I have a feeling that as soon as OpenAI and Anthropic stocks are up for grabs, the market will implode.
Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
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Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#172Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#173Earlier quoted context omitted.
> That's nice way to say "invested in AI that turned out to be flop nobody wants to pay for so they are selling spare capacity" Both takes are true. xAI invested in capacity that was supposed to yield frontier-model-maker margins. Grok failed to generate enough interest. So now they're selling it. That's absolutely a good business, in a way that's more certain than the frontier-model one. But it's also lower margin,…
What I don't understand is how it's even a good low-margin business. Maybe I'm missing something but: Data centers (before recently) are low margin businesses because all the inputs are commodities: you buy power (joules), power (PDU), cooling hardware, physical racks, etc.. from the same vendors as everyone else. Worse, your biggest potential clients have the scale to just build it on their own and cut you out becau…
You're right that long term it should stabilize into a low margin business.
Elon is also much less risk averse than others, which helps to build stuff fast, possibly cheaper, pushing legality to the limit. Colossus was definitely built much faster than anything else. I think building datacenters suits him better than a pure software play, where "move fast break things" is already the norm.
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#174Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#175I have a feeling that as soon as OpenAI and Anthropic stocks are up for grabs, the market will implode.
> the market Which market? The stock market? Or the tech stocks? Or something else?
Both.
Across the entire stock market, not a ton of bright spots _except_ for Tech.
Take a look here: https://finviz.com/map?t=sec_all&st=w52
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#176The timing of all of these IPOs has a smell similar to both the US Mortgage company trend shortly before interest rates spiked and all those companies started shedding jobs progressively since, and/or the DotCom IPO boom. Where we land remains to be seen.
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#177The timing of all of these IPOs has a smell similar to both the US Mortgage company trend shortly before interest rates spiked and all those companies started shedding jobs progressively since, and/or the DotCom IPO boom. Where we land remains to be seen.
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#178Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#179Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#180Earlier quoted context omitted.
A very unserious tone from probably the most consequential company of our lifetimes. It's vibing all the way to the top I guess.
I prefer this tone to fake marketing speak. If they’d done a proper job here they’d be accused of having GPT write it. At least this is organic laziness!