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Fable and the end of the free lunch

dbreunig.com

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Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#171

Post by afavour »

geniium wrote: post #41
nchmy wrote: post #2

The real revolution is Deepseek v4 flash and similar models (GPT 5.6 Luna, muse spark 1.2, mimo, etc...) - Genuinely good performance for a tiny fraction of the cost of Fable and even GLM etc... I think a lot of people would be very content if they never got smarter, and just kept getting even cheaper/faster. Of course, both things continue to happen on a seemingly monthly basis

I was using ChatGPT voice during cooking to reflect on variations of a dishes i was preparing for years. It was so amazing to get advices and reflect that it struck me : I could use this model forever - it’s clever enough to help me tons and do lot of work for me - even if ai would stop evolving I would love it

That sounds ideal for cooking but I do wonder about programming. Models frozen in amber won’t ever learn new APIs as they become available and development will end up in some weird kind of stasis.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#172

Post by jorvi »

geniium wrote: post #41
nchmy wrote: post #2

The real revolution is Deepseek v4 flash and similar models (GPT 5.6 Luna, muse spark 1.2, mimo, etc...) - Genuinely good performance for a tiny fraction of the cost of Fable and even GLM etc... I think a lot of people would be very content if they never got smarter, and just kept getting even cheaper/faster. Of course, both things continue to happen on a seemingly monthly basis

I was using ChatGPT voice during cooking to reflect on variations of a dishes i was preparing for years. It was so amazing to get advices and reflect that it struck me : I could use this model forever - it’s clever enough to help me tons and do lot of work for me - even if ai would stop evolving I would love it

As long as these models constantly keep switching up things like the temperatures at which a steak will be medium rare or at which temperature to season cast iron, you will never be able to trust them for cooking. My mother ruined a nice waterfowl for Christmas by listening to Gemini.

And this is inherent to how LLMs work.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#173

Post by ben_w »

josephg wrote: post #61
r_lee wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

imo this is the problem some of these labs are gonna face, because open models will do this just fine and you as the consumer don't need to pay their training costs especially considering imo most use falls under this instead of those kind of tasks where you'd need the SOTA

Yeah. Sometimes I wonder who the long term financial winners will be from the ai boom. It might be ram / gpu manufacturers. Or whoever cracks putting LLMs on asics.

Fair competition under capitalism necessarily drives down profit margins; high profits are either temporary, or due to a lack of competition (e.g. someone has a patent or other IP, or regulatory capture). For example, while a lot of the economy depends on electricity: where competition exists, the profit margin for making electricity is not high; where monopolies or government mandates exist, it can be otherwise. This means that assuming anyone wins (i.e. no doom scenario), the winners are probably going to be those who can make best use of the models. Even chip makers will probably not get a long-term boost out of this; there's plenty of room for more efficient compute, and competitive advantages from e.g. ASML last as long as it takes to reinvent their tech, it's not a law of nature.

So, my plan would be to invest not in the AI companies, but in the economy as a whole who get to use the AI for their businesses.

Caution though, one thing which AI is already superhuman at is persuasion. Regulatory capture is likely even easier today than one might expect purely from the revenues of the AI companies.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#174

Post by 59nadir »

ShinyLeftPad wrote: post #143
CJefferson wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is why I’m trying to move to open Chinese models — because I will be able to use them forever, while the older Claude models which I genuinely enjoyed writing short stories with have now been deleted, replaced with hypothetically cleverer models which produce text everyone hates.

What about censorship? > I will be able to use them forever Where will you run them when powerful enough GPU and RAM are only sold to hyperscalers?

US models censor and restrict more things than Chinese models by quite a margin.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#175

Post by ben_w »

jorvi wrote: post #172
geniium wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was using ChatGPT voice during cooking to reflect on variations of a dishes i was preparing for years. It was so amazing to get advices and reflect that it struck me : I could use this model forever - it’s clever enough to help me tons and do lot of work for me - even if ai would stop evolving I would love it

As long as these models constantly keep switching up things like the temperatures at which a steak will be medium rare or at which temperature to season cast iron, you will never be able to trust them for cooking. My mother ruined a nice waterfowl for Christmas by listening to Gemini. And this is inherent to how LLMs work.

While yes, their current reliability is too spiky to be relied upon for a lot of things:

Any given failure is not inherent, they are all dependent failures; what is inherent (due to the SOTA in ML, perhaps or perhaps not the architecture) is how many examples they need to get good at stuff.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#176

Post by PcChip »

afavour wrote: post #171
geniium wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was using ChatGPT voice during cooking to reflect on variations of a dishes i was preparing for years. It was so amazing to get advices and reflect that it struck me : I could use this model forever - it’s clever enough to help me tons and do lot of work for me - even if ai would stop evolving I would love it

That sounds ideal for cooking but I do wonder about programming. Models frozen in amber won’t ever learn new APIs as they become available and development will end up in some weird kind of stasis.

embers are probably too hot to freeze anything

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#177

Post by r_lee »

icepush wrote: post #118
georgemcbay wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's going to be the shareholders of the first companies to crack AGI, and make human brains fully irrelevant economically. What makes you think if one or two AI labs can do this that the rest (including open model providers) won't be able to follow the same path a few weeks/months later? Even if you believe in the "Singularity", and believe it is coming soon, I still don't see any reason to believe the Singularity…

The first AGI that decides it doesn't want any more AGIs is the last one that gets created.

that would require both AGI and physical bodies for the model, and no kills witches or anything that could stop it, e.g. the military

everything would have to be kept under wraps, and you'd need to avoid the scrutiny of the US gov (they already wanna eval SOTA models in advance)

I don't get this idea that "AGI" will just manipulate everyone somehow into destroying the world or something

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#179

Post by bitmasher9 »

pigpop wrote: post #36

Reading this as someone who switched over to ChatGPT after (and largely because of the changes made in) the Fable release, it reads a bit naive. Not only do I find Sol to be as good, if not better than, Fable it is also faster, better behaved and has a much more coherent writing style. You also don't randomly get the Opus downgrade. OpenAI seems to be pulling this off due to their partnership with Cerebras so I would…

Anthropic -> OpenAI switcher here.

I fully expect I’ll switch back to Anthropic, or another model in the next 90 days. The fact that we are switching indicates that the models aren’t ready to be baked into silicon.

I wonder if they will ever been that good, or if the lifespan of silicon is longer than the lifespan of a model before it needs to be retrained.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#180

Post by freepiai »

m3kw9 wrote: post #33
freepiai wrote: post #32

I've been offering Deepseek V4 Flash for free in www.freepi.ai and I've started using it as my main driver as well. Besides trying to dogfood my own product I've hit a wall in terms of my patience with a)how slow fable is b)how expensive fable is. Not to mention how often it refuses totally legitimate work. So yeah- I've moved to DeepSeek and I actually ask the freepi harness to delegate planning to fable but then mo…

looks like you haven't tried openai or Sol, or even luna (max)

Oh I have, they are good (sol terribly overbuilds though). Luna is good as well. That said Deepseek v4 flash is generally faster, and IMHO a bit smarter than luna, and it's definitely cheaper. (If you use my harness freepi.ai it's free!). So that tips the scales for me.
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