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Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

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171–180 of 424 posts

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

for a while i was using the sports gambling apps to make lots of little bets. it was fun to put $0.50 on a game I normally wouldn't watch and tune in with a real rooting interest. i never bet more that $1 on a game because I knew that I would really dislike losing 'real money'. the fact was that the stakes were completely irrelevant to me. the value came from definitively and publicly taking a side. if you're the fan…

I'd do something fairly similarly, but in a sort of emotional hedge. If in a fight I was really rooting for one guy, I'd put a relatively small amount of money on the other. Ok 'my guy' lost, but hey - dinner's free tonight! It's also quite remarkable how often arbitrage opportunities come up where you can put bets on both sides with a guaranteed win. You'd think they'd all get eaten up by bots, but that's not at all…

Those are the dark patterns.

Give a player that is hesitant a good opportunity to place a pretty much guaranteed winning bet and try to get them to cross their threshold. Once crossed, it’s much harder not to cross it again for most people.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#172
post #12

I finally gave in to my curiosity and downloaded Kalshi last week to place a few bets on the World Cup. I was blown away how easy it was. I placed a bet with real money within 5 minutes of downloading the app. They allow instant deposits with credit card, and ID verification was real time. I can’t imagine that the extreme accessibility and the typical dark patterns deployed by every popular app won’t eventually end b…

There's a lot of proposed legislation trying to expand mobile gambling too:

https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/114277/massachusetts-ig...

https://sportsbettingalliance.org/take-action/ohio_igaming/

https://sportsbettingalliance.org/take-action/texas/

https://mgaleg.maryland.gov/mgawebsite/Legislation/Details/h...

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read a book this year about sports gambling in the US [1], and it points out how nasty and predatory it is. I think "prediction markets" have even less regulation? I would talk to my sports fan buddies at work and they would say "oh, just how sportsbooks in Vegas operate already", but this is on-demand, in your face, constantly nudging you to bet with dark patterns and "comps". I used to want sports gambling legal…

A bit of a tangent, but many like the moneylines isn't because of gambling but because it tells you who's the favorite/underdog and by what margin. It's like in the equivalent of a chess game of knowing the player's ratings, which itself can directly lead to a nominal moneyline, but in most sports there's no formal predictive rating system.

There could easily be. There's no reason you couldn't publish some Elo-like thing on teams or players, if that was your interest - you don't need gambling to get a good idea of who the favorite is. But the interest is in gambling, so most people inclined to publish such a thing probably bet themselves/sell it as a product to gamblers.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#174

The WSJ ran an earlier article stating that unless you have access to a lot of data, computing power, and statisticians, you're going to lose on those bets.

It’s gambling, and the house always wins.

There is no house on polymarket, it's pvp.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well try to make a withdrawal and see how convinient that might be. Internet casinos are usually easy to get money into but hard to get money out of.

It works just fine. It’s not a casino in the regular sense because you’re betting against other people, not the house.

In a casino you can bet against other people too. Nonetheless, the house always wins and takes its cut.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#176
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Predictions markets are more regulated than sports betting, because the events being predicted are wider, so they will naturally touch on a whole lot more regulation. For example, can someone place a bet on an event that X person will be shot? That question now touches on a whole range of laws regarding murder, life insurance, incitation to violence, free speech? That you just don't touch at all in sports betting.

Lol. This is some quality sv psychosis content. But ok, let’s follow your thought process. Couldn’t someone place a bet on a sporting event and then murder a key player? Wouldn’t all the same laws be triggered? Laws against criminal activity aren’t regulations. Regulations are limitations and oversight requirements on business activities.

> Couldn’t someone place a bet on a sporting event and then murder a key player?

Probably not, no. I would be very surprised if the sports betting shops didn't have some sort of "force majeure" clauses.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#177
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Gambling in the real world involved friction. That plus a certain social stigma if you gambled outside of “mainstream” casinos. And this helped weed out all but the most addicted gamblers. Now there is no friction, the platforms are free to create dark patterns to encourage problem gambling, and the vice has zero social cost.

The dark patterns aren't just in online gambling. Nowdays, a lot of brick-and-mortar casinos encourage, or even require, clients to create an account (often framed as a "members club" or "rewards card"), which is used to track the client's activity at the casino and target them with promotions tailored to their behavior. These can be used in some really troubling ways, e.g. by identifying clients who may have a gambl…

The worst dark pattern I saw for gambling was in Lithuania: in supermarkets, they sell scratch cards right next to the credit card terminal. If you are a recovering addict, you just can't avoid the trigger, at the worst moment.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#178
post #12

I finally gave in to my curiosity and downloaded Kalshi last week to place a few bets on the World Cup. I was blown away how easy it was. I placed a bet with real money within 5 minutes of downloading the app. They allow instant deposits with credit card, and ID verification was real time. I can’t imagine that the extreme accessibility and the typical dark patterns deployed by every popular app won’t eventually end b…

I read a book this year about sports gambling in the US [1], and it points out how nasty and predatory it is. I think "prediction markets" have even less regulation? I would talk to my sports fan buddies at work and they would say "oh, just how sportsbooks in Vegas operate already", but this is on-demand, in your face, constantly nudging you to bet with dark patterns and "comps". I used to want sports gambling legal…

It only really struck me in adulthood: the professional sports, particularly baseball and American football, are basically gambling delivery vehicles. They’re packed with nonstop betting opportunities for the duration of the events. Football games ceremonially start off with a coin toss, which is very much on the nose. The ‘fun game’ aspect of the sports are very difficult to find among all the bettable events.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#179
post #12

I finally gave in to my curiosity and downloaded Kalshi last week to place a few bets on the World Cup. I was blown away how easy it was. I placed a bet with real money within 5 minutes of downloading the app. They allow instant deposits with credit card, and ID verification was real time. I can’t imagine that the extreme accessibility and the typical dark patterns deployed by every popular app won’t eventually end b…

Yeah, and also inevitable that a product designed to so efficiently separate people from their money would be overrun by grifters and scammers from the influencer/creator world.

What does make this instance perhaps a bit surprising is that it's Polymarket themselves who are paying those grifters.

They're an incredibly well known US based company targeting US based consumers in a way that is patently illegal. It seems almost unbelievably dumb that they would do this even by the often grotty standards of gambling companies.

They must have realised this would be found out and that, when it was, an investigation and enforcement action would follow? I guess maybe some of the creators will find themselves in hot water as well?

I really don't understand what the long term play is here, other than to be litigated out of business.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The live scammers targeting kids are pretty vile: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYTPI57GLac Seems like it's just a game of whack-a-mole, nothing is really being done to stop scammers from making new accounts and continuing their scams.

This is the other side of the coin when it comes to the push for ID verification.

Another way is to simply disallow certain ways to make money. It doesn't have to be complicated and it shouldn't be controversial.
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