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Where does next-token prediction leave us?

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Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#171

Post by weatherlite »

customguy wrote: post #168
weatherlite wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I want that type of sadness back, please. Right now I'm relieved if anything to know I won't see 2126 and beyond, but that's not because I'm inherently pessimistic, I came to this world optimistic as can be. This is normal I think. You grew up. Not wanting to live forever is totally sensible.

I didn't think about "forever", then or now. It's more about seeing the next few hundred years as an exciting time of progress and adventures, of ideas -- rather than just a snuff movie I'd rather pass on. And "growing up" kind of can mean everything and nothing. I noticed that humans prey on humans, destroy and poison animal species and each other for nothing, for entertainment or to compensate for psychological iss…

You're not wrong. A bit too bleak perhaps but yeah everything you said is mostly factual. Society is a hypocritical shit show it is what it is.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#172

Post by NoGravitas »

birdsongs wrote: post #71
osigurdson wrote: post #45

The title is a little misleading as it sounds like it might hint at the end state of next token prediction - i.e. will we reach AGI with it and so on. Instead, this is entirely about "means of production" and "class war" stuff. While that may be coming, it isn't clear that this is the most likely outcome, its just the most pessimistic one. The author might as well have included that it will "be the end of the human r…

I would argue we're already in a pseudo class war. Most of us in tech are isolated so far, but the middle class is disappearing worldwide, and the wealth gulf is growing. Most propaganda seems to be centered on increasing division along gender / race / sexuality boundaries, so that infighting keeps people from looking up for too long. But I might just be overly radicalised.

All of history is the history of class war. The post-WWII social-democratic years were a kind of truce, but truces in the class war are always unstable.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#173

Post by aembleton »

Gigachad wrote: post #85
rzmmm wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or average joe becomes DIY plumber with help of chatGPT and there is a lot less demand for plumbers then.

ChatGPT is probably less useful than youtube for this kind of stuff.

Might help to find the right video though

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#174

Post by brookst »

selcuka wrote: post #31
brookst wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How accessible were covid vaccines?

Were the vaccines accessible because of the sympathy towards the people at the bottom, or so that they can go back to work as soon as possible? Medicine is subsidised when there is a global pandemic, but not when individual lives are at stake.

I don’t really find it fruitful to speculate about motives in complex systems. The claim was that average people don’t benefit from medical advances, which seems clearly untrue.

Now, if we’re shifting to why advances are often generally available, sure, there are lots of plausible theories that may or may be true, in whole or part, and which we’ll never prove one way or the other. Believe what makes you happy, or angry, or whatever mood you prefer.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#175

Post by brookst »

altmanaltman wrote: post #35
brookst wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not coding that’s being democratized, it’s the ability to create games, tools, etc, that require coding. Suppose it became possible to buy a Ferrari (not that new hideous one) for $5k. That would be democratizing Ferrari ownership: far more people could do it. I’m sure there would be investment bankers who would complain it devalues their hard work (I am not a fan of those people, but it is notoriously long hour…

Wait a second, you say its not coding thats getting democratized. It is the "ability to create" software... hm i wonder what would be the ability to write software? Maybe something like software engineering? Also your example with Ferrari is completely flawed, and I dont give a fuck about what investment bankers think or do. What are you even talking about here? Please explain the first part more than you hand waved…

The whole point of AI coding is (partial) decoupling of software from human coding.

You might as well ask what the ability is to create arbitrary images to any specification, if not painting? But AI image gen is not painting.

It’s painful and confusing to those who’ve mistaken the tool for the product. Why, you ordered that pizza for delivery, that’s not cooking! No, but it is eating.

Same thing with software. Some people just want the outcome, not the process, and it’s pointless to whinge about how it’s somehow less legitimate.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#176

Post by overgard »

zozbot234 wrote: post #122
weatherlite wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps the feeling is that in a competitive society (which most of us live in) as long as things aren't collapsing I don't see why a plumber/doctor should care if a bunch of lawyers and software devs will be out of a job. They will become relatively wealthier even if their income is taking a hit. Their purchasing power should rise if most of white collar work is collapsing.

They would become wealthier in a real sense, since the services that used to be provided by the scarce labor of lawyers and software devs would now be far cheaper. In fact due to Jevons' paradox, even lawyers and software devs would enjoy far higher living standards due to AI. The boost in efficiency just creates a spike in demand for the remaining human component of the job, no matter how tiny.

How would cheaper software development or lawyers massively raise standard of living for other people? Most people that need their standard of living improved don't even own computers, they generally don't have access to the capital needed to start a businesses, and they have no use for a lawyer outside of criminal matters.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#177

Post by overgard »

yorwba wrote: post #126
weatherlite wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps the feeling is that in a competitive society (which most of us live in) as long as things aren't collapsing I don't see why a plumber/doctor should care if a bunch of lawyers and software devs will be out of a job. They will become relatively wealthier even if their income is taking a hit. Their purchasing power should rise if most of white collar work is collapsing.

Yes, widespread automation of knowledge work is unlikely to decrease total production, so all the goods and services people currently demand will still be provided, but the power dynamic of who is consuming and who is providing might flip around. So a bunch of formerly upwardly-mobile people could end up at the bottom of the social hierarchy while others whom they used to look down upon will be able to afford servant…

I see little evidence that any social role reversal is going to occur. This technology is soon going to price out average to poor people when they have to pay true token costs. It might be the case that only the rich and powerful have access to the powerful models.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#178

Post by overgard »

Gigachad wrote: post #76
fny wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think its entirely class. I've met many people who have convinced themselves they have some special sauce--even in software! And even those who are insulated like doctors and plumbers don't realize they're still at risk from second order effects. What happens when half of their customers are broke? That possibility is not an exaggeration. Even if everyone re-skills over night, people will default on their mor…

Even if you are a plumber and we don’t automate plumbing, you’ll have half the population displaced and switching to plumbing. Everything that isn’t automated will be over saturated.

Our sinks will never clog again, at least.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#179

Post by overgard »

gspr wrote: post #125
exfalso wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agree on the knock-on effects. My prediction is deflation. Money will be worth more and more. As a consequence governments will have to step in to ensure inflation(with e.g. universal income), otherwise the economy stops. But honestly I'm not sure this will be enough for people to spend on e.g. restaurants or activities or oh I don't know, children. I think this will imply a freezing or even stepping back on the Masl…

> What I'm mostly concerned about is not even economic, it's psychological. With nothing to do, people will not have purpose, and bored people are a gunpowder keg. I'm not so sure about this one. The powerful in a society like the one you describe would surely know about that potential powderkeg and supply ample cheap entertainment to dull the edge. Then we'll have a society of mostly dull, idle, useless people with…

The powerful people in our society are mostly idiots. The more they're in front of a microphone the more damage they do for themselves.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#180

Post by jstummbillig »

customguy wrote: post #162
jstummbillig wrote: post #37

> So, where does next token prediction leave us? In a perpetual loop of rent-seeking for something made with humanity’s collective output of centuries. It is not a good place for an individual to be in, regardless of class. In what way is this different to electricity?

In what way is it similar?

So, where does electricity leave us? In a perpetual loop of rent-seeking for something made with humanity’s collective output of centuries. It is not a good place for an individual to be in, regardless of class.
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