake happen at a specific time of day.

Re: The Really Big One

#175

I was in New Orleans in October 2002, and this guy was on the front page of the main newspaper predicting that within 20 years a category 5 hurricane was likely to whip around Florida and strike the city head on. He said the levies weren't high or strong enough, and that downtown New Orleans would be under 20 feet of water: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/earth/predicting-katrina.html I remember reading it with interest…

Shocking really. Curious to hear rationale from someone that knew about the odds before moving to the PNW.

Re: The Really Big One

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are now fully retrofitted to survive a 9.0, why do we absolutely have to set off this earthquake now using hundreds of nuclear bombs?

The point was that many optimizations can be made if you make the quake happen at a specific time of day.

My point is that you can perform all of those optimizations and still not make the quake happen (since all of the optimizations seem to be occurring before the quake).

Re: The Really Big One

#177

I was in New Orleans in October 2002, and this guy was on the front page of the main newspaper predicting that within 20 years a category 5 hurricane was likely to whip around Florida and strike the city head on. He said the levies weren't high or strong enough, and that downtown New Orleans would be under 20 feet of water: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/earth/predicting-katrina.html I remember reading it with interest…

Lots of people predict lots of catastrophes. The trick is identifying the correct ones ahead of time. This is much more difficult than you are implying.

Re: The Really Big One

#178
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not only would there be significant downtime of major internet services, but lots of people would die as well!

Downtime of major internet services could also cause deaths elsewhere, as more industries become reliant on cloud services. I could imagine hospitals losing access to health records, emergency responders losing access to mapping or route planning software, people losing access to Uber and not being able to get to the hospital because the taxi companies have gone out of business. Of course all this stuff is supposed t…

like Uber, but for once-in-an-epoch natural disasters

Re: The Really Big One

#179
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not only would there be significant downtime of major internet services, but lots of people would die as well!

Downtime of major internet services could also cause deaths elsewhere, as more industries become reliant on cloud services. I could imagine hospitals losing access to health records, emergency responders losing access to mapping or route planning software, people losing access to Uber and not being able to get to the hospital because the taxi companies have gone out of business. Of course all this stuff is supposed t…

like Uber, but for once-in-an-epoch natural disasters

Re: The Really Big One

#180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remembering a lot of the video from Japan, it looked like most of videos were from people who went into parking garages (concrete)[1]. Regular buildings took a pretty big hit, but I'm not sure how the local building code / materials played in that. 1) I'm going with the logic that surviving video person uploading to youtube is probably a good sample of the "worked" side of the equation.

I suppose parking garages would let a lot of the water flow through the open sides, whereas a regular building would receive a lot of force against the exterior walls.

Probably, and they are designed for a higher weight load than a regular building.
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