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Stellar Wind (code name)

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Re: Stellar Wind (code name)

#171
post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Certainly. My point is that the cost of farm land in non-populated areas is minor.

expect for the oil boom driving up land prices in non-populated areas. $9,000 is really a low figure these days.

I wrote "The cost of farm land seems to be around $9000/acre, and certainly under $20,000/acre."

If you're talking about oil land, then that's not really farm land, is it? It's obvious that land with good mineral/oil rights can be worth a lot more.

In any case, oil doesn't seem like a good example. A derrick and pump don't need much in the way of land, and slant drilling means that any really expensive land can be avoided. I see prices in North Dakota of 'certainly under $20,000', even in that oil boom state:

"Linda Fisher, a Land Department leasing coordinator, said the three quarterly sales [in 2010] have fetched a record $269.2 million for about 135,000 acres, compared with about $103 million for 137,800 acres for all of 2009." (http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700059300/ND-oil-lease-au... ). That's an average of about $2,000/acre, though the boom has continued since then.

"At about the same time, records and interviews show, other companies were purchasing drilling rights to land on and near the reservation for $300 to $1,000 per acre plus royalties as high as 22.5 percent.... Two lawsuits allege that by buying Dakota-3, Williams effectively paid more than $10,000 per acre for those rights." (http://www.opb.org/news/article/land-grab-cheats-north-dakot...; )

I haven't found anything which says that $9,000/acre for oil land is "really a low figure these days." If anything, that seems to be only somewhat below the going rate.

On the other hand, it is high compared to non-irrigated farm land, which goes for no more than $3,000/acre for the most expensive county average in North Dakota. (The value in most counties is usually under $1,000/acre.)

So, where is this $20,000+/acre land you're talking about?

Re: Stellar Wind (code name)

#172
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't need to think anything about Binney's motives to reason about the possible scope of surveillance on IP traffic. Based on what you'd have to do to capture foreign traffic as opposed to US traffic it makes sense that the Room 641A sites are intended to capture foreign traffic. All the public information supports this. There isn't any public disclosure of the type of infrastructure needed to comprehensively moni…

So I'm confused: are you accusing William Binney of lying, or do you just think he doesn't understand Stellar Wind as well as you do? To reiterate: William Binney's allegations are that the NSA had the opportunity to intercept (and I mean in the Webster's sense, not the USSID 18 sense) only foreign traffic by putting these taps specifically on fiber entering the country, but they elected to spy on domestic traffic an…

I'm doing neither. I'm saying that nothing Binney has said or that has been leaked thus far shows evidence of a program that is designed to comprehensively intercept internet traffic between US persons and that doing so covertly is technically and politically impossible because of the number of intercept points required, not because they lack the software (we know it exists via Binney), or have a place to store it (they do-in Utah).

Putting taps on undersea cables is risky. Cables are closely monitored and quite frequently are owned by multi-country consortiums so if you don't want a party to the consortium to find out you might not want to stick a tap in the landing station. Also, you might only care about public IP traffic and not want to see piles of corporate MPLS traffic. I'm not saying that's what happened, just that there are valid reasons why tapping fiber coming into the country wouldn't be desirable.

It is entirely possible that you are claiming a "there exists" and I'm arguing against a "for every". I'm sure we both agree that there exists a NSA program that happens to intercept some US traffic. That's what Binney and others have claimed. I'm arguing that going beyond that isn't supported by the leaks OR the nature of the internet.

I run operations at small regional Tier 2 ISP/transport provider with 25 provider edges on that AS graph that I mentioned before. I've personally installed, repaired, or inspected all cable and gear that 12 of those links traverse end to end and there weren't any secret spy boxes. So, no, I'm not just guessing. I can guarantee that quite a few people aren't having their bits snarfed wholesale when they email (local ISP mail to school mail), post on locally hosted community forums, or reserve a book at their local library.

My network may be too small to matter, but any comprehensive intercept regime would require myself and every other Tier 2 (transit + unpaid peering) ISP to cooperate.

Re: Stellar Wind (code name)

#173
post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

expect for the oil boom driving up land prices in non-populated areas. $9,000 is really a low figure these days.

I wrote "The cost of farm land seems to be around $9000/acre, and certainly under $20,000/acre." If you're talking about oil land, then that's not really farm land, is it? It's obvious that land with good mineral/oil rights can be worth a lot more. In any case, oil doesn't seem like a good example. A derrick and pump don't need much in the way of land, and slant drilling means that any really expensive land can be av…

Oil land is farm land, what is under doesn't affect farming. I've seen 30k in western ND. Back, to the original point of the original poster, the land isn't dirt cheap.

Re: Stellar Wind (code name)

#174
post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wrote "The cost of farm land seems to be around $9000/acre, and certainly under $20,000/acre." If you're talking about oil land, then that's not really farm land, is it? It's obvious that land with good mineral/oil rights can be worth a lot more. In any case, oil doesn't seem like a good example. A derrick and pump don't need much in the way of land, and slant drilling means that any really expensive land can be av…

Oil land is farm land, what is under doesn't affect farming. I've seen 30k in western ND. Back, to the original point of the original poster, the land isn't dirt cheap.

I'm confused now, to the point where I don't understand why you are commenting.

The topic asked about "bearings on constructing the new data center in Utah".

This specific branch started with "Low population density is almost redundant with "Cheap land"'. You said 'Not is the case where resources are found under said land or the land is farm land.'

That's two different cases: 1) resources are found under said land, and 2) said land is farm land.

I pointed out that category #2, "farm land", is generally not expensive compared to the price of building a data center. There are places where farm land costs $100,000/acre, but those are also places with high population density. Hence, I am in complete agreement with the statement that "low population density is almost redundant with farm land that doesn't have resources under said land."

You continue to talk about land which is in both category #1 and category #2. But that is not what my comment is about, and I never meant to imply that.

However, when I research it, I find that oil lands are not enough to greatly affect land which is both farm land and oil land. (BTW, not all farm land is oil land, and not all oil land is farm land.) I therefore would like more than your un-attributed claim that there is cropland going for $30K/acre in ND. The only examples I can find are for places which also have buildings on the land, which are included in the price.

I think would be misleading to include a $80,000 home on 5 acres of land for a total price of $100,00 as meaning that the land itself is worth $20,000 per acre. That isn't the situation we're discussing, since few would spend $100,00 on 5 acres with a house, only to tear down the house to build a data center, if 5 acres of land are available nearby for only $20,000.

I say these prices with some certainty having looked at news releases like http://www.ag.ndsu.edu/news/newsreleases/2013/april-1-2013/n... , which says:

"North Dakota cropland values increased by about 42 percent during 2012, according to Andrew Swenson, North Dakota State University Extension Service farm management specialist. ... The drivers that have pushed land values have been well-documented. Grain prices from 2007 to the present have been much higher than any year prior to 2007. Also, yields generally have been strong. For example, the three highest wheat yields ever have occurred within the past four years. This combination has provided several years of strong profit for crop producers, which has fueled their financial ability and desire to buy land. ... A factor that has been just as important in driving land values has been low interest rates. Interest rates to finance land purchases are attractive, while returns and confidence on alternative investments have been weak."

You'll notice that oil is not mentioned in that list as a major factor affecting farm prices.

That document also links to a PDF showing "the average per-acre values of cropland in North Dakota from 2007 to 2013." The highest average prices are in the South Red River Valley at just under $4,200 per acre. In western ND the highest average prices are $1,500/acre.

These numbers are so far from $30K that your $30K number must be an unusual outlier. It's certainly not high enough to affect someone's decision to build a data center in western ND.

Please provide some evidence which confirms your understanding.

Re: Stellar Wind (code name)

#175
post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wrote "The cost of farm land seems to be around $9000/acre, and certainly under $20,000/acre." If you're talking about oil land, then that's not really farm land, is it? It's obvious that land with good mineral/oil rights can be worth a lot more. In any case, oil doesn't seem like a good example. A derrick and pump don't need much in the way of land, and slant drilling means that any really expensive land can be av…

Oil land is farm land, what is under doesn't affect farming. I've seen 30k in western ND. Back, to the original point of the original poster, the land isn't dirt cheap.

Yes, some oil land is farm land. Some oil wells are on urban land, including in a shopping mall in L.A. Some are on grazing land. Some are in desert. Some are on the tundra. Not much farming goes on at the edge of the Beaufort Sea.

Compared to the price of the data center, where the building alone costs $2 million to construct, $30K/acre is dirt cheap.

And I still don't believe you about the price of land. It must have been an extreme outlier, since I can't find any advertisements, any government reports, or anything else which agrees with you.

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