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Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

openai.com

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Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#171

I have a feeling that as soon as OpenAI and Anthropic stocks are up for grabs, the market will implode.

Maybe lay down some concrete numbers and timelines, hold yourself accountable, otherwise you risk confirmation bias with your predictions like millions before you.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's nice way to say "invested in AI that turned out to be flop nobody wants to pay for so they are selling spare capacity" Both takes are true. xAI invested in capacity that was supposed to yield frontier-model-maker margins. Grok failed to generate enough interest. So now they're selling it. That's absolutely a good business, in a way that's more certain than the frontier-model one. But it's also lower margin,…

What I don't understand is how it's even a good low-margin business. Maybe I'm missing something but: Data centers (before recently) are low margin businesses because all the inputs are commodities: you buy power (joules), power (PDU), cooling hardware, physical racks, etc.. from the same vendors as everyone else. Worse, your biggest potential clients have the scale to just build it on their own and cut you out becau…

It's like buying a ticket for a concert, realizing you can't go and that you can resell it for more than what you paid.

You're right that long term it should stabilize into a low margin business.

Elon is also much less risk averse than others, which helps to build stuff fast, possibly cheaper, pushing legality to the limit. Colossus was definitely built much faster than anything else. I think building datacenters suits him better than a pure software play, where "move fast break things" is already the norm.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#175

I have a feeling that as soon as OpenAI and Anthropic stocks are up for grabs, the market will implode.

> the market Which market? The stock market? Or the tech stocks? Or something else?

> Which market? The stock market? Or the tech stocks?

Both.

Across the entire stock market, not a ton of bright spots _except_ for Tech.

Take a look here: https://finviz.com/map?t=sec_all&st=w52

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#176

The timing of all of these IPOs has a smell similar to both the US Mortgage company trend shortly before interest rates spiked and all those companies started shedding jobs progressively since, and/or the DotCom IPO boom. Where we land remains to be seen.

While I agree on the smell I think that the situations are really different. I am not an economist but I think that other than the situation of the huge amount of money in play we are in a really different case. The general user (and I have noticed it especially with today's WWDC) basically doesn't get any benefit from AI (neither LLMs, image generation or photo editing). They were promised living like in Wall-e in 5 years and they are basically still living the same life. White collar jobs slightly benefited from the LLMs and same with programmers (while many say that they can get huge leverage the public results of what software companies produce didn't get the same benefit). Everyone knows the market will crash, nobody knows how much.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#177

The timing of all of these IPOs has a smell similar to both the US Mortgage company trend shortly before interest rates spiked and all those companies started shedding jobs progressively since, and/or the DotCom IPO boom. Where we land remains to be seen.

Got to payout the investors before the burst

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A very unserious tone from probably the most consequential company of our lifetimes. It's vibing all the way to the top I guess.

I prefer this tone to fake marketing speak. If they’d done a proper job here they’d be accused of having GPT write it. At least this is organic laziness!

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