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Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

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Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#171

Post by llama052 »

nzrf wrote: post #69
happyPersonR wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And watch … $5 says they have nothing to do with the ram because even if there was enough power there’s no use case for this much spend If I had to guess they’re just buying up ram to keep others from having it same way meta, Google, etc hired up engineers to keep others from having them

I’ve been wondering this if you buy up all the memory you can ensure the competition cannot compete with huge investment raising the bar for competition. Of course this all sounds all conspiracy theory. Though without a place to power this or put it makes me wonder this.

It also would be a huge win for the memory companies to agree to this, considering they will make more money with less supply. Seems interesting to me.

Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#172

Post by geodel »

benlivengood wrote: post #142
minraws wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In an absolutely free market? sure. But we don't live in an absolutely free market, the memory manufacturers have refused to budge on creating new fabs until recently out of caution and to be able to create a demand excess. They have slow rolled rollouts and everything, if there wasn't CXMT they would probably still wouldn't have budged on building new fabs for a while longer. You can absolutely price fix/manufacture…

Feel free to spin up a fab and undercut the current prices, I'd certainly appreciate it! I don't know if I would personally fund such a venture though, for roughly the same reason existing manufacturers aren't expanding production.

How about I threaten you with mandatory 10 Electron applications / AI agent harness on your computer? Now you must be ready to fund my venture :)

Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#173

Post by lasthemy »

solarengineer wrote: post #113
cm2187 wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand the distinction you are making. If you have a massive excess of demand ready to pay any price, and a limited supply, of course the sellers will take advantage, that's how any market works. They can do that because of the lack of supply. Over the long term demand will rationalise and supply will adjust. But in between there is a squeeze, and the right price is the maximum price buyers are willing to…

"that the limited supply goes to the buyer who need it the most" - I would say that the limited supply goes to the buyer who can afford to pay higher than others. Someone may need the memory more, but may not have the deeper pockets to pay for it like NVidia and Apple might.

I would have framed it as "buyer who can get the most leverage from it", which equates to being able to spend more. It's an economic argument, not a values argument.

Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#174

Post by wmf »

stuxnet79 wrote: post #57
tedggh wrote: post #56

I still hope all this will come crashing down, there will be an oversupply of components and RAM will be cheaper than paper.

While I share your optimism, I still don't fully understand why a crash will necessarily lead to an oversupply and lower prices for regular consumers. The components / RAM you are referencing are for enterprise use / data centers which in my limited understanding is not a 1:1 swap for the kind of components that your smartphone / car / fridge / gaming rig use. I would love for someone more informed than me to spell o…

Memory fabs make a mix of DDR/LPDDR/GDDR/HBM and they continuously adjust the mix to market demand. If demand for HBM drops they will start making more consumer RAM.

Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#175

Post by z_rho_one »

After RAM prices climbed 200% between August and November of last year, a store associate at Micro Center encouraged me to buy some RAM sticks if I needed them because "prices might continue to rise for a few years". I told him that was ridiculous and nobody would tolerate it if prices got higher. How wrong I was...

Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#176

Post by afavour »

cm2187 wrote: post #111
1saadcodes wrote: post #105

500% in a year is just insane. I knew RAM prices were going up, but $3k+ for 128GB of DDR5 makes me wonder how much of this is actually AI demand, and how much is this just manufacturers taking advantage of it. They have done this in the past after all

I don't understand the distinction you are making. If you have a massive excess of demand ready to pay any price, and a limited supply, of course the sellers will take advantage, that's how any market works. They can do that because of the lack of supply. Over the long term demand will rationalise and supply will adjust. But in between there is a squeeze, and the right price is the maximum price buyers are willing to…

> I don't understand the distinction you are making.

It's pretty simple. In a correctly regulated market the sellers are in competition with each other so there is a limit to how much they can increase prices, since they'll just lose business to their competitor.

In a poorly regulated market that allows competitors to collude with each other to raise prices by the same amount, they'll inflate prices much further.

Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#178

Post by mschild »

lvzw wrote: post #147
ncallaway wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you have a massive excess of demand ready to pay any price, and a limited supply, of course the sellers will take advantage, that's how any market work The question is how quickly the supply adjusts. In a free market, the suppliers would respond to the price signal by quickly expanding their production to meet the elevated demand. But a market captured by a cartel will be much slower to expand the supply. So, th…

Memory fab build out times are years not months. The existing ones already run 24/7. If these companies could pull more supply out of thin air they would, but they cannot.

Would they?

Cartels aren't known for massively increasing production to satisfy all demand. Far from it I'd say, they're more likely to expand supply to such a level that they can still reap massive profits. Very few countries/companies have the knowhow and willingness to be able to build more.

OPEC is a perfect example of this behaviour. They set hearly production goals to keep prices high. Or the Quebec Maple Syrup Producers organization that limits the amount of syrup a farmer can produce and sell in a year to keep prices high.

Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#179

Post by minraws »

cm2187 wrote: post #128
minraws wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In an absolutely free market? sure. But we don't live in an absolutely free market, the memory manufacturers have refused to budge on creating new fabs until recently out of caution and to be able to create a demand excess. They have slow rolled rollouts and everything, if there wasn't CXMT they would probably still wouldn't have budged on building new fabs for a while longer. You can absolutely price fix/manufacture…

I think everyone is aware now that you don't build a fab by snapping your fingers, and you need to amortise it over many years. The said manufacturers are just out of a massive slump in demand during covid, when they were selling at a loss, and these cycles happened many times in this industry. It is understandable that they don't jump all-in on the AI bandwagon, which, god knows where it is going and for how long. I…

I feel like I and HN live in different worlds,

https://www.blocksandfiles.com/ai-ml/2026/01/20/samsung-sk-h...

Big manufactures have absolutely cut production of lower margin products and it's not like they can re-purpose all of the equipment used for it for HBM yet. edit They can definitely focus more resource because of it on HBM though.

Things have improved a bit since govts are starting to get angry.

Tldr; no one is cutting the production of high margin stuff, but low margin stuff can go and die, because it's not a free market it's a stock market these companies want to show off better margins in every unit there is no reason to keep inefficient things running when not doing it pays more.

They just don't want 30-40% margins anymore. That is not free market that is quite literally serving their own interests because they know there is a monopoly.

All big memory manufacturers are heavily supported by the govt, that's what has made them the monopolies they are Micron supported by USA (they crushed Japan's memory industry for it), and Korean giants are more tangled up with the govt than well most people in US would realize.

Somehow people think free market means anything goes, which honestly is where we stand today so I don't blame anyone.

But using govts to crush competitions and build yourself up on subsidies and similar isn't really free markets. China hasn't been able to grow a significant memory chip industry yet because of lack of EUV machines and similar technologies blocked by the US, which is also not "free market".

As for WD, and Sandisk separating I feel like this was more mutual and they new HDDs or SSDs being together was a distraction for both. Which feels more strategic, think of it like this, the shareholders who had the shares how hold shares in both and together they might have likely been worth less so shareholders made money.

Aka good for free market. I don't see how that relates to the actual memory crunch issue more broadly.

Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#180

Post by Iolaum »

carlosjobim wrote: post #169
dist-epoch wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is also caused by the FREE market - consolidation, all markets tend to consolidate around a few companies due to economy of scale. The fix is regulation - we are going to have NOT-FREE-MARKET electricity, NOT-FREE-MARKET water supply, .... for vital services. I'm not talking about you, it's funny to see anti-regulation HN complain about a FREE MARKET working as such. Suddenly it's not so fun where you are at the…

Everybody needs electricity and water, but nobody needs more RAM except for companies. And they can pay for it.

Hello!? Us consumers need it too.
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