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The turbulent AI era is here

gatesnotes.com

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Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#171

Post by marcus_holmes »

bko wrote: post #160
gyomu wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> social change caught up and imposed a more equitable distribution of the dividends. That’s a very nice way to say “the workers put the fear of God in the heart of capital owners, and lots of people died” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Railroad_Strike_of_1877 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canut_revolts https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asturian_Revolution_of_1934 etc.

I think it's more competition for labor. Why is anyone paid above minimum wage? It's not through charity or "fear" that employees will revolt. It's that there's competition for that labor. Suppose a worker is worth $20 per hour to a capitalist. How much should they pay? As little as possible, sure, but anything up to $20 per hour is worth it. You'll hire up to that point to maximize profit. Suppose you hand somewhere…

This breaks down if there is less competition for labour, and we enter a new Depression era. Under your logic, capitalists will pay nearly nothing for labour because there is so much of it. Then "society" has to step in and not-so-gently point out that these are people we're talking about, and they need things like dignity, time off, good health, good working conditions, as well as money.

We have to remember that people are the point of the economy: the economy exists to provide for all the people, people don't exist to be economic assets. There is a tendency for capitalists to forget this, and then we have to prod them with pitchforks to remind them.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#172

Post by marcus_holmes »

beloch wrote: post #168
bryan0 wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One look at who is in the driver's seat should give you the answer to this question. I think you are fundamentally misunderstanding the question Gates is asking here. He’s not asking “how this going to play out?”, he’s asking “how can we impact how this will play out?” He makes specific proposals like AI token and robot taxes. I just wish people being cynical would at least comment on possible solutions. I think AI…

Is it cynical, or simply realistic, to recognize that AI CEO's won't ask for this kind of policy, and governments won't force anything upon the AI sector until things get very bad ? That, in my view, is a much bigger problem. We know what's coming but we won't do anything about it until after a lot of suffering occurs. Why can't we be more proactive?

This is Gates' point, isn't it? We need to be more proactive, and he has suggestions for what to do now, before the bad times.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#173

Post by marcus_holmes »

lukeschlather wrote: post #15

If AI is really that powerful, shouldn't someone like Gates be able to end hunger and homelessness with a one-time capital expenditure? Somehow "give people jobs" is the primary problem he wants to solve, not ending poverty. It borderline seems like he's most worried about maintaining the working poor as a valuable societal institution.

What if there are no more "jobs"?

What if he's right, and AI+Robots can do everything?

We still need to provide for all the humans. We will need to come up with a new system of distributing the world's resources that doesn't depend on "jobs" and allows the world's population access to the resources they need to live.

That's going to be very difficult, in the "we have to have a war about this" sense, traditionally.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#174

Post by mcnichol »

corv wrote: post #156
mcnichol wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can indulge the hypothetical and I appreciate your openness to engage in both sides. I think as you stated, human nature and history is where I am looking at this from. People have a tendency to be unable to sit and do nothing for extended periods of time. I believe we are purpose driven but purpose is pretty loosely defined here. Indulging the hypothetical (and arguably realistic in some circumstances) that AI rep…

I imagine you're not from anywhere near former fascism or communism. What historical evidence do we have to believe that these newfound capabilities are going to be distributed equitably?

Yeah definitely not fascist and I believe that is a control tactic not necessarily an equitability thing.

I don't think we have any evidence that anything will be done fairly. In fact the idea of Capitalism in a "fair system" has been objectively broken as incumbents apply pressure on free markets to suppress competition.

I think all forms have proved they can be broken where they no longer are "playing by the rules".

I was entertaining the hypothetical. I think the biggest unknown I feel which the article gently touches on is the unknown of how deeply this is trusted to make decisions that could be life-changing.

Imagine the danger of an AI model built to scan and understand a state or national level of policy that would be beneficial to society. Not only does that create a vector of manipulation to government that could be blindly trusted but it opens a cyber attack vector from other nation states.

I could see someone coming from a place of good without realizing that these functions are somewhat opaque without ceilings/floors which can increase deviation to elicit hallucinations.

Whether it is intentionally misused or a road to hell paved with good intentions it does feel treacherous. I do think there are many many democratizing aspects it offers but how do we stop mixing the baby and the bath water when we can't tell the difference.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#175

Post by CuriouslyC »

beloch wrote: post #155

"In terms of equity, AI will either be the greatest equalizer ever invented, or the worst source of injustice. The challenge is monumental. Even under the best circumstances, the transition to this new AI era will be one of the most turbulent times in human history. How will we use this technology to make the world a fairer place and keep it from widening the divide between rich and poor? " ---------------- One look…

This time will be different, because the oligarchs think that when the people finally come for them with pitchforks, they'll have an army of terminators to hide behind. That's why they're going YOLO full mask off.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#176

Post by recursive »

regular_trash wrote: post #148
recursive wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Construction for data centers?

Well clearly. But the above comment was about jobs that didn't exist before AI that AI will lead to the creation of. Tiktok arguably led to more datacenters being created, AI is not unique in this regard and it's silly to imply that datacenter jobs meaningfully contribute to employment on the same scale as the loss of jobs AI could potentially lead to.

Yeah. I didn't mean to imply that. I think it's going accelerate the concentration of wealth.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#178

Post by bryan0 »

beloch wrote: post #168
bryan0 wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One look at who is in the driver's seat should give you the answer to this question. I think you are fundamentally misunderstanding the question Gates is asking here. He’s not asking “how this going to play out?”, he’s asking “how can we impact how this will play out?” He makes specific proposals like AI token and robot taxes. I just wish people being cynical would at least comment on possible solutions. I think AI…

Is it cynical, or simply realistic, to recognize that AI CEO's won't ask for this kind of policy, and governments won't force anything upon the AI sector until things get very bad ? That, in my view, is a much bigger problem. We know what's coming but we won't do anything about it until after a lot of suffering occurs. Why can't we be more proactive?

Yes, I think we all agree AI companies should not be responsible or expected to come up with the best AI policies for society. Gates addresses this directly:

> It is great that some AI companies are proposing solutions to challenges raised by their own technology, but we should not expect them to lead the charge. Some of the issues are outside their area of expertise, and in a democratic society it’s not their role to decide these things. Instead, solutions should be developed through a public democratic process that includes elected officials, policymakers, educators, health workers, local officials, and community leaders.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#179

Post by andrewflnr »

_aavaa_ wrote: post #166
AuthAuth wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those emissions are nothing. Its a drop in the bucket compared with other industrial uses. A 50% reduction would change nothing, reduction to 0 would change nothing.

This is an absurd argument. Any one source is a drop in the bucket.

Any given optimization reduces running time of a program, but you should still focus on your hot loops.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#180

Post by Erem »

beloch wrote: post #168
bryan0 wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One look at who is in the driver's seat should give you the answer to this question. I think you are fundamentally misunderstanding the question Gates is asking here. He’s not asking “how this going to play out?”, he’s asking “how can we impact how this will play out?” He makes specific proposals like AI token and robot taxes. I just wish people being cynical would at least comment on possible solutions. I think AI…

Is it cynical, or simply realistic, to recognize that AI CEO's won't ask for this kind of policy, and governments won't force anything upon the AI sector until things get very bad ? That, in my view, is a much bigger problem. We know what's coming but we won't do anything about it until after a lot of suffering occurs. Why can't we be more proactive?

> and governments won't force anything upon the AI sector until things get very bad?

I think Mamdani and AOC would do it yesterday if they were in charge, and they're incredibly popular politicians to their constituents. More like them are waiting in the wings. So I think it's cynical rather than realistic.

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